MATTWOLVES 3

Pv is taking a kick in the groin here folks..yet again and it's stronger than last night. Mean has really tanked into negative territory tonight.

Gfs is like don't bother let's get spring in. But look ECM and it's a different story. Cyclonic episodes wrapped in cold air at times and if you fast forward to day 10,we have some serious cold over Greenland..follow the isobars and we are dragging that down..yes there will be moderation of the flow,but I tell you what I wouldn't be suprised to see the met being busy in the next week or so with snow cropping up for those who didn't expect it,and a fair bit of snow for areas further NW and with elevation. So perhaps we still have a few more dramas to play out before all is said and done..Will be keen to see if tonight's zonal winds keep with the trend for the strat to be hit again come early March.

Hey folks I'm sure many of you have given up the ghost by now,and that's understandable! I've never seen a winter where the NWP as been so poor regards to blocking...I've probably lost my cool at times with it and slandered the teleconnections experts which I would like to apologise for! Basically it's been a nightmare from all the data to nail this down,and it's certainly not the fault of the experts who bring those really insightful and cool background driver updates. It appears a few spanners have been thrown into the works this winter,firstly perhaps El nino was a little to strong and a as a result we ended up with vast warming of some of the oceans which helped to inflate those iberian Heights...perhaps even the tongs eruption had an affect on the cooling of the stratosphere! There's multiple variables we can blame here and its a difficult post mortem tbh. The Canadian warming I feel also seemed to alter the structure of the PV and it acted up ever since..warmings from the bottom up etc. Is it too late to save what's left of winter? Well tbh I'm old school and base everything on the equinox and say winter does not end till 21st March...so basically we have a very brief reversal die in the next couple of days before a quick uptick. Will it be long enough to reverse us to an Estly? Will it impact the trop? Many say know it won't and some have pointed out the wave acteas not strong enough. But let's be honest here the strat had been a forecasters nightmare this winter so don't be suprised to see more fun and games. Last nights zonal winds also hint at yet another hit of the strat by early March,but we need to tread cautiously as these zonal wind forecats have left alot to be desired this season. What I will say I'd I'm noticing alot of ensembles now pointing to Ural blocking,a gr8 wave 2 precursor which makes me belive the strat may tumble quite abruptly rather than a customary slow breakdown at this time of the year..this could put us in the game for a cold and blocked 3nd part of March! Is it to late though? Well there's a lot of cold bottled up over the Arctic so a sudden breakdown could put us in the game. Remember last March! Some had a foot of snow! And I would like to finish by saying I wish you all well and have greatest respect for many of you..I've currently been spending a lot of time on X just to grow my followers.. its the same old me though..serious forecasts injected with a lot of humour! And on a sad note its been over 2 months now since my dad passed away,his ashes are now with us and there's not a day goes by when I don't feel bloody awful about his demise. To see it was shocking and will haunt me forever. I only hope he's ina better place now. Go on gang have one last chase...its along time till next November! I wouldn't long drawn out severe cold...but I feel snow chances will crop up next month. Loves ya brothers and sisters.. stay well and enjoy life everyday as its a long time gone!

How's about a bit of the pink stuff folks..you know what I mean

Again I'm gobsmacked on here..far to many posts are becoming emotional based and that will cloud one's judgement! The ECM run appears to open doors further into the run and keep in mind this is beyond a week out and will be subject to much variation..this pattern could easily end up a couple hundred miles South! There's positives with the current mjo getting close to 8..the met update holds lots of promise,last nights 46 shows heaps of promise..yet we get a post of its all over! Basically frustration from not seeing the run you wanted to see...so you get emotional have a tantrum and make the wrong kind of calls! That's what happens when you get to attached to every op run.. This is before even the 50 ens have run and loads more data! Some need to think before hitting the submit button as it can make an adult appear like a child with ott responses to model output..take a deep breath look at other factors and data before committing oneself to losing your patience. Personally I'm pleased with the direction of travel..it seems to be those who are far South and SE based who are gonna lose there cool over the coming days more than anyone. Big 46 anomolies coming up...I'm confident.

The iberian Heights are draining away now we have the scope to pull this cold air south..if you think this is a bad run then I'm bemused tbh

Personally I think theres plenty of ec ens that are bringing about a much more favourable placement of the pv, and the profile up above looks much more primed too me.. I actually thought the gfs 12z ens were OK to but it seems you can't please everyone. For me we are becoming licked and loaded for winter to make a return towards end of week 1 Feb.. or thereabouts!

Boom there it is folks...

@Met4Cast well hang on a sec..you was bigging the situation up for quite some time just the other week.Now your saying we are in trouble! There is a greater degree of colder members today which surely is a good point! And background forcing does not guarantee the goods all the time for everyone...Just look back at the late Nov early Dec cold snap that came on the back of no forcing whatsoever. Also the met mention the possibility of colder conditions...it may have been pushed back but its still there.

@bluearmy Nick I thought the ecm ens look better than what I've seen for some time,yet some are not really convinced! For me weve taken a slight step forward today rather than the usual 2 steps back. I've got to be honest I'm finding this new layout rather strange..all I'm seeing is a load of @ this and that

Some very interesting ensembles coming out from the 12z...at last some excitement

The options remain on the table folks..yes the op was poor but there is now a fair amount of colder members in the pack.

Rrr but many a cold chaser on here will most definitely take it in March,as March can be quite potent,April not so much...but if most of Feb turned out mild and the very end of Feb into March went baltic...many myself included would be seriously happy. Some ens show where we could still end up..and I for one are in full winter mode for at least 6 more weeks.

I sometimes wonder if it would be better as it was in the old days..no social media..no wealth of access to model data and making do with the countryfile forecasts,and I tell you what back in the day many of these forecasts would nail it...even more so than the greater degree of information we have now. Ñext year I'm returning to the old school when I was 8...getting a picture of the UK from an old atlas,cutting some cardboard weather symbols and drawing my own isobars...yeh it's old fashioned but it seemed to work a treat..Try it folks it definitely eases the stress of it all

Hey folks I viewed that 6z op run and thought no hope! Looks like the ens had other ideas. All aboard the Feb express anyone??