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Always Upsidedown

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  1. Latest for Stansted temp = 4 & DP = 4METAR: EGSS 061950Z AUTO 04010KT 5000 -RA BKN007/// BKN013/// OVC026/// //////CB 04/04 Q1005
  2. This gives me reason to be a little more optimistic. Nothing suggesting any heavy snow and certainly not persistent snow but perhaps a few cm. Light snow to start in the early hours. TAF: EGSS 061704Z 0618/0724 04007KT 9999 SCT003 BKN008 TEMPO 0618/0622 6000 RA PROB40 TEMPO 0618/0622 BKN003 TEMPO 0622/0701 2000 SNRA OVC003 PROB40 TEMPO 0622/0701 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 0701/0704 04016G28KT 3000 -SN TEMPO 0701/0707 0800 SN OVC001 PROB40 TEMPO 0707/0718 0800 SN OVC003
  3. Well i really hope that your right but i just don't see it. As a pilot i know how far forecasts and reality can be at odds. As has always been the case and always will be the case all become clear in due course and in truth nobody knows how much will be on the ground this time tomorrow.
  4. Unfortunately the weather never looks at apps on phones. Nor goes it view charts, it just does what it does and the trend is pretty clear for this area. Has been all day. We will get snow, just not very much.
  5. Sorry to say that our general neck of the woods will do well to get any more than a couple of cm by the end of Sunday. Looked quite promising for a while but it was clear from this morning that this was not going to be a major event for our area.
  6. Well this is not going to be a non-event for me at Stansted but probably wont see more than 2-3cm. Very optimistic 24hrs ago but much less so now. Oh well, back to the rugby. The thing is and what i have to keep reminding my self is that charts are just charts and that the weather will do what it does and it gives pays no heed to any prediction.
  7. I really hope that you are correct. Maybe i am just being a bit glass half fullish. Speaking of which Rugby starts soon so better get a glass of something sorted out.
  8. I will be interested to see how this snow depth chart would look if were to be updated right now. I suspect a significant downgrade. I hope not but certainly for my area near Stansted i cant help feeling that snow depths will be o more than 3-4cm by the end of Sunday.
  9. The good news is that the TAFs for Norwich & Stansted have now been amended with an increased likelihood of snow. Still not great and still likely to be wet and slushy but better than nothing. Still time for further amendments to come. Defo more positive now.
  10. No, its not the best. Also remember that prob 30 doesn't mean that there is a 30% probability! its a bit more binary than that. Prob 40 means that it is likely to happen, something like a 75% chance (ish) and prob 30 means it is not likely to happen, something less than 25% chance (ish). There is never a prob 50, 60 etc. Strange system isn't it and a can't imagine what sort of mind came up with it but strangely it actually works quite well. You may have known that already in which case I am sorry for teaching my grandmother to suck eggs. I always go with the TAFs on the day.
  11. Yes. But this is the thing Nick - PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004. Its a Prob 30 which means that the +SHSN will most likely not happen. Now if it was a prob 40 that would be a different matter. The tempo means that even if it did happen it would last no longer than half the period covered which would mean 1.5hrs at best. Hence my pessimism. Only prob 30 & no more than 1.5 hrs.
  12. Sorry but the Norwich TAF says that if you get any snow at all (which is unlikely) it will only be very brief, an hour at most.
  13. That would be nice but I suspect that Southend will get nothing and my neck of the woods (Stansted) will get next to nothing or nothing at all in terms of snow fall. That's based on the airport TAFs and they are seldom wrong I am afraid. Hoping that Thursday turns out to be a bit better because for me all hope of anything even half decent has gone for tonight.
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