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Liam Burge

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Everything posted by Liam Burge

  1. Liam Burge
    Also. It does seem like another named storm is coming on Tuesday. Although not named currently, the MetOffice wording to the current yellow wind warning suggests a possible amber warning (which would warrant them naming the storm) "although it is not yet clear where the most likely location for the stronger winds is at this time. Further updates to this warning are likely in the coming days."
  2. Liam Burge
    It does seem to be real, the location being "athboy down in meath!!" (from the OP)
  3. Liam Burge
    Seems like Isha is still intensifying.
  4. Liam Burge
    With the new amber warning that has been introduced into parts of Scotland, the impact matrix has been increased to a 'high' impact. This could allow a red wind warning to be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow if confidence increases in the track.
  5. Liam Burge
    I agree with this. Although the current yellow warning is just one stage below the Amber warning so it could potentially get expanded tomorrow morning. However, that will only give people around 8-10 hours lead time before the winds start; begs the question on if an amber should have been issued earlier. I've definitely been under amber wind warnings for less than is currently showing.
  6. Liam Burge
    I do suspect the amber warning to be expanded tomorrow morning given this wording for the yellow wind warning. I believe more of the SW will be included in this amber warning. It doesn't look like a red warning is likely, at least in my opinion, however if models do uptrend or show Isha deepening faster than expected, a red warning could potentially be given out.
  7. Liam Burge
    A definite 'upgrade' on the MetO outlook today. Especially the ending lines: "but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period.". The GFS definitely isn't the preferred solution currently, and I believe this is due to it's bias to always want to return to something more atlantic-driven. Looking at ECM and UKM paints a much better picture with cold air becoming entrenched across the whole of the UK.
  8. Liam Burge
    I'm surprised no one is raving about the GEM! It truly is that this morning. Although the 850s are only around -4 to -8c, this is probably the preferred solution for a locked in cold spell, with low pressure systems constantly bumping into the colder air. Would prefer to see the 850s be a little bit colder however, this is 240 hours out.
  9. Liam Burge
    Wow, just wow. Compared to the 18z run this is night and day. The 18z was a stonker of a run and this is already looking so much better! Heights are a lot better positioned and cleaner, and the PV is ready to drop on us.
  10. Liam Burge
    0z vs 18z GFS, heights are a little further north and are a little better aligned in my opinion.
  11. Liam Burge
    This GFS run may just be the best chart of the season (currently). Would be bitterly cold under that air, would struggle to get much above 1-2c during the day, and hard frosts at night. Looks like the heights are re-establishing themselves too.
  12. Liam Burge
    We'll have to wait for ensembles, but I would say that the GFS is definitely on board with the idea now.
  13. Liam Burge
    Wow. Just WOW! That would be an amazing snow storm for parts of America, along with setting us up for a perfect intercept of the PV.
  14. Liam Burge
    I have a feeling this run is going to be something special. Stronger heights over us, the PV looks better aligned (at least imo) and seems like an easier retrogression towards greenland as the lower pressure is weaker. 0z vs 18z
  15. Liam Burge
    Because the professionals at MetO don't throw their toys out the pram over a few model runs (that are literally complete outliers). The cold is definitely still on, and I believe GFS 6z will be back on track.
  16. Liam Burge
    Look at those heights towards Greenland!
  17. Liam Burge
    Look at those heights over Greenland! This could be a very interesting run.
  18. Liam Burge
    The amount of warming events happening this year is something quite extraordinary. It's warming event after warming event just slowly grinding away at the PV, and by the end of the GFS run the PV is almost non existent.
  19. Liam Burge
    And there's the amber warning. I thought it would come. The low pressure system is now called Storm Henk.
  20. Liam Burge
    Agreed. Latest GFS has gusts of 72mph for my location, however this is definitely the most bullish solution.
  21. Liam Burge
    Anyone up for round 2?
  22. Liam Burge
    In stark contrast to this, EC has been gradually trending more TOWARDS an SSW.
  23. Liam Burge
  24. Liam Burge
    Is this the start of a potential SSW now emerging on the GFS?
  25. Liam Burge
    Well, this would almost certainly be a named storm at +60h.
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