Thinon
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Thinon replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Correct otherwise the whole southern half of the country would be facing widespread destruction! -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Thinon replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Clearly, confidence of exceptionally strong gusts is less than 80%. I mean, an amber warning is still a pretty firm heads up. -
That is a fantastic medium term update from the Met Office. Dry and sunny in the south with above average temps. OFF goes the heating, ON goes the bbq ????
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Hopefully today's update will remove all references to cold and snow, and be replaced with more exciting words such as "warm", "dry", "sunny", and "barbecue"
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Today's Met Office's text forecast for the SE was a snow lover's dream. "Heavy and widespread snow", "drifting", "bitter easterly wind", "ice on untreated surfaces". Warnings in place across the region. Well there is barely 3 hours left until "today" becomes "tonight" and the reality for most of us has been a million miles from the expectation. I'm not calling it a complete bust just yet, but it's easy to understand why so many people are upset. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Don't hold your breath. Just had an hour of heavy snow here and nothing settled on pavements -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Pretty much bang on in the south though -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Which 12z / 18z precip chart is the most accurate so far based on the current radar? Aperge/UKV/icon? -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
And some people were expecting red warnings -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Precip looks massively overblown on the +24hr radar, but we shall see! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
I cannot see a red warning being issued for this event, as the likelihood won't be high enough until it pretty much arrives. Even then, some areas in the zone will see a lot of snow whilst others with have relatively little, they won't apply a red warning unless 99% certainty and widespread within the said zone. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
The +24hr radar does look hugely overblown when you compare it to the T-1hr or even +3hr radar. It's very low res -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Yes this is exactly why the BBC and MetO still emphasize "uncertainty" over the snow accumulations. And the severe weather warnings are based almost solely on the potential "impact" rather than "likelihood", as per the MetO's impact matrix. That organised system may not reach land at all, and this certainly seems to be a growing trend. But things can, and probably will, change -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Disappointing here in BR7. Light to moderate snow for over an hour, but not enough intensity for any significant accumulation so far. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
All of the frost just melted here within the space of 5 minutes. Snow is due to start any minute.. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trouble with these charts is they don't take into account any probable interim thawing or the negative impact on accumulations during rain to snow (or snow to rain) events. These are best taken with a pinch of salt, even at this relatively close range. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Exactly this. People only like what they want to hear. There is no voice of reason in the model thread. It just results in needlessly frequent disappointment! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Yes, I've been trying to explain this over the last week or so. 850s may seem low enough on paper but they are simply nowhere near cold enough to negate the surface level warming over the North Sea. But it seems people would rather listen to the optimists and get their false hopes up, and then moan when there's no mini Ice Age. I see the BBC are forecasting 10C for London next week. The British winter has no shame. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Thinon replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We must take into account the warming of the surface easterly flow over the North sea. None of the medium term charts quantify this so I would take seemingly low 850s with a pinch of salt. -
I agree but the reason is that the Easterly flow is warming over the North Sea. A northerly flow is currently better for cold temps but not so good for ppn. We are stuck between a rock and a hard place
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Yes and many amateur forecasters often overlook the fact that the easterly air flow will likely warm up at the surface as it crosses the North Sea before reaching the UK despite the uppers seeming to be low enough, hence the Meto going with the rather underwhelming but sadly very justified marginal outlook
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards
Thinon replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional