SqueakheartLW

Warmth is persisting and slightly increasing in the western Pacific and the El Nino is hanging on very well although has become a very modoki event now. Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Anomalies 7 day anomaly change Are we sure we are heading to La Nina or are we going to set up a 2nd year Nino and a modoki event for winter 2024/25?

What is of particular interest for this year is how warm the start has been and you'd think we are top at this stage but one year had a warmer start than this one and that year was 1990. This is based on years from 1878 onwards when daily mins, maxes and means are all available. Below I have the 6th April rolling annual mean CET's 6th April Rolling Annual Mean CET Pos Year 6th Apr Rolling Mean Final Finishing Pos Final Rolling Mean 1 1990 7.266 9 10.655 2 2024 7.137 ??? ??? 6 2014 6.804 3 10.948 10 2020 6.637 5 10.752 11 2022 6.538 1 11.149 12 1999 6.450 8 10.660 18 2023 6.330 2 11.101 32 2011 5.944 6 10.715 40 1949 5.700 10 10.642 88 2018 4.613 7 10.679 97 2006 4.493 4 10.863 1990 of course did go on to finish in our current top 10 warmest years on record but slipped down the order compared with some other top 10 years What would be of interest would be if from today forwards we saw 2006 values from 7th April to 31st December 2024 (The year that has most to gain of the eventual top 10 from this point forwards) the provisional annual CET at the end of 2024 would be ..... 11.546C Shows what could be possible this year with a new annual record set that would smash 2022 by a decent margin of +0.397C

Summer8906 1994/95 not cold but could we count the 1995 as 1995/96 as that was a colder winter 2011 wasn't especially cold but maybe Dec 10 was continuing this cold sequence on Look out for a cold winter in 2026/2027 then and 2042/2043 On the other run the next cold winter should be 2094/2095 but I'd have to get to almost 110 years old to see this one.

LIGHTNING ACTION The rest of the storm lovers in the UK must be jealous right now. It's the only storm activity in the entire UK

TJS1998Tom Was good for those just west of Lincoln but typical the thunder and lightning stops before it gets here LOL Unless it suddenly starts again then I just missed out

TJS1998Tom Think Scunthorpe is in for a direct hit

summer blizzard If I narrow these down to La Nina years following strong to Super Nino events we have: 1973: -2.0 1983: -1.0 1998: -1.6 2016: -0.7 Still a range here but unlike the above selection I think these are all CP La Nina events which typically doesn't bode too well if you want a cold winter unless the event is weak. Of the 4 winters following the 4 above only 1983/84 could come close to cold. I could still have hope for winter 2024/25 though as the last 2 winters featuring La Nina combined with an expected WQBO have turned out not that bad. 2020/21 had cold snaps and spells scattered throughout whilst 2022/23 did feature that cold December spell as well as the short cold interludes in January and March 2023.

Notice CFS is going all in for a Super Nina again Last 3 Nina's it's done this then it backed right off to weak/moderate in the end. Is this another repeat of the same or will we go to Strong/Super

I would have thought the reverse tripole would be the best anomaly pattern for a hot and dry summer like 2018 The cold blob summers between 2014 and 2017 I wouldn't call hot or dry. 2014 was probably the "best" of these summers but even that one I wouldn't call particularly dry. 2015 was generally poor overall apart from some drier days in June and the 1 day heat spike in July. 2016 was mixed and 2017 started out quite good but got worse as it went on.

damianslaw Snow in March nearly always comes after a cold winter or one that featured several cold snaps but on occasions it can crop up in other years. Of the years you mentioned I know that 1984/85, 1986/87, 1993/94, 1995/96, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2012/13 and 2017/18 were all either cold winters or had several colder snaps within them. 1979/80 and 2007/08 not so cold winters and 2007/08 was a milder one. I often think there are similarities between 2000/01, 2005/06 and 2017/18. All of them featured a SSW event in the mid to late winter period. All of them featured colder weather during the winter itself and had snow roughly in the same parts at the end of the winter and into March as well. 2000/01 - Snow 23rd Feb to 3rd March then again 17th to 21st March 2005/06 - Snow 24th Feb to 5th March then again 11th to 20th March 2017/18 - Snow 26th Feb to 3rd March then again 17th to 19th March

summer blizzard That's a rapid transition to La Nina predicted there. Hope that doesn't mean a washout summer on the way. However it seems we are maintaining the usual form of a 1 year wonder with an EP El Nino which switches straight to a La Nina the following year. It seems its the CP El Nino's that have more chance of going multi year.

joggs It's been the same every winter now almost uninterrupted since the record breaking basin wide Super Nino of 2015/16. That Super Nino seemed to mark a big step change away from a reasonable chance of cold and to frequently mild, very often for weeks on end too. Apart from 2017/18 with some cold snaps and the BFTE and to a lesser degree 2020/21 the theme has been dominated by mild and the dreaded winter killer Iberian heights Also of note is how all of the big summer heat spikes also coincidentally started in 2015 as well. That Super Nino certainly has caused something and coldies better hope the recent Strong to almost Super Nino event hasn't pushed us up another level to almost constant above average temps with excessive heat in summer as well.

Don Wonder if its the same thing that has stalled the descent of the new WQBO. It hasn't moved since it appeared back in October, very unusual for the WQBO which usually descends unhindered. Maybe we could see a failure of the WQBO this time around.

damianslaw Think we briefly went easterly on the 8th, the same day some of us saw the only snow of the month

danm Surprised we only got to the red +2.5 to +3.5 considering the mildness this month. Was expecting the top of the scale to come true