Thinon

Correct otherwise the whole southern half of the country would be facing widespread destruction!

Clearly, confidence of exceptionally strong gusts is less than 80%. I mean, an amber warning is still a pretty firm heads up.

That is a fantastic medium term update from the Met Office. Dry and sunny in the south with above average temps. OFF goes the heating, ON goes the bbq ????

Hopefully today's update will remove all references to cold and snow, and be replaced with more exciting words such as "warm", "dry", "sunny", and "barbecue"

Wow! Unbelievable difference between NW and SE London. Everything is absolutely frozen solid here, been snowing lightly all day, every flake sticking to every surface. A thaw feels a million miles away. I guess you win some, you lose some.

Today's Met Office's text forecast for the SE was a snow lover's dream. "Heavy and widespread snow", "drifting", "bitter easterly wind", "ice on untreated surfaces". Warnings in place across the region. Well there is barely 3 hours left until "today" becomes "tonight" and the reality for most of us has been a million miles from the expectation. I'm not calling it a complete bust just yet, but it's easy to understand why so many people are upset.

Don't hold your breath. Just had an hour of heavy snow here and nothing settled on pavements

Pretty much bang on in the south though

Which 12z / 18z precip chart is the most accurate so far based on the current radar? Aperge/UKV/icon?

And some people were expecting red warnings

Precip looks massively overblown on the +24hr radar, but we shall see!

The transisition from rain to snow is underway in the Netherlands currently

I cannot see a red warning being issued for this event, as the likelihood won't be high enough until it pretty much arrives. Even then, some areas in the zone will see a lot of snow whilst others with have relatively little, they won't apply a red warning unless 99% certainty and widespread within the said zone.

The +24hr radar does look hugely overblown when you compare it to the T-1hr or even +3hr radar. It's very low res

Yes this is exactly why the BBC and MetO still emphasize "uncertainty" over the snow accumulations. And the severe weather warnings are based almost solely on the potential "impact" rather than "likelihood", as per the MetO's impact matrix. That organised system may not reach land at all, and this certainly seems to be a growing trend. But things can, and probably will, change