Scott Ingham

Mark Bayley Yeah! I’m 1 degrees colder than forecast and 0.8 degrees colder dew points. It always seems to be like this every day unless my weather model is rubbish haha! Oh and I definitely wouldn’t turn down March 18! That was a nice spell here in Rotherham! winterof79 Personally I think we have no chance of avoiding the melt Thursday night but it we can stretch out an extra 3-5 hours it will definitely make a difference to the totals I guess!

winterof79 yeh 1000% in situations like this Evap cooling is so important!

Mark Bayley you can minus 1-2 off of the models usually pal from experience putting many areas just the right side of marginal. If you have a weather station it will be all about observations at 10 am I’d say to see how close or not some of the models are

Cheese Rice My own opinion is we will literally JUST be on the right side of cold due to models always taking temperatures and 1-3 degrees higher than normal (this being a bias in forecasting bloated dew points) taking that in to account in a finely balanced situation is where my thinking comes from. But come 10am tomorrow observations of the cold and DP’s will be the over riding factor. The fact the met are on board for a moderate covering is another plus and another example of experienced forecasters adding human input in and not taking the models completely at face value. Lets keep our fingers crossed we at least get to see a covering and after that there’s plenty of winter left with the SSW about to make the end of February and start of march interesting for a final hurrah in what’s been a close but no cigar winter and bad luck considering so much has been in our favour in regards to many climate drivers

cheese fair enough buddy each to their own! I love snow no matter the amount or how long you t lasts personally! In a warming world I take what I can get

Mark Bayley you’ll have a covering of 2-5cms that will melt Friday morning. Be enough to get out in it for an hour or 2 however! Better than a kick in the teeth! Cheese Rice that’s snow in Sheffield, Rotherham and Barnsley though. The arpege and WRF are showing widespread 2-5cms on low ground and these models I’d always have confidence in. The UKV can be a little under done on snow amounts and snow lines

winterof79 thanks mate. Yeah as I suspected a period of heavy snow for a wide area of west and South Yorkshire before turning to sleet and finally rain early Friday morning. Will just be nice to see it falling out of the sky I suppose!

sebastiaan1973 ahhh thanks for that Seb it’s saved me some time! So a later ssw but possibly a qtr this year compared… interesting!

feb1991blizzard I’ll have a look I’m just trying to work out if we’ll have the right conditions earlier or later than 2018 which obviously will make a difference in times of increased solar interference. I suspect this year will be a much quicker down well however as the atmosphere appears far more coupled than 2018

feb1991blizzard yep! That’s also my opinion! The best since the 2018 split! What date did the split happen in 2018? I can’t remember!

reef it’s between 12 and 5 that snow is forecast for South Yorkshire. 6pm that is about right. It’s not forecast to stay as snow on the ground it’s forecast to melt Thursday night. Have you got frames for 12/2/4? cheese It’s going to be a day of settling snow for most apart from the East turning to rain in the evening. It will just be nice to see some snow settle on the ground for a few hours I guess!

feb1991blizzard That split is close to perfect with the right balance of energy to stop a west based -NAO and enough cold to head west from Eastern Europe! This Strat run has me tentatively out of hibernation!

LeeSnowFan I think you’d meet up okay at that time but the roads and public transport would be a pain on the way back I’d imagine! Friday looks doable however tho it will just be wet!

LeeSnowFan 2-5cms mate but it will all be gone Friday dinner time. I just want it to settle nice and early to get out in it while we can

mike57 yeah you’ll be too far east and too low down to see settling snow id imagine. Areas in South Yorkshire look the sweet spot. With 15-25cm over the Pennines. Low levels will see settling snow still with 2-5cm by 4pm and a slow thaw in the late evening by the looks! Shame as it will be too dark to enjoy a sledge in the day by the time there’s enough snow on the ground I’d imagine!