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Theo

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  • Location
    Global citizen.
  • Interests
    Weather, astronomy, philosophy.
  • Weather Preferences
    Warmth. Storms.

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  1. Not in the slightest; it's the nature of any conversation that somebody will arbitrarily make the last remark. But it seems more likely that it's people who say things like "end of story" who want the last word. Anyway, enjoy your Met degree. You'll find the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting fascinating if that's part of what you study.
  2. Nope. You're simply wrong. And clearly not as familiar with the tools and methods long-range meteorologists use as you claim. Thanks for the apology, though.
  3. A response to a blunt statement like "it's all guesswork" doesn't really call for much embellishment. However, I will note that meteorologists use various tools to produce longer range forecasts, including extended-range models, global atmospheric drivers and teleconnections. At longer and longer lead times the outlook becomes more probabilistic; of course, nobody knows what's going to happen a fortnight to a month ahead, to address the second part of your statement, but with proper interpretation this aforementioned guidance can give decent ideas of trends in parameters like temperature, precipitation and wind, with various degrees of uncertainty depending on consistency and agreement.
  4. Saturday's maximum temperatures at Coleshill was 30 deg C. These meteorologists might just know what they're talking about, y'know. That whole London-Cambridge-Birmingham corridor had highs of 29-31C.
  5. While many of us enjoy temperatures of 25C (not 24) and above, it is undeniable that there are people for whom increasing warmth is a health issue. And some places are forecast to get to the upper 20s or 30C. If it's inapplicable then it's easy enough to ignore.
  6. It's only 2 days ahead, though, through to D+5. Confidence is pretty high, and it's less useful issuing a warning less than a day ahead.
  7. For info, councils and other authorities that deal with salting / road treatment receive their own detailed bespoke forecasts above and beyond Met Office warnings.
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