Filski

Don't know if this is new to anyone, seems to be 2 weeks old http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/bardarbunga/vmr_20141015_mtg_fp.pptx

Just eyeballing the graph below, but it would seem that large quakes are growing in number, but reducing slightly in strength. Have been reading comments that they are increasingly shallow. There are several conclusions one could draw from that I imagine.

Iceland radar showing persistent echo over bardarbunga since 9pm?

The unsmoothed GPS trace is going nuts, most erratic since it was placed. Could be 2 things. 1. Weather, related to that which suddenly obscured to cams, 2. The surface is indeed moving following the last EQs. This might signal water has penetrated the cap and, as the wind is blowing towards the webcams, steam might be obscuring the view. I suspect a full blown eruption would turn the cams orange rather than black

The gradient of the line on the Bardabunga GPS is not as steep the last 24hrs. No big drops with the recent quakes either. Potential sign that deflation is slowing?

The GPS just keeps dropping. Disappearing into a crevasse? Nearly bedtime here, hope I don't miss anything.

If it is an ice quake then it's not like any other. 70sq km in area and 700m thick. I don't know if the maths works or not. The GPS is still dropping rapidly though. Although the timescale will even things out, it looks like there is a 80cm in only a couple of hrs now.

Finally showing up, depth as 0.1m. Theory: This is an ice quake. As the bottom of the caldera sinks predominantly in the NE, occasionally these big shallow ones are the ice sliding in that direction. The depth of the collapse in that quake is showing as 60-70cm - possibly the largest single drop yet.

Significant drop on the GPS, need to wait a bit though to see how much as the trend line makes the short time frame much larger. I think it may be around 60cm though, not the 1m+ its currently showing. It continues to lessen, maybe 40cms?

Here we go... GPS plot for Bardarbunga http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/bardarbunga/

The GPS measurements on the Caldera aren't dropping at the moment (sorry, it's on livestream and I can't find the source), after nearly continuous subsidence for a while. It would be wrong to say it's definitely building up to something, it's just stationary. Still though... Could be signs that the eruption is going to fizzle out. But it could be signs that something is preventing further subsidence - a change in what goes on below. Note that tremor is rising though... We just have to wait and see.

Scale is hard to judge. The mounds/ fountains look maybe 10-20m high to me and I have to remind myself it is 50-70m high - which is staggering really.

Sudden jump in inflation?

ruv.is/frett/botn-bardarbunguoskju-seig-um-25-sm Translation of 1st 2 paragraphs

Automatic I assume, Depths and strength vary according to where you look. Date Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Quality Location Saturday 13.09.2014 07:58:15 64.673 -17.404 1.1 km 2.6 90.1 6.9 km ENE of Bárðarbunga