Uncertainty

Are we finally heading towards the promised land? As in, a U.K. high? The ensembles certainly think so. GEFS GEPS I’m not going to fret about random GFS Ops progging the big Greenland high. As long as the means stay solid on the U.K. high, we’re all good.

Rain All Night good spot on the 6z GEFS. Along with the op, it’s the best ensemble set for U.K. high pressure I’ve seen since the January spell (ie the ‘last’ spell ) But, as @johnholmes wisely points out, we need a few days of this sort of U.K. high type output to have any confidence that it’s a trend and not a whim. Given the tendency the modelling has had to underestimate the flatness of the pattern since last June, I remain highly sceptical of any pattern change - especially up here in the nw; things do look more optimistic for the se. That said, it has to happen sometime and - if the last decade is anything to go by - maybe when it’s stops, it’ll stop if you know what I mean. When the 19/20 barrage ended we went dry for ages. Similarly after the horrors of the 15/16 winter 16/17 had many a long dry period. Long wet spells have generally given way, after 6-9 months, to a drier trend. Especially, like now, after a Nino has faded. Perhaps the latest ec seasonal - with a +nao and heights close to the U.K. might be suggestive of better things to come in the summer. Indeed, most seasonal output does seem to be suggesting a +nao and thus the possibility of a warmer, drier summer. We can’t say we haven’t earned it.

In Absence of True Seasons absolutely agree mate Summer8906 I think the high solar, Atlantic SSTs, the ssw and plain bad luck are driving the continuation. One sure thing about luck is it has to change but the first two aren’t anytime soon. You wouldn’t have thought a quick / rapid transition to a Nina will help either. Maybe the return to a period of relative SPV strength might shake things up. I hate west based -nao more than any other pattern, apart from the dec 2015 pattern. We haven’t had a scandi high that has affected us positively since June. We’ve had about 15 pointless Greenland wedges in that time and all we get are a U.K. low or back door southwesterlies. Regardless, having 10 wetter than average months in a row really would be something. Imagine if it was the other way round? I still think that when it flips it flips these days. I just still can’t see any sign of it happening.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many euro areas this wet before on a 10 day op, gem: On that chart, only really the western Czech Republic looks dry. Fwiw, the gfs seems to apparate a wedge of heights in the extended. Not very well supported by the ensembles, who continue to indicate a low sandwiched between a west based -nao and a se euro high. Not a pleasant combination and one that we appear to be getting so often recently. I’m not sure what weather enthusiast could get enthusiastic about that pattern. I realise some people like rain, especially after a dry period. But not after 10 months surely. Everything is just so damp. And boring. I’m searching hard for signs of drier, sunnier weather. When I find it, you’ll be the first to know.

Both gem and ec Ops going down the big block to the nw scenario Both still manage to be wet though (obviously). As has been the case for, well, ever, it’s too far Nw to actually bring a cold Ne type instead we get trapped between that high and the ever present se euro high. Something about the Atlantic / solar / SST global setup must be stacking the cards in favour of this kind of blocking. It’s completely useless for us unless you like above average cloud, rain and moaning on this thread. I have found a little smidgen of hope/cope on the GEFS. Dry weather / spring could be a mere 300 hours away. If I was a squirrel I would carry on hibernating till then.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel / gutter? Some signs in the extended range of a post-Easter switch in weather type with more influence from high pressure. Ec clusters 3 reds at the final step. GEFS extended is nondescript , but no obvious low… GEPS has more of a high to the NW Would still most likely be drier than what we’ve had (not hard). Grey in the east maybe. But still the drier theme. The mjo also now progged to move quite strongly into phase 8/1 The strong phase 6 -where we’ve been -surely has a part to play in the coming Atlantic / U.K. trough Then there’s the downwelling waves from ssw #426. Though to be honest, getting excited about the strat ain’t what it used to be after this winter. Still, it’s still very reversed, so you would think the easterlies will take over eventually. I maintain my belief that the pattern will flip at some point. Hopefully for good and we can revert to a more Nina driven drier trend. This has been a coruscating 9 months - relentless in its miserableness. When the next U.K. high does eventually settle in. Take a moment to appreciate it. Thanks Josh

stodge interestingly the op could have been a trendsetter, the mean has strongly moved towards it: 144 current 168 yesterday More of an influence from scandi and a brief easterly, rather than the negatively tilted trough and nw winds. The mean still gets the Atlantic again eventually; it’s more of a delay. Interesting nonetheless. Perhaps the ssw / WP mjo finally starting to show its hand. Let’s see where we’re at tomorrow.

1% chance: The ec op has spotted a new signal 99% chance: every other model / ensemble This winter has taught me what I already knew: op runs are simply single perturbations - if they fly in the face of consistent means, then they’re for the Will the ec op be right then? I’ll let you decide…

Rain All Night it’s basically a U.K. low taking the best part of a week to fill. Horrific for crops and yields nationwide. Probably to be replaced or superseded by another one. God what I’d give for a 2018 or 2022 summer now. On that note my initial analysis hints at a reasonable summer - in the se especially - so maybe not bad for you mate. Long way off mind. We’ve had 2 one week U.K. highs in 9 months (sept and Jan). We need one asap. AI model has this in goo goo land. Bank?

A predictably pathetic climb down from the gfs. Run after run it has produced a phantom block giving chilly easterlies but we all know what we’re going to get is U.K. low number 353 since last July. Even the icon gave up the nonsense earlier. Last run What we’re actually going to get is something like this monstrosity I mean come on. What is that? Save us, La Niña.

Not seeing this phantom U.K. high coming to anything. The last 9 months have seen the U.K. become a beacon of low pressure, rain and gloom. The eps and geps have sacked off any hopes of a meaningful pressure rise. Even a split ssw and high amp mjo into the pacific doesn’t matter anymore. Im sure it’ll flip eventually, but this is one of my least favourite periods of weather. Always the promise of interesting, settled or cold weather but the reality has been utterly grim.

Met4Cast there have been enough ops recently having a go at the cold pool to view it as a feasible option. However, the blown up trough is probably more likely given recent form - we have really struggled to get lows to undercut in recent years. Need to see that cluster disappear and full model agreement to start even thinking about looking at the cold pool / dew points / precip intensity etc. The ecm op solution nearly goes belly up and then rescues it at day 9/10 - that’s light years away in modelling terms. The UKMO gets there quicker but I’m not convinced it would be particularly snowy. There has been a shift in the forecast for beyond day 10 today, yesterday the models wanted to barrel the Atlantic back, today the high looks more resilient. Plenty of twists and turns to come but personally the excitement has ebbed away for me after the Jan / Feb forecast fiasco.

The upcoming trough disruption against rising heights to the NE is a scenario the modelling typically struggles with. Whilst this time round is no different, the ensembles have actually been rather consistent with their idea of a negatively titled trough and the U.K. in a se wind on the periphery of the high. However, this does feel like one of the few scenarios where upgrades to the strength of the high to the Ne are plausible. So here’s the UKMO, minibeast? GEM also has an upgraded scandi high leaving the gfs continuing with its encroaching sw low? The gfs represents the last few days mean pretty well, but the others are the upgrade paths that seem increasingly plausible.

@IDOyou’re absolutely right mate. A se flow, potentially more low pressure dominated than high does seem the form horse on the means. Only reason I wouldn’t rule out something akin to the ec op is the big reversal plus, of course, the irony of avoiding cold Synoptics till after winters finishes. The op cluster has 8 members so less than 20%. I actually think that’s about right for the probability of a cold long fetch easterly amidst a -15m/s protracted reversal / potentially unfavourable mjo phase.

Stunning chart!