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Hotspur62

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Everything posted by Hotspur62

  1. Neilsouth Yep not helpful when you plan your working day accordingly and you are self employed working outside.Forecast only 40 miles out but that makes a huge difference to a lot of people.In this day and age it just shows there is nowhere near 100% accuracy even 12 hours beforehand!Frustrating but the weather will do what it wants to do!!
  2. Can’t believe that yet again we are due another washout tomorrow!What is it about Thursdays atm.?3 out the last 4 have been complete washouts !Of course the forecast could be wrong but it looks 80/90% certain for the rain to be falling steadily tomorrow for my part of NW Kent from 8am-6pm️
  3. This February really has been a bust in terms of what the models predicted and I really thought in terms of the winter months it held the best chance of a wintry spell for the U.K. as a whole.It was only mid late January that all models including the GLOSEA model that showed a real blocked picture and for them all to be wrong has totally bemused me tbh.I know we are only 14 days into Feb but now the models are pretty much all in agreement for next 10 days that there will be no blocking so that pretty much covers all of February.I had always held GLOSEA in high regards but just goes to show you that all the best models can and do get it wrong(this also happened last summer as well).Something is causing this but what?Is it simply the warm SSTs?I don’t have the answers as I am not qualified enough but something is going on which worries me for the future as the World continues to warm at an alarming rate.
  4. Already a balmy 10.6 today and will probably get to 12 degrees today,13 or 14 tomorrow and that’s with the prospect of little or no sun!!Looked at Mod thread about 10pm last night and checked just now and only 3 posts in about 9 hours!!That says it all and think everyone has given up on this winter me included.Roll on spring
  5. BarnetBlizzard That would gives the alps a nice dumping and kick start the ski season again
  6. Neilsouth Yep last night at 10pm met office app said rain started at between 2-3 pm.Started in Orpington at 9.05 and hammering down now and radar has filled so quickly and looks like rain all day now!!Thought I had a good 4/5 hours of work and reality probably just be the 1 hour!Not great when you are a self employed gardener!!That is such a poor forecast from only 12 hours outOh well better get on with some accounts as bit behind on them!!Have a good day everyone rant over.
  7. Absolutely stunning day today and lovely to work inFelt like spring arrived and tbh looking at next 14 days unless the models flip it looks like it will stay mild pretty much for all of February which was very different to what a lot of experts thought even as late as mid January .Been an awful winter for us snow starved South Easterners but now I look forward to spring and more of days like today will bring on all the colour that comes with Spring
  8. This Winter has really been a major disappointment really with seemingly so many things in our favour leading into Winter yet things seem to have gone the way of the pear.Although we still have over 3 weeks of Feb left and models still showing northern blocking from say 15th onwards i am not convinced this will happen tbh.Its been Model chaos this last 5 days and we seem to yet again gone from a cold outlook to a just average outlook for the next 7 days,espicially down here in the SE.Once we get past say 7th or 8th march down here you can forget chances of lying snow here down here although inappreciate those up north winter can continue for a good 2-3 weeks more so good luck to those areas getting a few more bites of the cherry.If indeed come early March we are still snowless it will be a real kick in the you know whats from a snow pov and makes me question what has caused us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
  9. @Metwatch Thanks for sending those clips above.I thought it might be more newsworthy but I found nothing on mainstream news about it.What was strange was the British civil aviation authorities felt it was unsafe to take off from Sal on Thursday which is fair enough yet flights from Sal still continued that afternoon to Helsinki,Milan and Prague as our European friends felt it was ok to fly.Although it was pretty chaotic and frustrating I would much prefer to be safe than sorry in these instances.
  10. @Metwatch All that dust was over Cape Verde due to a sandstorm.Boa was hit worse but we had our flight cancelled from Sal on Thursday and got out yesterday luckily and got home early hours this morning.Those hoping to go to Boa not so lucky as no flights in or out yesterday and some poor souls from Birmingham who were diverted to Sal on Thursday had their whole holiday cancelled yesterday and were flying home yesterday.Sal airport was chaos on Thursday and we were stuck there 9 hours before we got shipped back to a hotel.And we were lucky as some people ended up sleeping in hotel reception as all hotels were full!!
  11. Scandinavia and Eastern Europe well and truly in the freezer again.Apart from a few days this week where milder temperatures occur this has been a winter to remember for them .The trough seems to have been stuck over them since late October it seems.A winter of the 80s for them with record cold temperatures.
