AmatuerMet1963

I was looking foreword to the latter end of weekend to go out on my mobility scooter for some fresh but mild air in Wigan. But something went wrong. The charts last Friday, showed a large swathe are of rain, wind and Mild 11-12% by Sunday night and Monday the 23rd Jan. But something went wrong, we had no rain, no mild breeze, it remained -3-7% figures at night and only 6%C today. 4%C Sunday 22nd. all the weather outlets were saying cold snap over. But only this morning Kay Burley was showing frosty frozen lakes from sky contributor photos. So, my question is why did the forecasts for Mild weather at the weekend go so wrong. with multimillion pound computers, it just goes to show, the old fashioned analogue way and natural pointers are far more accurate , and really computers should be phased out, and them only used to track main stormy or dangerous weather. it seems impossible for this technology to get anything right just lately.

Windy c@m yes. But again, it's not very accurate, because it's using these ridiculous GFS and another One ecm or something. They are totally different in what's shown. Making it impossible to know which is righ. Which is why I don't any data from computer rather from historical analogue charts to compare my screen shots. Even Netweather, is playing this almost woke word. "a Hint" I mean you can't really use that in proffecional forecasting. It's either YES it's going to be very cold soon. Or it's going to average cold. "A HINT" IS NEITHER HERE OR There. It makes me laugh really. All these expensive computers, supposed to be spot on, when all they can say is "Hint" I wouldn't expect Bill Giles to describe an arctic N easterly as a hint. It's either yes or no. When forcasters told us in Kent it was going to snow heavily. That's what we got, just two forecasts a day if you were lucky enough to own a TV then. Or the shipping forecast my father and me listened to, as we used to fish often from Seaford or Eastbourne pier. The Noaa and Severe weather Europe is about the best right now, and all see the Siberian and N E Scandinavia moving ever closer. It's not a question of IF, IT'S A QUESTION OF WHEN. I would advise people to get themselves a generator. In my time we had coal fires with a back boiler heated all the main room and the water for everything. Gas for mums cooking. Electricity wasn't used. Only for lighting. And our large landing with 4 beds were heated with two large paraffin heaters. Electricity for heating wasn't known in 1963. Now was gas, as it was a different gas anyway. And most houses were not equipped with any infrastructures to exhaust carbon monoxide fumes.

I don't believe in models, I believe mostly my premium Windy as day to day actual weather, tracking the changes I can see coming. NOAA and the American Severe weather service I tend to believe in more. As I was bought up in my youth. That what America gets, eventually arrives in the UK. Standard science lessons at my school upholded that scenario. As as The old beasts from the East are concerned, they have become almost extinct for years now due deforestation leading to lakes of methane and loss of perma frost. A North East direction freeze seems most likely while the blocking high remains fairly stationary. The wildlife around me is changing habits this winter, that's enough evidence to point to severe conditions setting in. Being 71 now I still use analogue instruments and old wives tales lately has had a much better chance of being correct than any inert machine like computers

My first post for winter, and I'm rather dissapointed Netweather is sitting on the wall, clearly seeing the start of a 1963 winter, which I lived through for 3 months on the Sussex coast. Netweather has lost the natural way of forecasting we saw in the 60,s to 80,s. Computers are confused, because they were never designed to forecast natural events. I never use them. Just weather station in my garden. In the last 5 weeks, a massive amount of snow cover has been logged by NOAA. LATEST IS 182,000 KILOMETERS ACROSS ALASKA NORTHERN ICELAND, and for the first time for many years, The baltic and Russian land mass has changed from being affected by warming, to a norm of already - 40 at the end of November. Noting natural pointers, there is no doubt in my mind that uk will be covered in snow by Christmas with deep freeze of - 10 well into 2023. In my long association with weather, 50 years now, forcasters won't say or give an accurate forecast, for fear of being critised. The possibility of this Arctic air around the huge Scandinavian high is 100%. Major forecasters can't keep sitting on the fence being unfair to the general public wanting concrete weather outcomes. Relying and then dilly dallying over silly models which makes forecasters keep changing their mind. This setup on viewing the historical charts from 1962 to 1963 is roughly the same looking charts as now. Once the East frigid air gets in place, any such low pressures approaching the UK, will cause blizzards and freezing seas like it did in my days. I would rather Netweather make a proper conclusion that we are in for a 1963 winter. Mild conditions are not going to be seen for a long time, and I wish met office and BBC would stop being afraid to make a bold statement lik they did in the sixties.

