Mcconnor8

The pun run going for the cold northerly at day 9 post Easter.

GFS 18z looks quite nasty with a pretty deep low at 5 days out, sub 955mb, will be interesting to see if the GFS or ECM is on the right track here as they have very different solutions at a relatively short time frame.

ANYWEATHER it may feel like that but on verification stats for the Northern Hemisphere the ECM has still been on top out of all the models more often than not in the last year.

Neilsouth Nope, a low pressure fest on both of them for the next 7-10 days unfortunately, I'm off to Mallorca for a few days at the weekend to get some needed sun and thankfully looks like it will tap into some Southern Europe warmth while I'm there which is a bonus. Still doesn't really look like any impact from the SSW in the modelling at the moment either.

WINTRY WALES There are heat record being smashed worldwide though, Northern Africa currently pulverising lots of records, but yes Western Europe particularly vulnerable I think to climate change as highlighted by the comparisons in snowfall during Winter from pre 1980 compared to since which is quite a huge drop.

I think it is more down to the higher SSTs in the Atlantic hampering the building of high pressure in the specific areas that we need it to get proper cold into this country, which is climate change driven. We are simply more susceptible to the effects of Climate Change than many other areas of the world due to our location. I don't see how there could be any correlation between Nuclear testing and the weather as forces in play weather wise are far greater than could be influenced by that.

lassie23 I think historically a summer that takes place during the transition to La Nina from an El Nino is wetter than average, which is what is expected currently, but I really hope we do get that dry summer as the rain really has been relentless for 8 months now.

Very uninspiring ECM at day 7, looks worse than the GFS and other models cold wise and the GFS 12z ensemble also seems to have downgraded somewhat 850s wise for the end of next week onwards albeit the OP and Control still look okay.

Met4Cast Thats the GEM not GEFS ensemble, GEFS doesn't look too different from earlier runs to me.

chrisnoy Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) | Causes, Effects, & Strategies WWW.CARBONCOLLECTIVE.CO This article introduces anthropogenic global warming - what causes it, how we're causing it, and why it's important to mitigate climate change.

chrisnoy https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php - This is the ECM 06z run to 90 hours, comes out around 1Pm each day https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php - This is the Control run which goes to T+144 and comes out about an hour later.

feb1991blizzard Cold uppers never even reached the UK lol

MattStoke I've been monitoring the models today and it has been a surprisingly large shift North across all of them given it is just 24 hours away, always typical that these shifts go in the wrong direction.

sheikhy The warm front looks quite a bit further north on the UKV 12z than the 06z judging by these temperatures on Thursday morning I think.

Ali1977 Yeah GFS on the 18z was the furthest North of any run today so think we will see the Arpege move towards the other models over the next few runs. UKMO 18z also shifted North a tiny bit.