CoventryWeather

Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning. Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores. Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.

Don't think it's as cold outside as previous days. Output looks mediocre. Any high pressure seems short lived but settles nicely over Griceland. To anyone else going on holiday/storm chasing, have a nice time.. bring back the warm dry weather when you come back!

Appalling day. I find these days are worse when you are full of cold. Rain, grey skies.. 6 degrees in late April. That's high pressure apparently

This feels more like a mid autumnal day. Grey skies, constant light rain and drizzle. Atleast there's no fog or mist/drizzle, that would have been absolutely dreadful. Does seem to be a trend to something warmer into May but whether that comes with something drier is a ?.

ANYWEATHER the trend today is to have that feature significantly weaker and further west and south. Could be a bit of a plume event on the eastern flank if it came off.

Always the day 10 ECM charts!! At least the clusters and itself are being consistent last few days with that pattern.

Alderc 2.0 I doubt this pattern will last much longer, perhaps late April early May we will see a change to heights to our south or over us. Like others have mentioned May seems to have a low pressure anomaly to our south west and heights over us/Europe. That's expected most of summer.

I'd take the next few days, drier. Shame it's fresh but I'd rather have this than rain all day. Think the warm dry weather we are all after will be early to mid may.. and seems to fit the LRFs nicely for the summer. Wonder if we will see a summer with an Azores Low anomaly again?

Somehow staying dry here, although had some drizzle about 10 minutes ago from a decaying anvil. Looking to the north it seems we are staying dry which is a bonus. You can faintly see the Leicester storm in the bottom right corner.

Stunning cloudscapes today. Huge anvil to my northwest, I assume it's the Wolves or Stafford Cell.

Seen several reports of a tornado this morning near Stoke on Trent. Tweet about it from Met4cast

And the Birmingham, Stratford line has produced lightning over Northamptonshire - you're welcome! Interesting day coming up. Hopefully some decent cloudscapes.

Wade mainly towards coast's I'd say early on and sporadic lightning elsewhere, but the risk during the afternoon seems to suggest Lincolnshire and East Anglia. They do tend to do well in NWerly airmass. Sunshine and hail/rain showers for the majority though.

Not a bad day here, hazy sunshine, quite a bit of high cloud. Better than previous months, and mild too. Happily take next week too, should be plenty of sunshine in-between the showers.

Not a particularly strong supercell in terms of lightning if that was the case. The line west of Eastbourne is interesting but whether it does anything is another question.

Monday Evening catching my eye a touch. South east possibly for a weakish plume event. Limited CAPE values however for the majority but closer to the continent seems like there's a significant amount there.

Eagle Eye Just letting people know in Wales - I'm not expecting anything here this far inland

Showing some strikes just west of Bude. Seems like a squall line is developing from Devon to Wales, mainly over the sea atm.

Thanks, weren't expecting any risks, thought it was a fairly messy area of rainfall in Wales. I've got to do a set of outdoor photos this evening/night so would prefer no showers or storms! Although distant lightning I wouldn't mind!

Think the broad area of travel is: - Weak High mid to late next week - High retrogression to Mid Atlantic - dry northerly to NWerly, showers inland from surface heating. - High most likely to end up over the UK/NW Europe just after mid month.. Pretty decent agreement up to day 10, bar the odd timings of warm and cold fronts etc. Seems a mixed April could be on the cards.

Rain All Night I'm just looking and giving insights into what models are showing. Not an expert but I'd suspect the high to continue to control the weather until months end - likely it will give brief NW or N winds at times. Can't see the wet weather lasting summer.

The GFS continues to move towards the Euros for a drier pattern next week. The ECM clusters pretty good agreement on this - no GFS cluster on this mornings. The extended shows the high moving either NW or south, but plenty of uncertainty. Would have thought the drier pattern would stick for the rest of the month and perhaps the summer.

Looks potent - cooling aloft helping.

Trend continues to show us drying up - waiting for the latest ECM, but GEM, ICON and UKMO all interested in a drier pattern by mid next week. GFS is alone in keeping a much wetter pattern although moved slightly towards the others on its latest run. Let's hope it sticks.. and it lasts for a while too!

Can see 3 huge anvils to my north - one with what seems to appear to be overshooting somewhat (might be wrong). Likely the Peak District batch, Nottingham cells and the remnants of the Leicester showers.