Quite right. I saw it first hand after heading to Vienna by car from Dover via Frankfurt, Nuremberg on the 19th December 1989.i had paid out a small fortune in cold weather gear from the uk beforehand, snow chains, rugs shovel, deicers and a bottle of anti freeze. Plus skiing lessons before I headed to Dover Hoverport was expensive. Imagine my shock when I eventually drove into Salzburg the snow Capitol of the area, devoid of any snow or ice, in fact I just needed a T shirt. 55%f.the Alps were not the exciting to wonder at. They were just rock dark and empty. Ski lifts closed, resorts around the area all closed. I headed East the next day in thick fog. To Vienna for my two week stay, but although a bisk east dry wind prevailed, it was not enough to pull away the fog and had a miserable Christmas day vising the Schonenberg Palace shrouded by fog and the lakes just solid ice. But snowfall, not one flake. To me that was the first anomaly that made take up studying climate changes since that day. 1989 was the real start of change, but far too tenious a one off to a tribute to any climate shift

This is of course quite true for some decades now, the last cold snap. I remember last was in Blackpool in 2010. However, you remember Jack Hall in the Day after Tommorow talking about the AMOC and fresh water in the Arctic. But senior scientists were concerned only in July that the AMOC gulf stream that interacts with Artic waters where the overturning mechanics send altered streams that join up with other streams that act like a conveyor belt. They say although the AMOC is probably in no danger yet of collapsing, they have measured a much slower AMOC just recently. That if weakens any further we may lose some of gulf stream that still keeps our winters into the temperate zone, although we don't get beasts from the East anymore, because Siberia has lost most of its forests burnt back and melted the ice letting perma ice melt into bubbling lakes of merhane. The AMOC is paramount of what winters we get, so in closing, "global warning can also kick off global cooling in selected parts of the world.

oh right, have to check my overlays then thanks for the reply, overlays I find a little had to forget there on, comes with age lol Ah ok just found forecasted weather, changed it, and my region near Liverpool says 30%C.............Hope i can live with that. Im not good in the heat, anything over 70% I suffer stress and associated IBS symptoms. Im 25 miles rouhgly from Manchester, so hoping to avoid the spikes thanks for putting me to rights

I just checked my Windy.com Page an hour ago as Im a premier member which gives me a little more information. I didnt even get my area postcode A uk warning on the left hand pop up, of any severe temps. Whats going on??, while met office talks about 40C....my map shows Manchester airport at 72% -22%F.....on Monday. Tuesday shows about 25%C. The only place i can see 32% -38% is in regions of Bordeaux. BOTH GCF / ECWMF all seem to be the same!! Is Windy.com wrong , or is the met office wrong, both cant be right. rather frustrating really, for residents to know who to trust.?????

