Kieran1960
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Everything posted by Kieran1960
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kieran1960 replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My point is -8 in march isn’t enough in the south for anything realistic! You would need -10 above that and it becomes marginal during the day! Hence why that snow risk could end up being a slush fest! I was commenting on the rain and milder air coming in during the weekend -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No don’t need to post rainfall depth charts either! My point is there is clearly a signal for things to turn wet from the Atlantic through next weekend onwards and I was pointing out this could potentially be a wet march! And we know that snow depth charts never come true, there are many factors for accumulating snow and in the south through next week, it’s still very marginal! Could end up with no snow at all!!!! In fact here on the coast I’m forecast light rain and some sleet! I’m just saying that the cold snap is brief and does come to and end and does seem to wake the Atlantic up -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kieran1960 replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If your up north on a hill potentially, but it does look a lot milder in the south from the weekend, also daytime temps even next week are not the best for any snow to hang around away from higher ground in the south! I’m just being realistic btw -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s very unlikely to happen, we all know how useless snow depth charts are don’t know why people post them! I’m more focused on those lows and how wet it could potentially become -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
March could potential be a wet month, that Atlantic really does seem to wake up towards the end of the week! Does look to turn milder from the weekend in the south at least! But I do think we will get a lot of rain associated with it -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM really shows a brief cold snap then milder -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not for the south though midlands northwards yes, but as I’ve been trying to highlight those along southern counties are likely to have a week of cold rain and sleet -
Tbh it will just be the windchill temps will feel colder but after all the grey cloud this week especially here on the Essex coast and that biting north easterly wind, I can’t see next week feeling any worse tbh if we get more in the way of sun then it might actually feel warmer out of the wind
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I absolutely hate the idea of any snow! Luckily being in the south and on the coast with day temps around 6 or 7 it’s very unlikely to be around for long, even if it does snow! Would imagine more of a slush fest, which quite frankly can’t stand! forecast sunshine and light winds next weds and temps of 7 so hopefully won’t feel too awful
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shame it didn’t come earlier in winter tbh, temps next week still forcast 5 to 7 in the south, the snow would hang around for long during the day! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It might feel cold but with those temps during the day any snow that’s in the south will melt very quickly especially in a strengthening sun, tbh if we do get some sunshine it will probably feel warmer than it did this week stuck under the cloud -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs showing temps 5 to 7 for next week in the south really don’t get the excitement hardly Ice and snow days bit of sleet showers -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They don’t really show anything colder than what we have now! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Kieran1960 replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Plus alongside the milder trends being shown met office is going for a drier and warmer spring likely hood -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kieran1960 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Am certainly pleased to check the models this morning and find that more agreement for milder options are on the table, as I said a few days ago, milder weather is increasingly likely -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kieran1960 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Loving the warmer end to the gfs run! Hoping that it does continue a milder trend, who needs cold anyway! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kieran1960 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Again looking through the gfs run and other models any deep cold is not appearing, and the colder weather later this week is clearly toned down a lot, gfs seems to want to bring mild air in still fairly dry too! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Kieran1960 replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at ensembles for London from the gfs more of them are increasingly showing temps average to above! Lovely stuff -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kieran1960 replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking through the models it seems winter may end quietly the sun is gaining strength and the high pressure sat over us is very slow to move anywhere aka gfs run, however it will start feeling like spring soon, can feel some warmth in the sun today! The final few weeks of winter will soon be over -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Kieran1960 replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Very much looking forward to spring, had a great snow event down here in the south east so now very much ready for the spring sunshine, models seem to hint a cooler period later this month, but don’t think there is a huge buzz for anything very cold like December, but would be nice to have higher pressure