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97 mph gust now recorded at Capel Curig on xcweather.
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92 mph gust reported at Capel Curig according to xcweather.
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Must be a number of forecasts being rewritten, then rewritten again! How on earth can you keep up with all this! Sense says don’t tune in until Sunday now when things ‘may’ be clearer, but we won’t!
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There should be plenty of caveats around with these models and forecasts. Events still 5 days away where just one little feature moving 50 miles can have a big say on an outcome.
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Quite true. What’s left of the ‘plunge’ from the north on Sunday/Monday is still 5 days away yet, and as you say it’s not beyond the realms that low to the south may play ball to our advantage in some way. I would not call it experience, but just viewing charts for 25 years plus says however our dominant wind direction normally has the biggest say in the end. That’s why I prefer, certainly for here a wind from the east without any southern low intervention. Yesterday surprisingly delivered a little more than I expected.
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And remember like us it’s also with weather models. “All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…..”.
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What has been startling is the loss of oomph from the cold from the north. It did seem nailed on there would be an artic sweep well through the country, now at best we are relying on developments to the south to dictate what happens.
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Or, as in a number of previous times in these circumstances, more and more models come into line, and meet in the middle with any models that disagree at that time.
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All fizzling out on this run, and no surprise whatsoever it’s setting itself back towards default mild. With such changes in the charts and still so far out, still hopeful another evolution is being sought so quite what we will be looking at as the day progresses tomorrow?
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Agree, it still hasn’t quite worked it out yet. Feel, as usual we are going to need a bit of luck with this still though.
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The latter stages of GFS are coming out which will probably show a westerly restored. Encouraged by this chart on the 12z. Well defined low to the south of us and that spoiler high from the west is holding off on this one.
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Waiting for a weather VR package to be created. We could have charts then experience the weather with no breakdowns, hiccups, spoilers. We get what we ordered!
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Haha. If we did get hit with something like that, we would not survive, not this country which reels under 1cm sometimes.
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I’ve seen ‘too good to be true’ charts for January, which ended up as mild south westerlies come the time. We are so far out still. The theme is much the same which is encouraging, but I’m seeing little changes which may be important come the time. Take this one, all it would need is a little shift north and it’s game over, but hoped to be proved wrong.
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That top one is a “Day After Tomorrow” slide.
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“and snow then 1 Member showed mild..” All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…
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After viewing weather sites for 20 years plus now, this sums up my take as it stands.
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Thanks Jo. On the 2nd chart, looking at everything that appears to be connected back to the centre of the storm, it’s reach appears to have been felt from Finland to North Africa. Quite a reach in the end from the initial focus around our country and France.
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Did Storm Ciaran affect Italy? The last I saw of it it was heading NE up the North Sea and filling? Storm Ciarán: Floods ravage Tuscany leaving three dead WWW.BBC.CO.UK Three people are confirmed dead and six more are missing as heavy winds and rain buffet central Italy.
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So sad to see. With trees snapped and in that condition, looks like the same or another tornado passed through to me.
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I expect we’ll see this loon for many years to come in various extreme weather programmes.
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Terrifying! As more pictures and videos are uploaded, aren’t people on the mainland very pleased they did miss all this? Traumatic, and we feel for the people of the Channel Islands.
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