Well I never knew that, because 45 years of my life were spent in seaside towns where i would fish all day. Seaford, Newhaven Breakwater, Eastbourne Pier in school holidays, I also lived in West Wales coast, overlooking Milford Haven. I became a Pembrokeshire national park warden for some years. the times I sailed on the Pembs boat to Skomer Island watching the fish swimming below us was magical. until it was to late to to find the finance to move back in 97. Its was called the suntrap of the South coast many times. Im just fed up with being in the N West where the weather has some argument with me, its so different from the South Coast, and on muggy days here I suffer from lethargy, headaches, lack of fresh sea air or negative irons Im used to. II tried winning the lottery, afraid that hasnt worked for 10 years lol now. my old home in Eastbourne, which was mums dream of owning a Guest house was bought in 1959 For just £12,500 4 beds three reception, two door porch, walled garden loo and bathroom and another loo outside attached to the building it had 8 chimneys and every room had a fire place, Im told its price is now around £375,000....!!!! Insane, Well i didn't see very many wet Mays they were almost none existent in my patch, apart from really violent storms that one one summer in 1983, a thunderbolt and a water tornado hit, it hit a chimney stack now more than 800 yards away, it broke off , burst into flames, it knocked out three blocks of power, our hired new colour tv from Vision hire had no turning panel left, it went up in smoke, while 4 sockets blew out the plugs and was left smoking, so scary was the clap, our two dogs were never the same, and was quite ill every time they heard thunder, or fireworks in November, so we put the radiogram up high to drown out the noise. Hastings also got battered by almost super cell thunderstorms, the road that steeply climbs out on the A259 to Rye, had a huge hole left in the middle of road by a lightning bolt. My father was a toll keeper before I was born he would tell me of lightning striking the water, water spouts galore and even the odd porpoise pod, probably looking for mackerel. Its quite sad there is no Mackeral on the N west coast I when I lived in Blackpool at high tide i took my flys along with a good rod, but when I asked when do the mackerel come ashore, before or after peak high tide, only to be told, "There aint no mackerel to be caught from here lad", and never found out why not to be honest. oh well, cant help but remember my memories of better times, when the earth was still green, cars were few, and we all walked to school and into shopping centres with no car parks.

Oh it was 12 feet alright my friend, but let me correct that as a drift of 12 feet!! not lying snow, that along our prom was 7feet because me and my school friends measured it, the height of the prom near the Redoubt is 5-6 foot, well the snow was well over that, and in our wellies. it was incredibly dangerous, because you couldn't actually see where the edge to the road disappeared.. but lets talk about exaggeration. In Kent there were actual snow drifts and lying snow on top of railways engines you could walk in thats 15 feet or more. You can see for yourself on Chris Packhams introduction to the special program by the BBC hosted by Cliff Michelmore. you can find it on utube here. However your comments about 2010 are very general, and geographically we saw no snow in the Northwest town of Blackpool where we lived for 23 years. we had 2 inches of light snow overnight, then just bright sunny days with temps no higher than zero, Ice was a real danger all day. it was the only time I actually got a cold weather payment from the DWP. your other comments are interesting ,my father and me tended a huge allotment at the rear of Eastbourne's dyke and green area. we grew lovely veg and flowers i sold to guest house, like our 20 feet long line of sweet peas, I mean the real sweet peas with a heavenly fragrance. dad grew potatoes brassica, Runner beans and Strawberries enough to make a small holding business out of it, but the most thing i noticed was the abundant of insects enjoying pollinating the fruit and flowers. in my area, there is hardly any insects now. Our home had a large greenhouse so we grew cucumber plants and lots of tomatos, which we also sold on to our neighbours along our street which like my mum turned our huge house into "Swan House" her own Guest house. many people have never tasted a potato , straight out of the ground, they dont know what they are missing. !!As far as messing with flowers trying to look pretty instead of being resilient is a good comment i would support. but back then we had dozens of Thrushes in our back garden cracking open huge numbers of snails on their little f;at block of stone. I found back then , despite the South East was warmer, Mildew was more of a problem than pests. Countless gooseberry's had to be destroyed, Roses suffered from attacks from Aphids, but again nature has the answer, "Ants"...ypu could watch ants walking up the stems pinching or loading aphids and going back down again to the soil. greenhouse was different and had to use a soapy water in a spray bottle. my mother banned us using any pesticide or chemicals, even though i worked years in Garden centre, and was proudly picked by my manager to accompany Mr Percy Thrower on his days ICI product day or Bring a plant in day at our local giant Eastbourne Louis G ford store. yes managed fine in Eastbourne locally,but father sufffered as he was a unigate milkman with no doors on his float, he had snaow chains put on it, for weeks on end... but coal became scarce, and water burst pipes were everywhere, I used my sledge with two gallon cans My father told me to take to the ironmongers to fill up with paraffin, because we had no heating upstairs, and it was a 4 bedroomed house, so we had two paraffin heaters on the top landings, and some paraffin for the greenhouse heater. In 1963 electric heating was mostly not invented, mainy, because the old rubber wiring would never carry the current of todays mobile heaters. and our house was 1959 electrics, until in 1967 father managed to save enough to have a rewire, and replace all the lead water pipes. Thanks for an interesting reply

