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JohnAcc

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Everything posted by JohnAcc

  1. Dewpoint 1.0 In Wolverhampton,We really need to see this drop to around 0 if we are going to see any decent snowfall
  2. Every chance of a below average month now. Quite remarkable the current reversals in temps. Rgds, John
  3. Current model output suggests that a low 5's finish for December will us with a 10.49 annual CET. The 10th warmest on record. However given the first 4 months of the year it is a marked turnaround. Rgds, John
  4. Another big 0.5c drop yesterday with further drops to come over the next few days. I'll keep this graph updated to see how close the GFS has called this one. Rgds, John
  5. I'm not sure high 5's is favourable at the moment. As indicated earlier if the models are picking up correctly on the westward movement of the high then low 5's looks to be favourite. I agree that on current model outputs around 4.7 by the 20th looks about right. Rgds, John
  6. Hi Joneseye, Yes Kevin called this one earlier yesterday morning. A 0.4 drop yesterday and from what I can see a further 0.4 drop per day for the next 4 or 5 days (depending on cloud cover). I fear my 6.1 and your 5.9 may, just may be a tad on the "high" side. Rgds, John
  7. The ECM and GFS are both now picking up on the trend for the high to retrogress westwards over the UK in the later time frames which will result in us having continued seasonal ground temps for a while longer. I have updated yesterdays projections with this mornings 06z run and it will be interesting to see where we end up and how close the GFS is. I seem to recall SF saying last month that the GFS pretty much nailed temps from quite an early period. This mornings output would return us a CET bang on the 71-00 average Rgds, John
  8. This is how I see Dec finishing up from here. I would estimate a 5.4 / 5.5 ish finish which will be slightly above the 10 year mean. It's very early doors yet and obviously subject to change depending on how long the block holds and whether we end up in a southerly flow after / (If) the high sinks. Rgds, John PS Does anyone know where I can find the running mean through the month for the 61-90 and 71-00 averages?
  9. After looking at the current model output I agree that my lower range was probably too low. I think on reflection 10.5 - 10.75 is where my range would be and I would be favouring a 10.6 return. Cooler than last year (Joke)
  10. There have been 41 instances in the CET series where Dec has returned a higher figure than Nov. The last 10 being:- 1993 (Cold Nov @ 4.6) 1988 (Mild Dec @ 7.5) 1985 (Cold Nov @ 4.1 plus mild Dec @ 6.3) 1974 (Mild Dec @ 8.1) 1971 1965 1942 1934 1923 1921 Rgds, John
  11. I used the following figures:- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 7.00 5.80 7.20 11.20 11.90 15.10 15.20 15.40 13.80 10.90 7.20 which gives me 120.7 cumulative degrees. If i add on 7.4 it takes me to 128.1 cumulative degrees which, divided by 12 gives me 10.68. Have I made a school boy error somewhere?
  12. If 10.68 is the current projection are you saying that your predicting a Dec CET of 7.4c (warmest since 74?) if so, a very bold statement this early in the month. For me the range is still anything from 10.35 - 10.75. However as we stand, I would lean towards the higher end of that scale. Rgds, John
  13. Updated List.................. acbrixton 06.5c, 180 Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080 AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140 Barry 03.1c, 019 beng 04.0c, 155 Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170 BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091 Cal 05.8c, 105 cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123 chionomaniac 04.7c, 066 Craig Evans 08.8c, 004 Cymru 05.8c, 056 damianslaw 05.2c, 109 David Snow 06.1c, 057 derby4life 05.3c, 077 Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122 don 06.0c, 103 DR Hosking 06.2c, 159 Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102 eddie 06.4c, 095 fishdude 04.0c, 040 Gavin