Aleman

jonboySorry for the delay. (I did say I would be spending less time here now.) Does this cover what you'd like to see?

Yes, I suppose is the simple answer - but it's still a model with indirect measurement and processing limits and assumptions that need to be understood if one is to understand what it is measuring and why that might not represent what we want to measure as much as we would like.

Hudson now finished freezing over according to snow depths. Three weeks late though, I'd figured on approaching two. It's strange how slowly the final 1/4 has frozen when surface temps hit the cusp temperature of -1C to -2C just over 3 weeks ago. I'd have expected closer to a few days than a few weeks to finish. Yet here we are. Anyway, it's the NW Passage areas that interest me most so my input from now on will be less frequent. It's been an oddly slow freeze up after early snows and deep cold spells hinted at better, but equally with highly unusual warm spells later, where advance ceased for days and eventually dominated the trend. It's been an interesting rollercoaster this year. I wonder if melt season will be as interesting. Interesting snow pattern in the USA, btw, all along the Gulf of Mexico coast and look at Florida where they called snowplows out. Some records went. (10 inches in New Orleans)

The last bit of Hudson usually freezes out quickly yet it's taken ages this time. Warm weather and wind seems to account for some of it and yet it still seems odd, having watched the charts for about 15 years. Now it's -15C to -35C in that area, it looks like it's now finished almost 3 weeks late (How could the last bit not freeze rapidly at that?), though model smoothing might still take a couple of days to turn that last bit red. The N. Hemisphere weather has been weird for about 6 months, with particular reference to large weather systems driving warm and cold air greater distances than normal. We see this in anomalies best, which have looked extreme at times. Whilst Hudson has been warm, my sister in central Texas has been complaining about a few severe cold spells, with two reaching -5 to -10C and the current one producing snow over the actual warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. Snow extent overall, though, has been tracking close to average, though looks like it might be peaking slightly lower with Eurasia not producing this year, barring a late surge?

For a few days, sea swell has been suggesting Hudson has just about reached frozen/very heavy slush. I assume we are just waiting for wind to drop and/or smoothing in sea ice algorithms to sea charts complete. It's nearly two weeks late, now. This is a week ago Iceland still not given up on that ice bridge yet?

Peak Northern Hemisphere snow extent this weekend or is there more to come?

A few in Northern England already below -8C. Grisedale now -11.2C.

Grisedale has -9.7C this morning but it's over 1000 feet and we had -9.4C at Topcliffe and -10.2C at Spadeadam so not quite there, anyway. That's on 15 minute samples, though, so the recorded absolute low could be a whisker below that.

Geordiesnow A temperature drop of 15c and lighter wind through next week, after 4-8 inches of snow through this weekend, is a good recipe for flash freeze through SE Hudson Bay that might finish its freeze up. The choppy surface water temps (in 30mph+ winds) are still around -1C to -2C so any calm and it should freeze quickly. BIg lows continue to drive some odd weather, though. Look at the anomaly contrast across Canada. -20C to +25C.

(SE) Hudson temperatures are expected to drop 15C from Sunday after snows every day this week. Freeze up should advance nicely next week and looks on track to finish about two weeks late. Hudson actually retreated slightly in recent days. What's happening with SW Greenland, though? That's where the towns are because it does not usually freeze up. I don't remember seeing it like this before.

Colder than average weather has helped NE Canada sea ice levels catch up a bit such that they only look a week behind now. However, there is now some more of that almost bizarre weather we've been getting since the late summer. Much of Hudson is now 25C above normal while Greenland and it's eastern side continue with their generally somewhat colder than average weather, down to 15C below normal. One of the upshots of this is cold offshore breezes have set off another spell of heavy snow between Greenland and Iceland that is again looking to be trying to form an ice bridge. (The same warm and cold air masses lead to this weeks front that is expected to bring potentially large amounts of snow to northern Scotland next week, with possibly lesser amounts to the Borders and northern England if it tracks far enough south.)

Hudson and Baffin look to still be catching up. After being up to 3 weeks behind, they are now more like half that. They might make up a bit more since it's colder than average at the moment and windy, too, actually pushing the ice front in the right direction. It will be sucking heat out of the surface water for it to freeze over when it calms this weekend before turning less cold again - but still -10C as maxima. I'd hazard the guess that it will finish freezing over nearer a week late than two. (One to two weeks into January.) Also, Greenland is down to -55C again so those sea-freezing offshore winds will be that bit colder and penetrate that bit further offshore. If it keeps up, ice around Greenland might even end up a little above average after being way below in the summer. Meanwhile cold seen in NE Canada is reflected in wind and warmth at Bering that has seen no ice progress recently.