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Marting

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Everything posted by Marting

  1. Gowon I would say heading in a fairly consistent way towards a block to the north, this suggested strongly on the meteogram this morning . Turning colder again, although like all models a rapidly changing position (SSW related) so we watch with interest
  2. Dennis This ties in nicely with METO extended outlook just published out to day 15, snow showers from east. Meets ECM and GFS roughly in terms of way forward
  3. ECM ensembles showing a fairly cold picture out to day 15. Winds turning easterly and the maybe north eastern later
  4. I was actually thinking the 18z is looking flatter at 66hrs, temps no real difference
  5. ECM as expected at the top end of its ensembles. 15 dayer stays below verbal the way out
  6. Ali1977 Let’s hope so. Pretty sure ECM at the top end of its run when we view in an hour
  7. Something holding up that stalling low pressure at 144 on ECM. from hero to trouble between 96 to 144. Will it move on at 168? Edit, not a lot!
  8. ECM ensembles for Liverpool, painting a cool picture. Operational run often at bottom end, not quite on its own
  9. The ECM ensembles are becoming rather chilly and fairly concentrated on the meteogram
  10. ECM giving quite high confidence out at day 10 on the meteograms
  11. Quite a big shift in the ECM average at day 10 tonight, vortex shifting to scandi akin to gefs
  12. Yes, agree the signs building for the scandi ish high pressure in 2 weeks time. A trend to watch in the Gefs
  13. Quite a lot of blocking in the Gefs post 300 (FI) hours, worth a look and one to keep an eye on over next few days to see if the firmer pattern develops. Low, mid, uk based and scandi all showing tonight
  14. I completely agree with the hints of a temp drop as many of the gefs runs showing scandi high development out in FI. I will expect an op run to show this in next 36 hours.
  15. Just goes to show that things can flip quickly in the models and so I suspect tomorrow they will look vastly different again. You only have to look at the ECM 46 dayers and how yesterday was predicting 6c below norm on Monday 22nd, not looking quite as likely. However, who knows what is around the corner, well the professionals maybe, so eyes down for next chase starting tomorrow
  16. Just to note that this is yesterday s update, just with date changed for some reason. So expect another update this PM
  17. ECM ensembles showing the operational as almost a warm outlier for my location at the end, cooler earlier on
  18. ECM ensembles showing colder still as 10 day chart has not scale over 6c on it! The 15 day charts showing a strong northerly influence on day 15
  19. ECM ensembles show that ECM on warm side near my location The 15 day charts showing the lift lift and fall, strong cold runs and northerly
  20. Strong signs of a northerly still in place at day 14 / 15 on ECM, ensembles stay cold
  21. ECM ensembles this morning show the op was on the cooler side of the runs, but not on own.Steady as we go. Plus on the meteogram at the bottom we have tight clustering showing good consistency for the range of temps
  22. GFS Control a good match this morning to the ECM and GEM runs. The ECM operational would be rather nice for a cold fan! Let’s see if the ECM ensembles keep up the strong consistent run in 10 mins. Plenty of hazards in this at so far out, but becoming interesting to analyse the fine details once within 168 hours
  23. Pretty chilly ECM ensembles tonight. Staying quite below average day 10 to 15 . after day 8 operational at top end
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