  12. Yes my best mate lives in Brussels and for that area that could get between 10-25cms!,Could be a very decent event.
  13. Yes exactly the same for me as well.Forecast -2 last night yet was -4.8 in the end.The forecast high was 3 yet we only hit 2.Has been a trend this winter I have found.
  14. Another beautiful sunny winters day here.Peaked at exactly 2 degrees but dropped to -0.9 now but looks like cloud will move in so won’t be as cold as last night maybe a -2 if we are lucky.Would love that area of low pressure move 50 miles north at the last minute but about a 2% chance of that happening unfortunately
  15. Only got down to -4.7 here which was surprising as it was already -4.1 @ 11pm so didn’t fall much further.Still coldest night of winter though and maybe Thursday night will give us our final chance to get to elusive -5 from this current cold spell before milder weather comes in.
  16. Big winter storm hitting the South atm moving across to Washington later and then New York and Boston tonight and Tomorrow.Nashville currently only 13F and snowing heavily there with a good 4-6 inches already on the ground.It stays cold to very cold in most of the US till at least the weekend!!
  17. Started at -2.9 but a glorious winters day peaking at 1.7 but was zero by 3.45 and currently-3.1!!Think it could be coldest night of winter here and reckon -5 could be breached which is a rarity for here.
  18. I have lost a lot of faith in the EC46 over the last 12-18 months in both winter and summer and really take it with a pinch of salt !The Latest GLOSEA for February which came out a couple days showed quite extensive Northern blocking which is what the teleconnections seem to indicate and must be built in for this model?Although being a coldie I am not using this because it is what I would like to see,but more because I have more faith in it over the last few years.Of course it could be wrong and it will be interesting to see come 1st March. In the meantime today has seen the models back off a bit from Atlantic piling in and more resistance that this weeks cold will hold till maybe 21st January.After that yes milder weather looks favourite but more cold zonal so not excessively mild(just going on latest 18z gfs)Indeed I think Scottish ski resorts will be in for a good couple weeks starting tomorrow
  19. If this time next week things are turning milder the question for me is if we don’t get a full on SSW will that be the reason why this upcoming cold spell ended sooner than many expected.Would that have overridden all the other teleconnections?I don’t have the knowledge to answer that but maybe others do? Of course things may have changed during the week but as things stand would be curious to know the reasoning.Still got February to go which historically is UKS best chance of snow over last 10 years.Would love to have a good old fashioned scandi High
  20. Well as others have said this morning a rather disappointing trend has been set by the models.Yes down here very likely to see no snow here but week just gone has had temps is 2,3,3,3 and 5 for last 5 days and from today till next Friday a continuation of these temps looks well odds on.We also had a flurry of snow here but not settling yet 8 miles down the road Sevenoaks got 5cms!I am obviously disappointed by no snow but I think a large portion on northern uk will see snow/snow showers this weekI will just enjoy frosty sunny days which is the next best thing for me after snow and boy do we need a dry spell after 10 weeks of heavy rain !!
  21. Look at North America as well!!Looks like the whole continent is under High Pressure-a very odd looking chart
  22. Just a quick one while we await the gfs 18 z but if over last 12-18 hours where we have seen a pretty sharp drop in heights over Greenland (during middle part of next week)is it not possible for that not to bounce back again as even t+72 is not set in stone.I genuinely am fascinated by what the models are showing but the contrasts over the last few days one way and then the other makes me think there could be another twist?Probably wishful thinking from me but stranger things have happened. Whatever happens snow or no snow Monday-Friday looks cold to very cold with the lucky few seeing snow ,more especially in Scotland and Northern England I would guess.
  23. Guess he is looking at heights round southern Greenland where heights are higher on 18z?
  24. The Chiefs game against the Dolphins forecast to be the 5th coldest in NFL history this weekend.Forecast high at 5pm Kick off is -2F and drops to -5F at 7pm.Hope Taylor Swift wraps up warm for that game!That is brutal.The coldest game in history incidentally was then the Dallas cowboys played Green Bay Packers in 1967- It was -13f for that one!!Insane
  25. Been reading through the Mad thread(I know I can’t help myself) and some very well respected members(Tamara Queen of teleconnections and Catacol-both of who’s knowledge is awesome ) are suggesting we could be in for a very interesting January and February-The February of 1978 was even mentioned as a possible comparison .Even if we miss out on snow looks like we will be experiencing below average temperatures for some time!
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