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WeatherArc

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WeatherArc last won the day on April 22

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    Thunderstorms, Supercells, Tornadoes, Hurricanes and Fire Weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in

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  1. WeatherArc
    Couldn't get photos unfortunately but had a cracking early morning thunderstorm over in Michigan, almost constant deep thunder. I believe the storm was the one that produced a few sig tors in Nebraska before merging into a large overnight MCS.
  2. WeatherArc
    I've been away in the US for a few days, looks like a decent convective event? Saw a few people forecasting supercells with sig hail a few days before but have seen a few saying it was bust so trying to figure out what happened
  3. WeatherArc
    What a beaut in Nebraska!!! Last minute tor of the year contender??
  4. WeatherArc
    Very much extremely cherry picking/very unlikely but just saw this on twitter, pretty insane gfs ensemble member, very surprised a model is even playing around with this kind of heat. Reminds me of 2022 when 1-2 ensemble members started doing the same thing for July 19th, very very unlikely at the stage but raises eyebrows that models are playing around with this kind of heat as we go into prime summer.
  5. WeatherArc
    18z GFS in and the wind profiles for Friday continues to get my attention, if we can tap into the big instability/cape (2,000-3,500+) across the channel then it could be a big day. A few thermodynamic issues that may hinder the potential ceiling however if they are ironed out clear potential for severe thunderstorms. Gonna be a fun few days of model watching! Im defo seeing the potential for supercells with such high bulk shear across the west (my general rule is anything 35+ knots is good) these could potentially be photogenic/low precip? as 0-6/0-8 km winds stronger than 40 knots. The hodograph has nice curvature in the low levels that could support tornadoes, especially when combined with 0-3km lapse rates of 7.6c/km.
  6. WeatherArc
    Friday 12z GFS paints potential for a few severe thunderstorms, sbcape in the 1,500+ range with dewpoints in the upper teens pushing into the 20s. With bulk shear values across most of the country over 35, into the 40 knot range we could be looking at the potential for supercells, Effective Helicity profiles unusually high for uk events at 2.5+ Sounding from just South West from Hereford, with 297 effective SRH i could defo see the potential for a few tornadoes if the 12z comes off. Not often you see a hodograph like that in the Uk.
  7. WeatherArc
    Looks like California might be getting underway soon as well, even if this heatwave doesn't start fires its gonna nosedive fuel moisture levels right at the start of fire season.
  8. WeatherArc
    Here comes summer
  9. WeatherArc
    Looks like fire season has arrived early in Canada, multiple fires in the Boreal forests of northern Alberta and Manitoba. Latest fire danger/weather indexes Large portions of western Canada are experiencing a pretty severe drought this combined with temperatures into the low 30s has led to extreme fire behaviour, could be another long season ahead. Conditions today have allowed for multiple Pyrocumulus clouds to form,
  10. WeatherArc
    Wow, just seen the 12z Euro. Something that stands out is that it doesn't look to be a dry airmass, with dewpoints into the low to mid twenties it would feel quite oppressive. High Temps/dewpoints combined with steep mid level lapse rates=lots of instability, with mucape into the 4,000 range we would be talking about explosive storm development with lots of lightning. Im a little sceptical at the moment but it does look like there could be some interesting weather ahead, especially if the African heat pump is turned on this early in summer. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/101328-heading-towards-and-into-may-forecast-and-model-discussion-commentary/?do=findComment&comment=5281679
  11. WeatherArc
    Wow, just seen the 12z Euro. Something that stands out is that it doesn't look to be a dry airmass, with dewpoints into the low to mid twenties it would feel quite oppressive. High Temps/dewpoints combined with steep mid level lapse rates=lots of instability, with mucape into the 4,000 range we would be talking about explosive storm development with lots of lightning. Im a little sceptical at the moment but it does look like there could be some interesting weather ahead, especially if the African heat pump is turned on this early in summer.
  12. WeatherArc
    This is just the tornado season that just wont stop, early June is looking very eye catching with a significant trough. You don't often see shear this strong this time of year! Looks like our main target states will be the northern plains, Nebraska and south/north Dakotas. Beautiful states for chasing with wide open plains stretching for miles. Theres already talk about this trough looking a lot like the one behind the 2003 June 21st South Dakota outbreak, that spawned the Manchester EF4.
  13. WeatherArc
    Fries in Bag At least Colorado delivered last night
  14. WeatherArc
    Thought theyd pull the trigger, SPC upgrades central Oklahoma to a level 3/5 Enhanced risk driven by a 10% non hatched tornado risk over Oklahoma City and a 30%# risk of significant hail. Slightly surprised about no hatched tornado region but may be down to confidence. Intense tornadoes are possible today around the OKC Metro, just a matter of if storms can sustain. WOW Colorado last night!!
  15. WeatherArc
    Hmmmm, central Oklahoma could be interesting tonight
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