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Tom Clarke

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Everything posted by Tom Clarke

  1. Tom Clarke
    A warm front is moving in from the West bringing rain next Friday, shown on both the ECM and GFS.
  2. Tom Clarke
    A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.
  3. Tom Clarke
    Would be most unusual for a northerly flow to sustain for as long as shown on the GFS or the trough to the East to be that far South. Another concern is that the Canadian low could quickly collapse the block.
  4. Tom Clarke
    The uppers could be toned down nearer the time (if this happens at all) and this would be 2 weeks earlier than the 81 spell as well as the fact that seas are now anomalously warm.
  5. Tom Clarke
    Yes a poor start to the day and difficult to say which way the UKMO would go from the day 6.
  6. Tom Clarke
    The Means won't reflect that at this range.
  7. Tom Clarke
    Just have - see above. The CP forecast was for early possible cold shots, this winter is about early goals, we will be lucky to get out of our half later on !
  8. Tom Clarke
    Yes I did watch it - it's gone wrong in the 8-10 day timeframe which is stretching the limit of credibility anyway, just because it gets better after, deep into the unreliable, still means that the position is worse than this time last night.
  9. Tom Clarke
    Very disappointing as others have said, this could be the only shot of a Greenland High all season and it looks like it's going wrong for us.
  10. Tom Clarke
    Yes a big backward step this morning - UKMO looks like it wouldn't even develop a Greenland High. From experience once things have started to go wrong, then there isn't usually a route back.
  11. Tom Clarke
    If Boris has said that, then I would expect the reverse to happen.
  12. Tom Clarke
    There will only be so many bites of the cherry with a set-up like this I think and when the chances are gone, we know how poor the outlook is for cold fans for Jan & Feb.
  13. Tom Clarke
    This isn't what is being suggested by the METO CP forecast or the other forecasts I've read on the internet, which to differing degrees say that it's early cold and a strong vortex for Jan & Feb - hence the very mild possibility being mooted.
  14. Tom Clarke
    Looks like again the overriding theme is high pressure to the South, the mild outlook continues.
  15. Tom Clarke
    Yes mild and pretty benign - nothing to suggest the colder outlook being touted by the Met Office.
  16. Tom Clarke
    I think Nov 2015 was pretty mild and so were the following months. The worry for winter weather fans is that the indications were for the early part of the winter to have the best potential, with Jan/Feb potentially exceptionally mild. The possibility is there that if the remainder of Nov is mild which now looks very likely and Dec follows on, we will see records broken.
  17. Tom Clarke
    Interesting and from my limited understanding is similar to what the CP forecast is, though probably the Met are not seeing the possibility of the Strato warming hence the very mild possibilities for Jan & Feb.
  18. Tom Clarke
    Yes though funnily enough my father grew up in Macc, and he remembers virtually no snow during the famous 63 winter.
  19. Tom Clarke
    Yes it was certainly cold, though I would say Crewe is the most snowless place I've lived.
  20. Tom Clarke
    I was living near Crewe in 2010 and certainly saw nothing like that.
  21. Tom Clarke
    This is interesting, so when we used to have much colder winter spells - 70s,80s, were they result of these SSWs - which I understand to be fairly rare ?
  22. Tom Clarke
    Fair enough, we as planners have been privy to the Dec-Jan-Feb outlook and that is what I was referring to.
  23. Tom Clarke
    The 30 dayer only covers up until late November - which is not winter. Given their record, I would back the forecast they have provided as it is apparently supported by other organisations - notably the Iberian model which is highly respected and (apparently) proved to be right a few years ago when others were going for a wet Iberian winter.
  24. Tom Clarke
    Yes, and I just think that for them to commit , in the way they have for the more detailed analysis, for the very mild potential later on, then it is likely to be significant - at least in terms of confidence of pattern if nothing else. Last winter Stratospheric developments were mentioned as a possible curveball (what I understand from reading the forum you call SSWs) but this time it was not mooted.
  25. Tom Clarke
    Yes but they are very highly respected and what we were presented with is also supported by European agencies - perhaps quite a critical drought situation for SW Europe come the end of the winter.
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