One thing I'm pleased about but will take years to make any effect. Is the ban on slug pellets. You don't need them if we let thrushes increase there number, they are the most effective natural way. And I actually saw Mrs thrush in one of our birch trees only a week ago. That's first time I seen any thrush since 2015. Black birds singing in the calm may evenings was so relaxing. But that's rare. I mean it's poured of rain every damn day this week. All they can say on forecasts is we get 22% and dry, until you note their making a general synopsis only including London. The last laast time me we had anything of that temp was a long time like 2020 in lock down. I just heard its only 55%f today here. Far to cold gor chicks far to cold for insects. 55% at this time of year for England is an anomaly, and last night 5he bloody radiators came on, even though they are off. That shows you the anomaly is here and getting worse. What if we have a winter like we had in the seventies, temps hovered at freezing point all day. See government's are useless. In my days we had three sourse of heat and energy. Electric, gas, and our coal fires that heated the back boiler. I went through 3 months of the 63 winter with ice floes around Eastbourne pier with 12feet of snow on the prom. What this country do in the midst of a big freeze???

Well all our tree growth and shrubs have for the second year running been very slow with barely a catkin on our birch trees until beginning of May. Even now they look terrible with warped leaves, not growing as quickly as they should. I put that down to frost we had then. So there's very little thick vegetation for our birds to make nests. But I stand by the fact that May has Always Benn the most dry and calm and warm month of them all. Even paddling in the sea at my new home town of Eastbourne in the late sixties and early eighties. I'm tennis fan so I used to attend the Devonshire Park event every year. In the 45 years I been going there, not once has it ever been called off because of rain. It just didn't happen, plenty of storms drifting in from France, but still, rain was only seen in storms and not go on for days like The Nort West. Its no wonder resorts like Blackpool we lived in for 23 years never gets rich because the weather just curtails holiday makers All I see here in Wigan is rain rain, uncomfortable humidity and vehicle pollution that increases the greenhouse effect by a value of about 20%over the normal for a seaside resort.

