Marting
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gowon I would say heading in a fairly consistent way towards a block to the north, this suggested strongly on the meteogram this morning . Turning colder again, although like all models a rapidly changing position (SSW related) so we watch with interest -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dennis This ties in nicely with METO extended outlook just published out to day 15, snow showers from east. Meets ECM and GFS roughly in terms of way forward -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM ensembles showing a fairly cold picture out to day 15. Winds turning easterly and the maybe north eastern later -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I was actually thinking the 18z is looking flatter at 66hrs, temps no real difference -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ali1977 Let’s hope so. Pretty sure ECM at the top end of its run when we view in an hour -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something holding up that stalling low pressure at 144 on ECM. from hero to trouble between 96 to 144. Will it move on at 168? Edit, not a lot! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM ensembles for Liverpool, painting a cool picture. Operational run often at bottom end, not quite on its own -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Marting replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Just goes to show that things can flip quickly in the models and so I suspect tomorrow they will look vastly different again. You only have to look at the ECM 46 dayers and how yesterday was predicting 6c below norm on Monday 22nd, not looking quite as likely. However, who knows what is around the corner, well the professionals maybe, so eyes down for next chase starting tomorrow
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ECM ensembles showing the operational as almost a warm outlier for my location at the end, cooler earlier on
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ECM ensembles showing colder still as 10 day chart has not scale over 6c on it! The 15 day charts showing a strong northerly influence on day 15
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ECM ensembles show that ECM on warm side near my location The 15 day charts showing the lift lift and fall, strong cold runs and northerly
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Marting replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Marting replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM ensembles this morning show the op was on the cooler side of the runs, but not on own.Steady as we go. Plus on the meteogram at the bottom we have tight clustering showing good consistency for the range of temps -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Marting replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS Control a good match this morning to the ECM and GEM runs. The ECM operational would be rather nice for a cold fan! Let’s see if the ECM ensembles keep up the strong consistent run in 10 mins. Plenty of hazards in this at so far out, but becoming interesting to analyse the fine details once within 168 hours -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Marting replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty chilly ECM ensembles tonight. Staying quite below average day 10 to 15 . after day 8 operational at top end