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Indeed, the EC not budging on its elimination of winter. This winter I’ve taken to following the UKMO first and foremost and I reckon it’s been pretty solid in pointing the direction albeit only at the T144-168 timeframe it offers. GFS has done its thing of showing trends in FI, sometimes a yes and sometimes a no but then that’s not surprising. ECM seems to have done a lot of following - picking up trends only when they have been shown by the others. Of course this could be my imagination but I thought I’d mention It.. So I’m hopeful that the EC diet is ‘behind the curve’ in pointing the way to a colder Feb.....

MetO and GEM both keep with cold and have high pressure over the UK at T168. MetO has been pretty solid with the development of this cold spell and it’s the first place I look now before I think changes are going to occur.

Light snow here too - pretty unexpected but good to see!

I’ll go with @frosty ground on this one!

Well we could say it’s gone wrong now -save all the waiting Sorry to be a bit flippant but we all have the same charts to look at. I expect the same discussions happen in the MetO so no wonder they keep their powder dry before making statements about any extreme weather.

Except the UK sinking high hasn’t verified yet..... Lessons.

Depends whereabouts in Siberia you are looking…

The world is indeed our lobster....

Your location looks similar to mine for ‘proper frosts’ which one could say was an air frost. They’re very rare for me before mid November - most years it’s towards the end of November. That said, this weekend looks primed although being only five miles from the coast and not in a frost hollow, I still may only get ground frost.

Not sure any model is reliable at 240 hours. GFS can be very good at picking up trends a long way out, ECM better at the 6-10 day range and hopefully this evenings run will continue to develop HP influence over the UK. Where it sits is another matter...

The ‘airmass’, (presumably 850hpa temps) will be much colder than average as currently modelled on the ensembles charts. Whether that translates to lower/higher than average 2m temperatures is a rather different matter and will not become clearer until nearer the time or sometimes on the day/night itself.

I’m not sure what you’re expecting for the middle of October...Snow drifts and ice days? Below average temps and frosts look likely.

I’m five miles from the coast in Somerset (100m ASL) and had snow in December that lasted a week so if the charts are similar to then, that’s perfect!!

But it’s not wrong yet? And the others aren’t right yet either.....

15C in the Scillies and snow in Shetland on Xmas day is a reasonable double this year......