Haven't posted for a long time. But had to tell people I'm quite worried about May this year. Since I was born on normal sunny day Middle May, with 68%f, and clear sky's, May is the most settled and warm month more so than June in my 71 years. But this year has been truly more like March. High winds, unusual, cold, unusual, temps in Manchester recently below May normal added up to depressing Birthday. I would happily add. It that is the worst anomaist weather for A May in all my lifetime. After some time of looking at windy maps. Instead of the usual normal currents from South or South West, the direction seems to be coming from the North. This is not normal for late May. This is not only creating problems for travelling work or outdoor events, it's having a really serious effect on our wildlife. Although we have lots of birds in our court gardens, no wood pigeons have made any nests yet, which is most unusual. Our birch trees have normally 4 nests, 1 per tree and by now chicks should be seen, as we post them every year on our Facebook page. But with 30mph winds, again not normal for inland in May, the climate is not allowing them to build nests in trees. They did start in April, but what they made has been blown away. The other serious matter that effects us all including birds is the 58% decline of insect life in our area alone. (source Lancashire Trust I am a member of).... Cold and wet weather at this time of year decimate the normal life cycles of short lived insects. Many birds need insects as food, plus we need them to pollinate our crops and flowers we love. It's not just urbanisation which is risking a collapse of insect populations its our climate changing so rapidly we risk real crop failures and other garden greens like runner beans that need continuous pollinating to be able to make the runner beans. Farther afield in France hundreds of lamps had to lit in the vineyards to save vines from unusually late frost. In other areas of Europe, for three years in a row, hundreds of workers have to climb apple trees and pollinate them by hand, an almost impossible job, why?? Because the pollinating bees have either died from frost or other environmental issues have cut their numbers by again a good 60%. What's even more worrying is mad Putin is helping to reverse any progress we have made on co2 levels. With even the British govrrnmey poised to reopen at least two coal mines to try and boost our energy supply this winter. This of course is quite contrary of what we and my fellow climate activists, have been protesting about for two decades now. It's NO MOW THIS MAY. Councils and gardens have been encouraged to leave areas to grow wildflowers, so more insects have access to. pollen how ever I'm still seeing households using the mower despite numerous TV adverts and other media telling everybody NOT to mow grass until at least into June. I'm quite sad to live in this era now, it's no think like 5he fun and interest we had 50 years ago of studying beetles, logging butterflies of many k inds and exporing local ponds. I'm of the opinion our earth is dying quicker than thought even just 9 or 10 years ago. And there's no hope left now thank to Putin to curtail global temps to 1.5. I see 2.3% in a very few years, and once that rate has been reached there's no going back. If anyone's got any sort of plan to reverse the decline of our planet. NO PLANET B of course please let me know. Regards Mike very depressed at the moment

That was the year I set off by car from Dover to drive the 1700 miles to Vienna to see real snow at Salzburg. I might as well not hired snow chains skis or thermals, as there wasn't any snow on the alps and flowers were out on the 19th December 1989. It was 55%f many climatologists say this was one of the early warning signs of what we have now.. Which of course we're ignored. But spoilt a very expensive holiday of 3 weeks in Austria not seeing a flake of snow

Happy new year, but for the likes om in Manchester, its been a dire month with only 27 hours of sunlight the whole of December. I wish I moved back to the drier and home county of Sussex many years ago, before I reaoized my arthritis had got so bad, I'm nearly houeband. I put this down the damp area of Lancashire. I never had arthritis while I lived in Sussex. In fact, my parents, my relations now all gone, never had arthritis. None in my family ever had it. And my father was still walking normally up to his death at 73 from a heart condition. There is plenty of action across the pond, but in Europe, we can't really say we have had a winter at all. In fact spring bulbs in our court tubs are already sprouting tips 2 Months before they should. With Russian incursions now a thing of the past as siberian land masses heat up due to forest fires past, the melting perma frost lakes leaking methane, all adds up to the loss of the Beast from the East which was normal for decades and gave us the winter of 63 among others. I have seen no pointers from anywhere of any real cold 4 to 5 week period of ice and snow nationwide.. The planet is dying because of higher temps. Hibernating insects and mammals, and tortoises are unable to sleep. Making them very weak, without food, before they go back into hibernation. Insect decline even in my area in Lancashire was alarming, not even any wasps, no bees, butterfly's or our usual spring birds arrived. Like house Martins swallow and chiff chaffs. 5here has been to much urbanisation outside our court, a green land with 15 high trees in it was partly cut down for a huge junction that includes a concrete cycleway, they dug up the course of the path that includes 5000 daffodils and crocuses. The more they take way green and trees the faster the local warming and loss of habitat gets to a tipping point where species are going under unabated just like in Netflix "don't look up", which was a eye-opener of what climate scientists say they are up against every day. I know a lot of you come here to share charts and occlusion and more. But to be honest we need to forget these small matters and work towards holding big companies and countries that are in denial, to be educated. The tornados in kentucky actually outdid the number of CGI Tornados seen in the Sci film of 2004 Day after tomorrow by 30 to only six seen in the film... Well depressing winter, fog rain and warm conditions makes this the third winter in a row never saw one flake of snow in Wigan/Liverpool/Preston area. Newspapers screaming headlines about snow only to read further they just mean Northern Scotland only