jamesgold
Members-
Posts
295 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by jamesgold
-
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
jamesgold replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think even the most optimistic posters in the MOD forum have said a relaxation in blocking is probable in late Jan… I don’t think the updated are bad at all, they’re only hedging their bets on some milder incursions into the south - none of the typical “later in the period we see a return to milder conditions” it’s all “average” at worst -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
jamesgold replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
METO Long range text does now include “cold easterly” for next week - good to see this level of agreement -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
jamesgold replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Their confidence is very low in fact , it’s just if it happens it will be disruptive -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
jamesgold replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
These are runs from different days, the top pic is yesterdays… -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
jamesgold replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would you believe it, with all these forecasts, the Mauna Loa (world’s biggest active volcano) has just decided to erupt… If it turns into a major event, how might that in Hawaii affect the atmosphere? Any clues? -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
jamesgold replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
43 again… surely not… -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
jamesgold replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s a ridiculous chart -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
jamesgold replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Southeastern trains looking to stop all services now… ABSOLUTE FLOP! WHY IS MY HOUSE STILL STANDING?!? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, I guess it’s look to the stratosphere time. That was a really good shot at blocking with strong signals, but you’d have no idea looking at the charts. Surprising to see with all the drivers in our favour. I have a bit of an all or nothing feeling about this winter, when will we get these drivers again in such a combination? Anyway winter in the UK pretty much begins in January so let’s see… -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ah, was fearing that -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very interesting end to the ECM, maybe our fail this time is just one of those teasers we need to get to a main event… However I fear the MJO falling away might put a stop to that -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There has to be some sinister motive to these models… I was all ready to take a few days off here expecting a 100% flip to mild for the next week. Yet here I am pinning my hopes on the GEM… My hunch is for the GFS solution to be right but I’ll keep hoping -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can’t believe I’m saying this but I think ICON may have won this spell… consistently not backed it recently -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
jamesgold replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The mood is soooo despondent, and it seems like it’s based off this 18z. Let’s see where we are in the morning. This low going into France isn’t all bad, and especially if you’re midlands southwards I’d still be hopeful. We’re at the point where hi-res models will play around with ideas until the time, we’re only at the end of Tuesday so a long way to go…