P 05.1c, 130 Glacier Point 06.0c, 162 Great Plum 06.0c, 160 happy days 07.1c, 156 HighPressure 06.3c, 173 HomerJ 05.2c, 107 IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169 JACKONE 06.1c, 177 James M 05.5c, 100 Johnacc 06.1c, 163 Joneseye 05.9c, 166 Jonnie G 05.7c, 145 Kentish Man 06.6c, 119 kold weather 06.1c, 141 La Nina 04.4c, 111 LadyPakal 05.2c, 161 mam500 03.7c, 049 Mammatus 06.4c, 181 mark bayley 05.8c, 168 mark forster 06.3c, 054 MarkH 06.2c, 176 Matty M 06.4c, 058 Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136 memories of 63 05.0c, 034 Mike W 06.0c, 074 mk13 06.1c, 126 Mr Data 05.9c, 084 Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158 mufc 04.2c, 027 ned 06.1c, 157 neforum2 05.4c, 045 Nick F 06.0c, 139 noggin 04.9c, 117 Norrance 05.2c, 142 Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047 Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060 osmposm 05.2c, 164 Paul 06.1c, 172 Paul B 06.2c, 042 Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135 paul tall 01.1c, 061 PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013 phil n.warks 05.7c, 175 Plate 05.1c, 026 Polar Continental 03.5c, 167 Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late) Potent Gust 04.8c, 025 pottyprof 05.8c, 083 Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178 Redshift 06.1c, 153 reef 06.6c, 154 richarddx7 04.1c, 031 Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071 Rollo 05.9c, 079 shuggee 05.8c, 127 skwales100 04.5c, 014 slipknotsam 06.0c, 120 Snooz 04.8c, 075 snowmaiden 05.1c, 065 Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108 snowsure 04.8c, 106 Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076 Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082 Stargazer 06.2c, 115 Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124 Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110 Steve Murr 06.3c, 137 SteveB 05.2c, 055 stormchaser 05.3c, 193 (1 day late) Stormforce10 02.1c, 009 Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152 Stu London 05.5c, 150 suffolkboy 05.1c, 068 summer blizzard 05.2c, 131 Summer of 95 04.9c, 125 sundog 05.2c, 064 swfc 06.5c, 067 Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171 tesaro 06.3c, 104 The Enforcer 03.8c, 007 The Pit 05.9c, 097 Timbo 03.8c, 069 TimmyH 07.0c, 174 TomSE20 05.9c, 116 ukmoose 07.0c, 143 WBSH 06.0c, 144 windswept 06.3c, 059 xerxes 05.2c, 072 Rgds, John
  14. Here is a graph of the December CET plotted against the Dec AO indicies. Current projections for the Dec AO are to be in the region of -0.6 to -0.8 which would point to a CET of around 4.9c. A very bold call from where we are today! Rgds, John
  15. Here is the list with post number added. acbrixton 06.5c, 180 Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080 AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140 Barry 03.1c, 019 beng 04.0c, 155 Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170 BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091 Cal 05.8c, 105 cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123 chionomaniac 04.7c, 066 Craig Evans 08.8c, 004 Cymru 05.8c, 056 damianslaw 05.2c, 109 David Snow 06.1c, 057 derby4life 05.3c, 077 Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122 don 06.0c, 103 DR Hosking 06.2c, 159 Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102 eddie 06.4c, 095 fishdude 04.0c, 040 Gavin P 05.1c, 130 Glacier Point 06.0c, 162 Great Plum 06.0c, 160 happy days 07.1c, 156 HighPressure 06.3c, 173 HomerJ 05.2c, 107 IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169 JACKONE 06.1c, 177 James M 05.5c, 100 Johnacc 06.1c, 163 Joneseye 05.9c, 166 Jonnie G 05.7c, 145 Kentish Man 06.6c, 119 kold weather 06.1c, 141 La Nina 04.4c, 111 LadyPakal 05.2c, 161 mam500 03.7c, 049 Mammatus 06.4c, 181 mark bayley 05.8c, 168 mark forster 06.3c, 054 MarkH 06.2c, 176 Matty M 06.4c, 058 Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136 memories of 63 05.0c, 034 Mike W 06.0c, 074 mk13 06.1c, 126 Mr Data 05.9c, 084 Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158 mufc 04.2c, 027 ned 06.1c, 157 neforum2 05.4c, 045 