Shillitocettwo

Im going to go all in or bust on this one. 15.2.C and 48mm. Absolutely no hint of this warmth from an average even cool first third but then a historic anticyclonic heatwave will see a run of 30.C or higher days and balmy nights under a strong Sun to squeak into the record bookd

What bothers me currently is that the CET is in the 11.something zone in the first half and its not like its even trying particularly for a record....you would expect something spectacularly anticyclonic driven by SE winds for this....when in fact we have had fairly banal weather patterns with the odd Southerly...if it actually tried there is now the potential for absolute destruction of CET monthly and daily records The only way my original temp prediction is coming off now is Yellowstone to erupt imminently....even then its not a certainty!

Has there ever been a successive descendency of temperatures Feb, Mar then April? Actually think this year might manage it! And has this ever happened?

I'm thinking this April will undercut February with a chilly 7.4.C (well near 1960-1990 average but first below it in many months.) Expect a 'stuttery stally Spring' with a number of frosts, snow and a feel more like Winter than any of the actual Winter months just gone. Drier thankfully at 40mm.

New seasons are... Summer - May 21st until October 10th. Summer temperatures will doggedly persist until early October when they will fall off a cliff. Autumn Monsoon Season - Oct 11th to Oct 31st - expect relentless rain, wind and Gales Fuelled by sea surface temperatures well above average and some actual cooler air to the North November pseudosummer - Nov 1st to Nov 18th - temperatures in the upper teens will make it feel like almost Summer minus any actual strength in the Sun Autumn - Nov 19th to March 11th - there's no way you can call it Winter, the leaves ars still green well into December and the temps are too mild to call Winter Winter - Mar 12th to Mar 19th - Some Sudden Stratospheric Warming event on steroids will push some Siberian Beast from the East style air over us which will find a weather front and dump a good few inches of unseasonably late snow Disappointing Spring - Mar 19th to May 20th - despite global warming some kink in the jet stream will deliver clear sunny skies but rubbish temperatures and a run of late frosts before snapping out of it and catapulting straight into a 30.C heatwave by the middle of May

March seems to identify as Winter these days and February Spring!

I now think it's almost inevitable March will go cooler than February. I think Winter will find the party belatedly with snow and relative coolth early doors, in fact the CET will be spectacularly down on Feb until late in the month where temps will hit low 20s for Good Friday swinging the month to 7.1 C , above average but around a degree down on a record breaking Feb. Quite wet but not as wet as Feb, EWP 66mm

March 2024 - Very mild start, brief cooler incursion then record breaking heat (30.C on Mar 29th) and record breaking CET of 11.4.C. April 2024 - Extremely dry and another record breaking month temperature wise with a few days north of 30.C. Another Lettucing of 12.4.C May 2024 - Outrageous and frankly worrying heat in places, 38.C the peak and the CET ripped apart with an 18.1.C Very dry! A record breaking Spring preluding a shockingly average June and cool wet July....

Jesus my Lettucing is virtually on track with 8.97.C on the tracker (vs my 9.0.C) I suspect there would be slight downward revision to the Met O. With cooler (er not cold) conditions next week unless my heatwave rolls in I can't see the prediction coming off however I think there is a very strong possibility of this being the warmest Feb CET on record, it doesn't even need to hit 8.0.C. it comes to something when a polar maritime incursion in Winter is barely capable of knocking the daytime maximum below 10.C! Lettucing - A month which lands a significantly above previous record CET eg December 2015. In honour of Lettucing Gutted

Well.....the CET is nearly 0.5.C above even my Lettucing. I do like snow and cold weather, honest, although a shame for my prediction! Still, if the cold spell isn't too long (I'm not sure I'd even call it a cold spell in the southern parts of the UK and CET zone, more colder) and we get a good 2019ing end of month I still feel this month will 'achieve' a record high month CET temp value

Im going for a December 2015 of Februaries Lettucing on this one with an astonishing 9.0.C Little in the way of cold, a run of southwesterlies at first giving very mild low even mid teens days but then a 2019 style setup towards the end of the month pumping Saharan heat in on a High Pressure wiping the floor with various records and giving a new High of 23.C in the UK. Dry'ish' at 49mm.

Im late for once! A sandwich month, broadly speaking a mild and wet start, dry with cold temperatures mid month but I sense, with a nice interesting band of transient snow, a very mild last third. I want to go lower but in this era of possible runaway climate change 5.0.C is the lowest Im offering with a wet 132mm.

Jan 24 - Abhorrently mild at first wirh mid teen temps that segues to a stormy start to the year and the punchbag for the Atlantic but a few transient snow events with an injection or two of Northerly air. CET 5.6.C Feb 24 - Extremely wet, worse than Feb 2020. Also mild to very mild at CET 7.3.C Mar 24 - Settling down and similar in pattern to 2020 with settled and rather warm end. CET 8.3.C Apr 24 - The first full month of a to be historic early long West European heatwave, very dry and a record 12.1.C CET May 24 - Warmer still with temps regularly exceeding 30.C and an off the charts CET of 19.3.C! June 2024 - The peak of the precocious heatwave Spring/Summer with maximum solar insolation pushing temperatures of exceeding 40.C in UK (peaking at 43.C) and even worse on the Continent with a 50.C in Europe and 46.C in Germany! Bone dry and a staggering CET of 23.1.C July 2024 - After the first few days a month long tussle between further feeds of heat from a baking continent and the Atlantic. Not as extreme but only a slither off the monthly record at 19.6.C CET August 2024 - Summer spectacularly down the pan now with a miserable run of depressions off the Atlantic and a washout. CET 15.9.C managing the first below average one for ages. September 2024 - Benign, at times autumnal at times Indian Summer and warmer than August at 16.2.C October 2024- The heat which never left the Continent returns on regular Spanish plumes giving an outrageous 16.3.C creating a mad warming up record Aug, Sep, Oct run and destroying the previous record. November 2024 - Smashing records early doors with 26.1.C recorded on 3rd, however a cold spell late month with snow dragging it out of record month territory at 9.5.C December 2024 - After such a shocking year highlighting climate change, December will be a month of High pressure dominance, frosts, fog and a very average 4.5.C

3.9.C and 51mm. December will help avoid a clean sweep of above average CETs for 2023. A month that will behave surprisingly 2010 like for its majority, disruptive snow and some double digit minus nights even quite far South, at one point around the 18th the CET will be hovering around the freezing mark for the month, however a rather sickeningly mild spell will take over with a snap to 2015 behaviour with impressive transient snow as it does so. After delivering 20.3 C on the 23rd, with the CET rapidly shooting up, a very nondescript Twixmas of mildish dreary fog will set in to close out the year.

Here's my current thinking... December 2023 - Not quite 2015 territory but still 2nd warmest with near incessant low pressure systems and storms barrelling in from the Atlantic and south-westerly fetches, which will deliver the first ever 20.C plus day in UK at a staggering 20.1.C. CET 8.6.C and EWP 126mm. January 2024- This one will break records too, overall a CET of 8.0.C and a very similar Atlantic dominated pattern. A bit less soggy than December at 75mm. February 2023- Finally something that behaves a bit more like Winter with the incessant Atlantic lows giving way to ridging and even a decent cold week mid month. Some snow as this breaks down with a CET an above average yet feels cold of 5.1.C If you want proper cold you'll have to wait until March where a nasty SSW event brings a proper chill down from Siberia and the lowest CET of the year at 3.8.C