Elfyn Jones

This looks like the end of weather as we know it. All I can say is model this

This is a 'Model Output Discussion' thread not a 'Guess it's going to be Mediocre' one. For my money there is clear movement ( in the models that is) towards Galloping Polar Bears with pointy nosed Arctic Foxes on their shoulders territory. Not that I'm biased or anything.

The time scales still allow the possibility for March to come in like a Polar Bear this year. "towards mid March'" could just as probably be " early March". The name of the game must be Hunting for Cold not Wishing for Mild otherwise we might as well pack up and go home.

Thank you S.S.; memories of Old Moore's Almanack came flooding back then. I'll go for the Ides of March ( Wednesday 15 March).

February is only different to my mind and memory ( which has a longer reach than I would wish it to have) in as much that it used to be snowy and now it's just dreary. The thread starts with the observation that February used to be " the dryest of the winter months" but weather lore names it " Fill dyke February". I'm not quite sure how we square that contradiction!

If it was this article on the Beaufort Gyre you refer to you are quite right; it's fascinating. It could well be that 'The Hunt For Cold' is more meaningfully focused on the reversal event herelded here. I feel our experience of warming winters over the last 20 years or so points to a big change such as this as a prerequisite before we can have reliable snow events in these Islands again. How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe E360.YALE.EDU The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold...