MisfitDog3

Interesting to compare GFS with ECM runs for the next 10 days or so. ECM likes the ongoing westerly approach and blows up a large mid-Atlantic High for the middle part of next week. It doesn't really know quite what to do with it after that and I am suspicious about the lack of any notable low pressures being generated over the run. GFS is a lot more active on the cyclogenesis front and projects the High closer to the UK. Given the rapid development of the High on both models (though very different placement) and dubious rapid retreat of the High given the projected size of it, I am not convinced we are seeing a convincing picture just yet. I have a nasty feeling we might just get kicked back into endless lows belting in off a lively Atlantic, which is rather a depressing prospect to be honest......every dog walk is a mud-fest already.....

The Low forecast to pass north of Scotland, well up near the Faeroes, mid week looks to be a real beast. The Met Office have this at 949mb and then 944mb as it passes over the Norwegian Coast. The squeeze on the southern flank is something to behold. One to watch.

I am based on the Surrey/Hants border. From 10.00pm through to 1.00am or so, conditions would have clearly warranted an amber warning. We were actually in a yellow warning zone (just) but my weather station recorded 10 gusts in excess of 70mph whilst I was monitoring it and there was a lot of peripheral damage in the area I could see from walking around with the dogs this morning. It is a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't for the Met Office but the storm last night was a major event for many areas, in the south as well and the north.

This is definitely my club! I increasingly dislike anything much above 25C, and add in humidity and I just go to ground until it passes. 10 degrees with light drizzle would be my ideal all year round.

I have had no problems with the spring at all. It just reminded me of what many of the springs I remember from the 70's and 80's were like. Cool and damp. It is obvious the most of the plantlife enjoyed it as well. Very verdant growth and almost psychedelic greens up in the woods and fields around us. Nature not put under strain for once and a low fire risk.......until the last week or so, when the continual dry weather and strong easterly wind means we have a return to heath and forest fires! Not good for the wildlife or plantlife. I am not a fan of heat and find very hot weather about as obstructive to getting on with daily life as 3ft snow drifts. If every spring could be like the one we have just encountered I would be delighted!

Some of the temp forecast differences that are being thrown up by the crazy swings in the model runs are something else currently. This morning the netweather max (feels like) in Farnham for Sunday 3rd April was 20 degrees C....now it's 8 degrees! That is some variation. More to come I think...

The track of the Low is interesting. If it were to go just south of the UK into France I was pondering if it would actually draw cold air down on the north/north east side of it?

Most astonishing thunderstorm event I witnessed has a scientific paper written about it! The West Surrey Thunderstorm. Absolutely monumental on rainfall alone. Caused severe flooding. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.174

GFS seems keen on pushing cold deep south into the States over the next week. Is that likely to have an effect on Atlantic activity? I know the two aren't intrinsically linked but presumably it can wag the jet stream tail, as it were?

I will be interesting to see what the MO do with the projected northerly shift of the Biscay moisture. They seemed pretty certain last night it would never reach beyond the south coast. No doubt this is just one of several occurrences this week which will go to the wire.

The mouldering carrot of cold continues to ever hover near the distant horizon as the never learning donkey of dull mediocrity plods on through the westerly gale....

A year ago today we were feeling the full impact of one of the worst storms of last Winter. There was no chance of anything stopping that conveyor of misery. What we have is a very different and currently unpredictable outlook. Might go cold. As others have said, it's all changing day on day. Nothing to be miserable about. ...especially given where we were this time last year...

Evening All. Long time no post. Always watching though.Seasons greetings to you all...I'm Orthodox so Christmas is not until the 7th Jan so a bit of wait still..but it may be white! I live in hope. Anyway, that Low on the 27th. East Coast storm surge screams out of some of those model runs...

Where have all the other posters gone? Not difficult to answer. This particular forum is not really objective model discussion and hasn't been for a long time. The problem is particularly bad during the Winter months when the hunt for Red October...sorry...cold ...occupies 80%+ of the posts and god help anyone else who tries to moderate or look anywhere but that. Others have moved away from posting on a regular basis and now many of the short term cold fanatics have naffed off there is a void. I love net weather but this problem has been getting worse for a while....

Am I allowed to say there are loads of people looking through the various models at the moment who really gave up giving a monkey's about any sort of cold weather...unless it's dry! The usual entertainment value of find the cold spell left on a bus of desperation a couple of weeks ago....now I'm just looking for a period of weather when I'm and hundreds of others are not having to dry out walls and floors twice a week. It is getting scary now. I just want to bring a reality check to some.

Interestingly though...if you look at the French weather radar...quite a lot of the rain is dissapating before it gets to the South East. Not all of it....but a reasonable amount. Lets see what the next few hours brings...

The front(s) seem to be moving through at a right old pace. Might well be drier in SW Surrey in a couple of hours! That's not bad....though obviously not great!

FI is FI. doesn't matter if you favour mild or cold, the same very small chances of stuff at +192 hours or whatever verifying carry on. What has been the theme of this Winter? Outside rain, it's been the unprecedented repeat violent swings across a number of the models. Nothing is reliable outside the 5 day window....yes the Atlantic looks very powerful but it takes a brave man or woman to hang your hat on anything in mid Feb....

This Winter has been screaming cold late Feb and March for a week or so. The Atlantic rules currently but the threats of the Russian High and strat warming will do something. ..just not yet.

Aware this has been mentioned earlier but the rainfall forecast for today has been one of the worst close quarter misjudgements I can remember from the Met Office for a long time. They were still forecasting substantial rainfall in the South East during the day still at 8.00am! Hey ho. I'm afraid I cannot get remotely excited about 'cold' in the forecast because of the continual recent unreliability of the models. The storm track on Sunday is still variable so anything else in a weeks time (or even 5 days plus) is still at the mercy of one of the over regular 'flips' we've seen in recent weeks. Show me those charts in a 72 hours window and I'll be interested.....

What is the core mb forecast for Sunday's storm? The track looks to be the worst possible for many across the heart and south of England! Is it likely to move through swiftly do people think?

Thank the lord the Countryfile extended forecast has put an end to all this uncertainty... ha! Funniest 2 mins of forecasting I've seen in years. Very honest though..basically all detail confidence falls apart 72 hours plus.Speaks volumes really...

Let's hope the UKMO comes good. Quite frankly the storms showing up in FI are making me go pale. No more....please! Chimney stacks saturated, more leaks than a Welsh allotment and the garden is a swamp. Cold and dry.....

These rapid 'flicks' between fairly different output on some pretty major models always leaves me with a vision of a lookout on a ship unable to see the ice berg until the last minute. We could see an evolution into something dramatic at very close quarters. I don't feel good or bad after any run at the moment as if what we're seeing doesn't fit your tastes then wait 12 hours and something new turns up.....ha.....

I haven't posted much this Winter though been a member for a while. I must admit sudden changes in model output makes me reach for the 'caution pills'. From having a look at what the main models seem to be edging towards I can't help thinking we will be seeing the Atlantic influencing any cold spell slightly more than anything from the east. Fronts seem to be making more progress across the country in the current couple of days than forecast a few days ago. I suspect the 'train' will be hard to stop....