SussexSnow

Blimey - over the past couple of weeks I've been following the models quite loosely, just checking the latest GFS ensemble when I remember, and today I saw more agreement on something interesting next week. Only then did I peruse the other models... Goodness the latest GEM is some eye candy. I'm back baby!

You think that's bad. Apparently it's snowing here.

There is still a bump of 'New Snow' showing for Horsham from the GEFS, but it's shrunk a little since yesterday

There has to be a positive (from a winter perspective) of living on the south coast.

I'd settle for that

Agreed. As said above, on the locations I'm monitoring, the average has never been so low (-8.9c) as it is now

Not completely dry on the ensemble, admittedly for mid Sussex. This is New Snow P23 is the light blue line

Crazy cold on the ensemble by the 16th. Average 850hpa temp is -8.9c and some go as low as -14c.

Spot the outlier / trend setter* * delete as applicable

Why? Are you a royal prince?

Snow north of the M4?

True, but they both ran cold earlier, so take you pick. Until the ensemble converges we're going to be flip-flopping. At least the majority have 850pha temps down to close to -10c by 15th; in fact the average for the cluster is -6.5C, which is about as low as it's been shown recently.

There's the reason, a 17C range - with the GFS Op right at the top of the spread.

May I quote you on that? Oh I have

Or we'll see toys lobbed everywhere