Thunder and Lightning

Sorry I realised I didn't answer all of your message. A week late, I know, sorry! But sure you can share and link the video if you want!!

Oh, I didn't realise there was a tornado in Bucks? Do you happen to have any damage reports etc. Also, I am currently 50/50 whether it was a supercell. Some of the footage of it round Heathrow area showed some slight rotation. When I was there the storm certainly had some supercellular appearance characteristics but I didn't manage to get enough of a stable shot to note any proper rotation. In the middle of the storm certainly felt very intense, but as I was there I probably have a slight bias for it be the more extreme thing and for me to want it to be my first supercell, so I dont want to rush in calling it one if it is not really. But that being said, would not be surprised if it was found to be a weak supercell. If anyone has any thoughts, footage, anything interesting at all about this I would love to hear!

Here is my footage from the event... was quite intense must admit one of the strongest storms I've ever experienced in my life!

Just a moment... RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM This isn't quite thunderstorms but in similar realms. I read it last year and it was good!

Oooh this looks nice.

I really like the sound of this new addition, even though I haven't currently got a NetWx Extra subscription. Any sort of timeframe for any big updates, like adding new models? The charts, layout, and colour scheme of NetWeather is probably my favourite of all data providers and I would love to renew, especially if there will be more models in the NetWX style.

Lightning potential looks very good with those active storms west of the IOW. I am a bit more concerned about the ones in Kent right now... worried it might be more East of London at least in this current round. Fingers crossed for further development through the evening as plume continues but a bit concerned majority of MLCAPE may be depleted. Good luck all.

Well Storm Eunice was definitely quite a noteworthy event here. Here is all my footage from the event, if anyone is interested.

Can you imagine if we get those 90-100+mph gusts from a sting jet

Obviously don't want you to get hit by a sting jet, but I would imagine if one were to occur further south, it would be pretty bad - 90-100mph gusts in London? Yikes. Let's hope we don't get a sting jet.

Yes. Especially the fact that this region has not seen 70-80mph gusts for many, many years. It has potential to be a very high impact event, at the daytime, during the week, populated areas. Even if significant downgrades did occur it would still be disruptive. ...And with the potential for a sting jet, the ceiling is very high for potentially very severe winds.

I feel like this has *potential* to not age very well

Was that at the top of the BT tower if I recall correctly?

Yikes. While ICON often overdoes windspeeds, this shows there is still scope for upgrades. Things could get pretty bad.

Yep, 18z ICON now coming into line with most other models. 70-85mph widely

In my experience often over-estimates wind on topography such as mountains and valleys etc quite significantly. It is on a quite different track to other models anyway. Will *probably* shift north for 18z anyways. Yes agreed here as well in NW London. Big rumbling gusts, can feel it in the windows occasionally. Exciting!

UKV is likely to follow this I would guess

Met Office app going for 64mph for me - new record

Yes, usually i'm one always hoping for an update and more extreme weather, but I must admit 80mph sounds pretty scary!

Wowzers. GFS 18z brings the low more intense and a tad further north than 12z. 90mph through Bristol Channel. 85mph Midlands. 80mph in London? Would be pretty bad.

Same with mogreps - that solutions is in the relative minority of the ensemble output. Also growing confidence of 70-80mph through central England suggested by MOGREPS again

Thanks - make sense

GEM... again suggesting what looks to me like 90-100mph gusts. Can't be right. I used meteologix.com earlier today and it was more like 70-80mph for the morning run which was similar. Maybe something wrong with meteociel but im not sure if that makes sense/could be possible or not.

Probably are waiting to see if storm continues to trend south or see if signal grows or disappears etc, and then if trends are maintained, will probably issue a smaller amber tomorrow and then maybe extending it by Thursday. Just speculation though.

06z GFS suggesting slightly increased confidence now. Like others have said we should wait for 12z to see if trend continues