abruzzi spur

I'm writing a thesis on confirmation bias and the model thread is the greatest source of material I have ever found.

Just popped back in here as part of my max of twice a day checks on stuff that isn't from properly authenticated news sites. Lots of end of days posts still going on. It's a serious situation but I really think we can all help each other. If you feel the overwhelming need to keep reading social media and posting and reposting stuff then maybe decide to take a break, go for a walk, bake a cake, teach yourself how to make bread, stuff that will give you comfort and a bit of control of your life. It's tough, but we aren't being bombed each night. We aren't being poisoned by radiation. This isn't smallpox, nor is it Ebola. Keep up your defiance, be spirited, help your vulnerable friends, family and neighbours. Hold on to a sense of perspective and if that means turning off the news then just press that button. Life is always tricky, it's just that at the moment it's more so.

Righty ho.

This is excellent: https://twitter.com/lstedmanbryce/status/1238906195651559424?s=21

Hi. I'm sorry if it came across as a 'don't panic' post. That wasn't my intention at all. Having suffered from anxiety and depression and on a few occasions been away from work as a result I'm conscious of how stuff you can't control can overwhelm. I am worried about where we are, but for me checking trusted news sources from time to time and avoiding bombardment on the Internet is the way to go. All the best.

Well I'm definitely following the WHO advice to check for updates once or at most twice a day and only from trusted sources. Just on a flick through here there's so much anxiety and distress. It's a difficult situation for sure but, please, following every post, catastrophising and looking for real or imagined mistakes from all the world leading experts will make you ill and, annoyingly, less able to fight off this thing. How many of us a few weeks back knew anything about epidemiology, about the progress of viruses, about herd immunity? Suddenly there are bedroom experts everywhere. So many shout 'do something' but won't follow the science in deciding what that 'something' should be, as long as it's 'something'. Do your bit for relatives, friends, neighbours. Don't hide in your bunker unless indicated, be sensible about the risk, keep yourselves happy; if you're stuck inside try film, music, art, literature, cooking, exercise, not necessarily social media and 24hr news channels. Just a thought anyway.

Asahi

Well what I posted wasn't for any particular individual. It was in response to a sense I had that some here are very anxious and I thought that the link I provided might be helpful. Glad you're tickety boo though.

Please folks think about taking a break. I've just popped back in and it must be exhausting for the people on here reading and posting so often. The constant stress generated will make you less able to cope with the challenges ahead. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

With no apologies, I'm putting this up again. Very helpful, particularly point 3: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

Have you got a link to substantiate that please as I'd like to understand it a bit better.

Not for me. I've just not looked at my numbers for 2 weeks. My approach is to sit tight rather than try to catch a falling knife.

He’s impressive. Was very good under tight questioning by Justin Webb on the Today programme on Radio 4.

Thanks @swebby. I've posted it twice now in the last couple of days as I thought it was extremely helpful and so far only a couple of posters have made any comment amidst the constant churn of incoming posts. Which may in itself be an indication that the advice really is needed......

There's an understandable amount of anxiety and stress around at the moment related to CV, not least in here where there are 10s of posts an hour, some based on more science and expert evidence than others. It's really worth taking time out as a few have said. Latest WHO guidance on mental health during this situation (note in particular point 3). https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

Worth keeping this in mind, point 3 in particular: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

Newsnight once again excellent tonight on this. They've been very good for weeks but are really raising their game. Intelligent questions and highly impressive and knowledgeable guests. I really recommend it at the moment.

It's an imagination of what someone might have posted on a primitive social media at the time of the Black Death that you mentioned.

Verily sires, being of fever'd brow I today took to visiting Ye Olde Shoppe and the foul crone at the counter said unto me that not half a day previous a mobbe of villeins had descended on her abode and swept the shelves of all nettle gel and extra thicke parchment for rendering a clean fundament. I shall provide a picture on completion of my humble scribble. Truely we are bereft.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/hipster-claiming-to-have-covid-18-20200309194292

This is all very interesting. In South Korea there is a lot more testing going on, way in excess of anywhere else. In that country the CFR is 0.7%, way lower than elsewhere. This suggests to me that in countries where the CFR is much higher they aren't picking up the minor cases as they aren't being reported let alone tested. Potentially reassuring. https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1235331199805149185?s=21

Agreed Nick. I'm not trivialising but sometimes, I hope, a bit of humour can see us through all sorts of darkness.

Reservation of beds could be linked to towel ownership rates per person: Germany 12 Italy 6 France 5 UK 2

That's not the UK as it lists no cases in Wales, Scotland or NI. It's England. It also totals only 86. Apart from that, looks spot on!

Brain cells? Ha ha. See you back on JPW Daniel.