-
Posts
3,672 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Optimus Prime
-
Is our climate becoming more predictable?
Optimus Prime replied to Weather Enthusiast91's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Snowyowl9 record cold. Christ it's been 6 years since a day could be described as one of them. -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
....or a once typical April. -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Optimus Prime replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
johncam Great Daily Mail headliner that one. -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
damianslaw You bring this argument about the past up time and time again, I'll explain why it's not a valid one and why that statement is so poorly thought out. First of all, I don't think anyone has ever once suggested the early days of the industrial revolution didn't contain periods of warm months or a consecutive run of warm months such as February's. Since the last ice age this was typical British climate stuff. Cold months and warm months were fairly well balanced, even during the little ice age where the balance was thrown to more colder months but the period 1730 - 1739 was exceptionally warm. This shows natural variation within the local climate. In a world that was 1.0 - 2.5 Celsius colder it would have still been plenty possible to record notable warm periods, even compared to the post 1940's average where there is clear undeniable warming. Without the warm blips those averages would be too low and would pour even more hot water on to the current christmas pudding. The 19th Century recorded a February average of 4.0 C which is equal to the 20th century (also 4.0) but this was more than compensated for by the very chilly Autumn's and December's. Only April and June shows little difference between the 19th and 20th century's. This wasn't really the case for the other months of the 20th century and certainly not this one. What we have now is the 30 year period for every single month is well in excess of anything in the dataset going back to 1659 and this has been the case since the late 1980's (but warming was taking place much earlier with plenty of evidence going back to the 1930's). The current warmth is unprecedented in the Earth's recent history and the gradient of warming is absolutely remarkable if not gobsmacking. For the current warming to be happening by chance we are talking 6 sigma which is something like 0.00009 % . -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Weather-history Weather-history Weather-history February is looking like the December 2015 equivalent. This comes of the back of a remarkable run of warm February's 2023 6.5 2022 6.9 2021 5.3 2020 No, I would say a CET of 8.8 C would do it. That would give us an anomaly of 5 C above normal, like 2015. It would also clear the previous record by 0.8 C. Admittedly December 2015 measures a full 1.5 C above the previous record so this month, if 8.8 C is the end result, would need a full statistical analysis to determine its significance amongst the data set for Feb. -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
February is looking like the December 2015 equivalent. This comes of the back of a remarkable run of warm February's 2023 6.5 2022 6.9 2021 5.3 2020 6.5 2019 6.9 February is turning into a warm March bearing in mind the 61-90 average is 5.7 C. -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Optimus Prime replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
KTtom An increased risk of something occuring is different from stating something WILL happen... It's been a bust winter for most forecasters this year. -
Late January-early February 1954 freeze
Optimus Prime replied to Weather-history's topic in Historic Weather
-
That's surprising considering February is an absolutely atrocious winter month really since 1996.
-
In terms of the UK the mean average was 9.97 C, thus the 2nd warmest after 2022 (10.03 C) Separately: Scotland: 3rd warmest at 8.28 C (2022 8.49 & 2014 8.43 C) Northern Ireland: 2023 easily the warmest at 10.17 C and the first 10 + year (2022 2nd at 9.83 C) Wales: easily warmest at 10.41 (2022 2nd at 10.22 C) Comparatively, Scotland is now experiencing years that are significantly warmer than England's coldest year of modern times; 1963 at 7.95 C. England's 7.95 C in 1963 matches Scotland's most recent really cold year in 2010 which was also 7.95 C. Different planet to today's...
-
Depends on what you're measuring. Decadal, 2010 - 2019 wasn't as warm as 2000 - 2009 which would indicate a period of cooling. But each 30-year period has shown a pronounced warming trend since the 71-000 baseline compared to its predecessor. I don't think many were expecting a full 24 month period to average this high so soon. I guess we'll see how the climate responds to the inevitable La Nina and how much cooling is experienced.
-
2023 has been confirmed as the equal warmest year (equal to last year that is !!!) on record. At 11.1 C. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt 0.9 C above 1991 - 2020 1.2 C above 1981 - 2010 1.4 C above 1971 - 2000 1.6 C above 1961 - 1990 ~1.9 C above pre-industrial average.
-
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Optimus Prime replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Probably part in due to the rising greenhouse gases at the time. The temperature responds to CO2 logarithmically so the early 20th century emissions probably had a more profound impact on the planets temperature than even today. The lack of tropospheric aerosols until after world war 2 was probably also a considerable factor.
-
Storm Pia (DMI) Thursday 21st
Optimus Prime replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Same comments made about the met office long range forecasts that ultimately may not comment on what people want to see, but are rarely wrong, vastly more accurate than the sensationalist forecasts posted in there before yet another failed cold snap.- 95 replies
-
- 1
-
Storm Pia (DMI) Thursday 21st
Optimus Prime replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
"Strong winds across a large swathe of the country Thursday, causing some travel disruption. - Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected - Some bus and train services affected, with some journeys taking longer - Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges - Some short term loss of power and other services - Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities will be affected by spray and/or large waves" Seems pretty accurate to me.- 95 replies
-
- 1
-
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Optimus Prime replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Incredible consistency and accuracy demonstrated -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Optimus Prime replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's because the colder solutions are at heightened risk but the traditional December weather is the most likely outcome. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Optimus Prime replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah, I had a look through on climatereanlzser going back to 1979 and it was a struggle to find cold this intense so early on in the season. It was also not possible to find warmth anywhere near the sort highlighted in red on the map there. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Optimus Prime replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shame the option for an easterly has disappeared. If it's cold you're after, there's plenty on offer to the east days 7-10. -
Months that deserved records but didn't achieve them
Optimus Prime replied to CryoraptorA303's topic in Historic Weather
Yeah March 2012 was astonishing (even more so for North America). That months deserves the record. August 2022 seems like a reasonable candidate. -
October 1963 - remarkably warm & dry, North America
Optimus Prime posted a topic in Historic Weather
October 1963 was and still is an historically warm month for North America with only the extreme west coast and the extreme western portion of Alaska avoiding it. This heavily contributed to the warm run of October's of the 1960's. There were also a couple of notable hurricanes that didn't quite reach the shores of the USA (but hurricane Flora did impact Cuba) . Meteorological case study - https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/mwre/92/1/1520-0493_1964_092_0037_twacoo_2_3_co_2.pdf Chicago recorded an air temperature 9 degrees Celsius above normal coined by the media at the time as "The warm October that refused to quit". The air temperature anomaly map showing temperatures widely 3 - 7 degrees Celsius higher than normal. October 1963 currently ranks 2nd warmest, after 2021. The overall anomaly being ~1.9 C above normal The October's of 1962, 1965 and 1968 were also on the mild side. 1969 was a notable cold one across the bulk of the United States, but remarkably warm across the whole of Alaska.