Cuban Zebra
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cuban Zebra replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks good I agree but we’re not getting agreement on 4 days away so suggesting that for this is a bit of a stretch! Things like this nearly always correct South anyway. Nice to look at and dream of all that snowy goodness though!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cuban Zebra replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cuban Zebra replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We’re all adults here, I’ve had years of hoping and heartbreak. Can’t do it again so am merely planning on middle of the road chilly rain as the form horse! But could this be different, shall I take the first step! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Cuban Zebra replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks good but the sole line going mild after the 7th probably has the best chance of verifying!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Cuban Zebra replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After the disappointing events of last winter I’ve been leaving it a couple of weeks at a time before dipping back in here! We seem to be back at straw clutching and oh so close again. At least eastern Europe is getting its seasonal weather!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Cuban Zebra replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve stayed away so far after the misery of last winter, I had heard rumblings in the usual media so have dipped my toe in again. Wished I hadn’t bothered, especially when the latest run shows this at the end! Seriously though, what is driving this turgid pattern we seem to have been locked in forever?? -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Cuban Zebra replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking good for our neck of the woods!! What are the temps to go with it? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the well signalled transfer of the PV looks nailed on, unfortunately nothing falls into place for us and we end up with benign crud and latterly Atlantic driven mild. Then I’m the later frames the PV wants to return home and we end up under Atlantic mild! You couldn’t make this winter up!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s dominated our weather for some time now but what meteorological reason is for high pressure to set up and remain so close to us?? -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking out into the final knockings of FI on GFS we get this, with the flow already in the right direction the cold looks to be coming!!!! 5AE55CBE-0769-400E-8392-4FE2CE201DB9.webp -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know it’s only the GFS but if you look right into FI the cold air starts to build and it could be headed our way as the direction of flow is already set up! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It could be a trendsetter though, things are starting to stir! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So looks like next weeks cold snap extending and then after that it all goes a bit bonkers as the PV gets it dancing shoes on over to the favourable side, deep cold starts to build and the high pressure addiction starts to break! Things are starting to look up for coldies!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS 12z throws out more dirge! High pressure never far from our little isle and more often than not appearing in the wrong place at the wrong time! At least it’s not just us with much of Europe going early warm spring!! If this is what’s delivered then I think we should ban the mentioning of SSW anytime next winter!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s quite noteworthy in itself really, all routes lead to high pressure over us or very near! I fear for all talk of SSWs we’ll just get stuck under milder higher pressures!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!! Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS had us going for a while but it dumps us well and truly back in benign muck territory! You couldn’t wish to creat a worse run for February if cold is your flavour! I’m done now, bring on spring!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Cuban Zebra replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think this weekend is going to be interesting model watching, it seems primed for a good old GFS picks up something, drops it again then roars back in a t 48-72!!!!