Nick F 06.0c, 139 noggin 04.9c, 117 Norrance 05.2c, 142 Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047 Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060 osmposm 05.2c, 164 Paul 06.1c, 172 Paul B 06.2c, 042 Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135 paul tall 01.1c, 061 PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013 phil n.warks 05.7c, 175 Plate 05.1c, 026 Polar Continental 03.5c, 167 Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late) Potent Gust 04.8c, 025 pottyprof 05.8c, 083 Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178 Redshift 06.1c, 153 reef 06.6c, 154 richarddx7 04.1c, 031 Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071 Rollo 05.9c, 079 shuggee 05.8c, 127 skwales100 04.5c, 014 slipknotsam 06.0c, 120 Snooz 04.8c, 075 snowmaiden 05.1c, 065 Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108 snowsure 04.8c, 106 Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076 Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082 Stargazer 06.2c, 115 Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124 Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110 Steve Murr 06.3c, 137 SteveB 05.2c, 055 Stormforce10 02.1c, 009 Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152 Stu London 05.5c, 150 suffolkboy 05.1c, 068 summer blizzard 05.2c, 131 Summer of 95 04.9c, 125 sundog 05.2c, 064 swfc 06.5c, 067 Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171 tesaro 06.3c, 104 The Enforcer 03.8c, 007 The Pit 05.9c, 097 Timbo 03.8c, 069 TimmyH 07.0c, 174 TomSE20 05.9c, 116 ukmoose 07.0c, 143 WBSH 06.0c, 144 windswept 06.3c, 059 xerxes 05.2c, 072 Rgds, John
  16. I've listed the entrants so far in the format required but I wasn't sure how to find out the members number (anyone any ideas?) Where has WIB gone? perhaps he couldn't bear post a mild CET guess The average NW guess is 5.6c and the median of the data is 5.8c. acbrixton 06.5c, Anti-Mild 06.0c, AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, Barry 03.1c, beng 04.0c, Blast From The Past 06.2c, BristolBlizzard 07.3c, Cal 05.8c, cheeky monkey 06.2c, chionomaniac 04.7c, Craig Evans 08.8c, Cymru 05.8c, damianslaw 05.2c, David Snow 06.1c, derby4life 05.3c, Devon-Nelly 05.2c, don 06.0c, DR Hosking 06.2c, Duncan McAlister 06.5c, eddie 06.4c, fishdude 04.0c, Gavin P 05.1c, Glacier Point 06.0c, Great Plum 06.0c, happy days 07.1c, HighPressure 06.3c, HomerJ 05.2c, IRON-BRU 06.7c, JACKONE 06.1c, James M 05.5c, Johnacc 06.1c, Joneseye 05.9c, Jonnie G 05.7c, Kentish Man 06.6c, kold weather 06.1c, La Nina 04.4c, LadyPakal 05.2c, 161 mam500 03.7c, Mammatus 06.4c, mark bayley 05.8c, mark forster 06.3c, MarkH 06.2c, Matty M 06.4c, Megamoonflake 5.8c, memories of 63 05.0c, Mike W 06.0c, mk13 06.1c, Mr Data 05.9c, Mr Maunder 05.7c, mufc 04.2c, ned 06.1c, neforum2 05.4c, Nick F 06.0c, noggin 04.9c, Norrance 05.2c, Optimus Prime 04.8c, Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, osmposm 05.2c, 164 Paul 06.1c, Paul B 06.2c, Paul Sherman 06.4c, paul tall 01.1c, PersianPaladin 06.5c, phil n.warks 05.7c, Plate 05.1c, Polar Continental 03.5c, Potent Gust 04.8c, pottyprof 05.8c, Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, Redshift 06.1c, 153 reef 06.6c, richarddx7 04.1c, Rojer J Smith 05.5c, Rollo 05.9c, shuggee 05.8c, skwales100 04.5c, slipknotsam 06.0c, Snooz 04.8c, snowmaiden 05.1c, Snow-Man2006 05.0c, snowsure 04.8c, Snowyowl9 04.9c, Somerset Squall 06.1c, Stargazer 06.2c, Steady Easterly 05.7c, Stephen Prudence 07.0c, Steve Murr 06.3c, SteveB 05.2c, Stormforce10 02.1c, Stratos Ferric 06.5c, Stu London 05.5c, suffolkboy 05.1c, summer blizzard 05.2c, Summer of 95 04.9c, sundog 05.2c, swfc 06.5c, Terminal Moraine 05.3c, tesaro 06.3c, The Enforcer 03.8c, The Pit 05.9c, Timbo 03.8c, TimmyH 07.0c, TomSE20 05.9c, ukmoose 07.0c, WBSH 06.0c, windswept 06.3c, xerxes 05.2c, Rgds, John
  17. I'm going to revise my estimate northwards I'm afraid. I'd like to increase it to 6.1 please Rgds, John
  18. Yeah I agree 1 & 2 sound good but not keen on 3. My December punt is 5.6 Rgds, John
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