Tomorrows ECM 12z says 'HOLD MY BEER'
As far as I remember from the charts and as a poster has mentioned above, we were always looking at around the 14th/15th for any real cold spell to materialize once the HP had set in place.
Flip flopping is something we are used to, just like disappointment, so let's not get ahead of ourselves just in case the usual happens and somehow a more zonal pattern takes hold.