Battleground Snow

andymusic Poor winter overall, but still wouldn't turn my nose up at this.

You know this will happen when it's too late, Greenland almost useless for snow in march, needs scandi with a east or south east draw from the continent for low dew points.

Afternoon all, Haven't posted for a while due to work, and other commitments. I see a small window of wintery opportunity from the 21st - 27th via a Atlantic ridge, possibly making it temporarily into Greenland. It's a shame we couldn't quite get enough amplitude on the mjo into 8, for something more sustained. A disappointing winter overall with how promising the teleconnections were looking. Weakening Nino, east qbo etc, but we still had some great debates and analysis from the majority of posters. A March wildcard with the potential SSW, but very uncertain how this will transpire at lower levels at this stage.

The mjo going "backwards" really hasn't helped the chance of high lat blocking in mid February, We really need it in 8, gfs and cfs just about do it later on in the month, (ecm hasn't updated today) but I wouldn't hold my breath about it making it, Relying on a ssw to deliver is just pot luck, on how the deck falls after the event happens. To add insult to injury, the snow for tomorrow has shifted 50 miles north on the overnight runs. I live in-between the a45 and M6 boxes on the map. Even as one of the most optimistic coldies, this winter is wearing me down.

Arome 12z, defo slight shift south on all the models today, just about time for another 50 mile shunt south by t0

Ali1977 12z arpege London may even seen some falls before it turns to rain at this rate Edit: added icon, note this is falling and not actual.

sheikhy Those warnings will need readding if the rest of the 12z follow suit. Just a shame it won't hang around for long

Lukesluckybunch 40 mile shift south with the zero isotherm line at 39 hours, pretty significant at that range

06z ECM with a 20 mile shift south for Thursday Every little helps Added it here @sheikhy

sheikhy Yep, classic met office curse of moving a warning that. I see a small window from 6am - 11 am for accumulations for our region (with some elevation)

Wow arpege much further south than the gfs. Whether it settles or not is another story, but will be nice to see falling snow here at least. @sheikhy

Still a big difference in where the snow boundary sets up looking at ECM v gfs for Thursday. Also the low blowing up less at 90, models really struggling to resolve this situation at such a short timescale

Mcconnor8 Looks like we are honing in on the final solution with the north midlands being in the prime spot. Maybe take the ecm/ukmo/arpege blend at 72 hours

50 mile shift South on the icon compared to the 06z

Johnp Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting much even here at 180m But someone is going to get hit bad, and even 2cm can be disruptive to drivers that are not used to it. Arpege nearer ukmo than gfs

Drifter You conveniently left out the 10-20cm above 400 meters part, not everyone lives at sea level. The evaporative cooling element will likely cause the biggest issue, heavy wet snow for hours, even if it doesn't stick around too long after the initial fall.

sheikhy Met office gone very early on a warning, sounds like they expect something quite disruptive. Gfs does like to blow up lows in the Atlantic, it's probably it's biggest weakness. Arpege out in 15 mins.....

nick sussex One is going to have blink by the 12z runs, We will be down to 78 hours by then, extreme difference at short range.

For what it's worth, 18z gem has adjusted south at 84 and 18z ukmo looks very similar to it's 12z position at 66

Just the 150 mile difference on the arpege and gfs at 102 hours. Those of us that have been around for many years, know that the gfs 18z run is not going to happen, the way the low just sits there for days.

Huge spread (especially for eps) for the 9th and 10th Central England

Ali1977 even they might be okay with dew points in from the east wind. Those ukmo snow charts will be fun in an hour or so

Lukesluckybunch Cold enough for even the south coast haha. That ecm this morning really was a wtf moment, rare these days we get such at big shift at day 4/5.

Decent shift south so far, interesting to see ukmo in a minute.

Cloud 10 Haha, somewhere is going to get a 20cm dump in the sweet spot ,but that could be anywhere from Scotland to Oxford at the moment. The clash of the 2 air masses will really pep up the precipitation.