Jamie M

Today does seem to hold some merit at least for the far SE for the potential of some thundery activity into the evening. Shear profiles from AROME do seem to suggest the possibility of organised convection developing in the far SE with a low chance of any storm developing supercellular characteristics with it. It seems more likely that this will happen in northern France due to the 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE being available vs the 600/700 available in the SE. The abundance of potential convection developing in the SE does make me feel it's pretty unlikely unless one of the storms scoops up everything left in its environment. AROME did seem to play with the idea of a supercell developing in northern France on its 12z run yesterday with a storm that deviated to the right of its mean wind. Theta-E values are also highest in the far SE which seems to indicate to me at least that there is where most of the thundery activity will be even if convection does develop further west. All that being said however I still wouldn't put the chances of any thunderstorms developing at anything other than a slight chance considering conditions look MUCH better across the pond in France.

Showers galore later based on AROME

Sprites Sadly not this was just one of the Weather Watcher images I found searching through - bloody wish I was though

My report for Church Stowe WWW.BBC.CO.UK Church Stowe, Northamptonshire Largest hail I've seen for March

Dxnielwashere The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland You can fill in a report here

7th - 14th August had 120.7 hours at Shoeburyness, an average of 13.4 hours per day. One of the best periods of weather that I can remember recently as well as being very warm, avg max here in Herne Bay was 24.6C. A selection of some of the pictures I took during that period are here.

@Eagle Eye That very strong Pacific jet is certainly a show for how strong the +MT event currently is Let's just hope MJO passes through the maritime barrier and doesn't 'konk' out

I was wondering where the ice warning was!

96 & 120 FAX

We can only hope aye

Wouldn't really say 1881 lol, very doubtful there'd be 24 inches of snow on the Sussex coast and 34 inches of snow on the Isle of Wight lol? It sure does look like a proper snow dump for someone but wouldn't say 1881

0.9C here in Herne Bay about 5 minutes walk from the coast now after this shower Untitled (20).mp4

Untitled (18).mp4 Untitled (19).mp4 Snow videos from Birchington

Was still snowing when I left Birchington and has started up again in Herne Bay, very nice

Sleety snow here IMG_7963.mov

Too strong and it could become the more 'dominant' high as it sucks away heights from Greenland This GIF from ECM shows it well

May be the same person that's faked a tornado in their back garden a few times if it's a certain Crook

Nacreous clouds yesterday

Sleet & ice pellets all night here in Herne Bay. Added thundersleet too which I've attached a video of Untitled (17).mp4

Graupel at 16:20 earlier Untitled (15).mp4

Aurora tonight at 1826

That looks to be 12z? ECM means normally start rolling out in half an hour or so

I expect December 2015 will now quickly return

I certainly need to scratch up my crumbs of knowledge on the GSDM so quite happy on the prospect of this becoming more active

ECM Mean from 18th November 2010