edinburgh_1992
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
edinburgh_1992 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ice Day Stunning charts from GFS06 for central belt of scotland... although as always i'm sure we'll end up missing out, or Edinburgh will have sleety rain. Was hoping for a bit more of an easterly, maybe if the low shifts south we might end up pulling in colder air from the east with north sea snow showers for us in scotland. -
Saturday looking like an interesting day up here in Scotland. GFS still showing sub-zero 850temps across most of the country, coupled with persistent rain and temperatures of 6-7C even at low altitude by the end of the day. ECMWF on the other hand suggesting very heavy rain with possible flooding, but milder temperatures. Quite phenomenal how different the temperature forecasts are between the different models, and it is only 2 days away. 10 degrees difference between ECMWF and GFS.
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February 2020 was quite decent in Edinburgh too, would take a repeat of that anyday. Had some proper blizzard conditions over here, despite the winds coming in from the west rather than the east. Anyway, it seems like storms could be making a return soon, just hope the high pressure sinks south and expands towards Greece/turkey to flatten things out a bit.
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Agree with everyone, weather has been extremely boring recently. The high pressure is too far south and we are just on the edge, as mild westerly winds bring endless gloom. Ironically down south it seems to be colder (and sunnier), which I would definitely prefer to what we are getting now. No end in sight either, and I'm not looking at GFS anymore and it's phantom northerlies and height rises. Never thought I'd say this, but wouldn't mind an Atlantic storm to spice things up a little.
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Indeed, Ecmwf is pretty awful for scotland with lots of cloud around next week. GFS was great last week, lots of sunny, frosty days predicted. Now it has aligned with ECMWF, as I expected would happen. To get sunny, frosty weather, we would need the HP to move further north, instead it is sitting over southern U.K.
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Definitely worth keeping an eye on, although I’m not keeping my hopes up given that ECMWF is showing a completely different evolution. First we need the high pressure to push further north (as predicted by GFS). That gives us both better chances for cold and snow or sunny and dry weather. If the high pressure stays to the south, then we can forget about seeing any sun for days. Unseasonably mild, wet and windy being the key words.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
edinburgh_1992 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is this a Bartlett finally? Seems to be in the right position and not shifting much from there either. I wouldn’t even mind cold zonality, at least it is usually quite long lasting and can deliver snow, especially here in Scotland. Early February 2020 was great. But with high pressure pushing north from Spain, anything other than very mild, wet and windy, is extremely unlikely. And for those that say these are normal Synoptics for our country, they are not. The temperatures are predicted to be about 5 degrees above average. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
edinburgh_1992 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I suspect we may end up with a Bartlett in the long term. Models have been hinting at it all day, with a few exceptions. -
Looking ahead, the long-term outlook is quite bleak. Models are now consistently showing high pressure pushing in from Spain, apart from the odd member here and there. So the potential cold and snow over Christmas could be very short-lived. For the Christmas period, there is still a chance for many of us to see snow here in Scotland. As often happens, it is looking quite marginal at the moment: I’m still hopeful that we might see a slight south shift in the next model updates. It really wouldn’t take a lot to get all us all back in the game here in Scotland (eastern coastal areas included).
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
edinburgh_1992 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The long term trends on the models today are quite concerning - looks like a strong area of high pressure could build over Spain, turning things very mild (and wet in the north) for us. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
edinburgh_1992 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS18 is ideal for most parts of the U.K. Perfect timing for a cold snap too, around the shortest day of the year. Snow could lie for days without melting given the low temperatures and short daylight hours. -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
edinburgh_1992 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS12 is still reasonably decent for Scotland, some snow is possible around Christmas even on lower ground. The latest run is showing some snow in Edinburgh on the 24th, followed by a cold and crisp day on the 25th. -
Even snow on the Alps could be possible below 1000m near the Swiss/Austrian border over the weekend. But across northern italy, night time temperatures should dip well into single figures under clear skies.