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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Empire Of Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
raz.org.rain , maybe temporarily for 24-36h? I can't say this is a consistent theme though. The Canadian PV has a strong Easterly/Southeasterly flow enabling the Atlantic. I think we'll have a clearer picture by the end of Sunday. I don't rule out ofc a major event of very cold weather in southeastern Europe as they're due for one this winter and March has historically delivered there. If this happens, yes it means a more prolonged very mild and dry weather for us. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Empire Of Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As it stands, anyone's expecting a decent warmup with dry weather in early Spring it's likely to be dissapointed. The scenarios are either wet and breezy (normal temps but chilly under windy weather) or cold/very cold dry/showery. That said, any potential shift of the Azores high over us will likely bring very cold, snowy weather in Eastern Europe. -
I think areas of Sheffield and Harrogate (especially in higher ground) were in the prime/sweet spot yesterday. We reached around 15cm last night and we still have spots of snow after many hours of rain. It's not the first time Harrogate gets a decent amount of snow as it seems some systems continously feed the area with ppn either stalling or pivoting.
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It's absolutely bonkers to me that a lot of people Midlands south want the system to shift even more south. Unless I'm reading the charts completely wrong, any further south correction will result to a more extensive/intrusive warm sector for these areas. This means the snow window will narrow down time wise. Maybe Kasim or someone else can clarify this or correct me if I'm completely wrong.
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Harsh Climate , METO still suggests otherwise and I was expecting them to change the forecast already which strangely hasn't happen. As I said earlier, if the shift is more south I don't see how this setup can provide widespread snow at low levels in Midlands. Some members here believe the shift will drag colder uppers to reach southern areas but they disregard the fact that any stalling will result to warmer air pushing through quicker.
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wrightc23 , afaik Thursday's event wasn't even on the cards until later last week especially for Midlands south. Now Midlands have a chance. It's one thing discussing each run even at 300h (absolutely fine with me, this is why it's a models thread) but it's another taking for granted charts after 96h and having a meltdown because they don't verify. Professionals are struggling even at 24h forecasts in all countries, especially in Europe. USA and Japan for many reasons are completely different and the meteorologists there have more tools on their hands plus the setups and patterns are a bit more straightforward.
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winterof79 can't see this verifying. Some in the MOD thread are underestimating again the warm air/sector. As it stands any snow will be confined to 300m or even 350m+ with temporary sleet in lower levels. Still early though as everything can change but my experience suggests the cold air will be further north and might not even reach North Yorkshire.