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Everything posted by Chris Smith
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I think it's pointless looking backwards because CC has, and is accelerating at such a rate now, history is meaningless - even history as recent as the 60s, 70s and 80s. Watching the MOD threads over the winter, and one thing keeps popping up over and over - "Iberian heights". Persistent high pressure to our south has more or less removed any chance of deep cold reaching the UK, either from the North or the East. If you want to experience winter weather in the UK, as your Christmas cards want to paint it, you need to visit Northern Scandinavia, or Northern Canada. TL;DR @northwestsnow is right.
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Bit of a dilemma really - frontal snow from the south results in an Easterly wind off the sea here. With SSTs still well higher than normal, that's never going to end well for anyone along the coastal strip (probably up to 20km inland). You could see that reflected on the warning area, which very specifically didn't include the coastal strip. I'm surprised it's snowed as much as it has - it never seemed that cold to me. Looking at the Co Durham road cams, you have to go west and up as far as Tow Law (300m) to see anything settling. Lanehead has snow on the road at 400m.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Chris Smith replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
LRD Reminds me of charts from February 1975. Frosty nights and super-mild, sunny days - often 14-15c in the South East. I'd take that. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Point taken. I won't be attempting to contribute there again - I can see it's not wanted. It's a shame the signal to noise ratio is what it is in there because there's clearly some knowledgable people there desperately trying to talk about meteorology, but it's all lost in The Chase. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
To be fair, the sun can barely be arsed to drag itself over the horizon this time of year. I can't see much registering on a sun-gauge anywhere North of Lyon. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thank you! What better way to start a day - walk up the road, look up and think "Oh my, look at all that!" So much irridescense. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think it's an extreme weather chasing group. There's often similar rhetoric about storms and heat in summer. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ah. I just had my first post removal on that thread. I'm so proud. My crime was mentioning models in the model thread, I guess. I was very slightly critical perhaps, of one of the big names there, but I thought my post was relevant, and included citations to today's fantastic weather in the Stratosphere that many of us have been enjoying and posting pictures of. My contribution is below. The model thread appears to be a bunch of self-harmers mindlessly chasing a weather pattern that hardly ever happens in this country. Even back in the 70s and 80s, it was nearly always mild, grey and wet. There were always Iberian heights. Welcome to the UK! #rantover -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I definitely prefer this weather to that currently being endured in Cairns, Queensland. Have we ever had 500mm of rain in 24 hours with a promise of 500mm more? -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Chris Smith replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just back from the shop, wearing me shorts. In County Durham. In December. Actually, I was a bit warm. Seasonal weather is great and all, but it can also be a monumental ball-ache. After breaking my shoulder quite badly in January (not booze or ice related - just clumsy) I've got a bit risk-averse (can't think why!) and didn't set foot outside once during the snowy days at the beginning of the month. Like everything, there's pros and cons. I'm getting old - and if age tells you something - it's to accept what gets thrown at you, because there's (usually) bog all you can do to change things. -
I haven't lived up here for that long, four years in Durham and before that, three years in Guisborough. Prior to that, I lived in Norfolk. In those three places, the same has held true; when they say there's going to be a "Northerly", it's invariably a "Northwesterly", and the convection stays out there in the North Sea, leering at us, and the weather is mostly dry and frosty. But in that time, I've not seen a decent slider low - running NW to SE down the spine of the country. The last one I can remember (doesn't mean there haven't been others since) was 1981 when I lived in South London. When I left home to drive to work one morning, it was raining - but by the time I got to work in Carshalton, it was snowing and the temperature was already below zero. By the end of the day, the snow was a good 10cm. The climate is no longer like it was in the 1980s. SSTs are really high this year. I just don't know what's going to happen. Very likely, it will be like most years, a mixture of everything, but it seems to me there's much more scope for high dew-point cold rain/sleet events these days than there used to be, and that's a sad thing. ETA: As an afterthought - have to say, I can't remember ever seeing the Azores high getting close to 1050. That's just nuts!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Chris Smith replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A lot of those charts showing some leeward troughing east of the Pennines. Gonna be gusty up here in the North, maybe? Looks classic Fohn pattern for Scotland too.