Agreed, will it ever be possible to model these small scale features at more than a handful of days? There will always be an error in the initial state, whether it’s instrument error, lack of coverage in certain parts of the atmosphere, topology or the like and that’s before any physics assumptions are made. Due to the chaotic nature of meteorology, there is often not a ‘steady state solution’ & errors grow, irrespective of how fine the resolution or accurate the dynamical equations are. Rubbish in, rubbish out……..so I think NWP will always struggle beyond a few days.
On a slightly different tack - the (off-the-) scale of EAMT anomaly highlighted in Tamara’s post is really something - must surely have an impact in due course….?