Sun Chaser

baddie To be fair May 2023 here had us in the low-mid 20s, this spell has been leagues below that one.

Really enjoying this spell at the moment, very like April 2021 in that skies are completely clear but temperatures are restricted to mid teens so it feels chilly sometimes. A shame it's going to be over so soon. Yesterday we recorded over 10 hours of sunshine for the first time since... June 22nd ?????????

May 2018 was amazing and thundery but May 2020 has to take it here just because of how crazy it was to see over 300 hours of sunshine in one month. Cloudless on like 2/3 of the days that month! I'd also like to mention May 2023 which down here was exceptional. Warmer than both, sunnier than 2018, and a bone dry second half in which every day hit 20c. All three had a handful of poor days in the first half but followed by 2-3 weeks of outstanding weather.

reef I imagine the temperatures will be better than the models suggest because they always underestimate. I think we'll have a May 2023 like situation (obviously cooler since it's a month earlier) but I can only hope that leads into a June 2023 like situation!

Out in the west this spell doesn't look bad at all. Good levels of sunshine, most days in the mid teens, completely dry, almost April 2021-esque. For the east though this looks like a nightmare! Days struggling to reach even 10c, yet more slate grey skies, possible showers, and windier to boot. A reversal of fortune from the first half of the month which saw the east warmer and drier than the west, although still very dull everywhere. I'm genuinely wondering if this could turn out to be one of the dullest Aprils of all time in the east seeing as most locations have only recorded 40-60 hrs of sunshine so far (in the west it will probably end up average). And given the outlook for places like east Anglia and London which is still almost entirely cloudy - what's the dullest April at Heathrow out of interest?

A month that will stick in my memory forever just because of how crazy it was! Actually the sunniest April on record here I think! It was the first month where people were going outside again after lockdown and being 16 at the time I was making the most of it no matter how cold it was. April 1st here was a continuation of the March heatwave but soon led into a cool but sunny easter. Suddenly a northerly blast on the 5th had us struggling for double figures. Memories in the first half of the easter holidays being freezing cold when outside with friends although not particularly sunny. My birthday, April 11th, saw a rare example of April snow and a heavy hail shower too. I remember going outdoor swimming in 7 degree weather that day which was definitely something. Sometime around mid month, the high pressure influencing our weather moved slightly closer to the UK, giving basically crystal clear skies for the next 12 days. The northerly winds became less strong and far fetched and this gave us some really pleasant days in the mid teens with blue skies start to finish - the 20th, 21st and 27th all topped 18c here. I remember in this period hanging out in the park with my friends for hours when I was meant to be walking back home after school, it felt more summery than a few summer months we've had since! Sadly low pressure barged its way in late on the 27th and the last few days of the month were damp and cloudy. Frustratingly our only rainfall of the month fell on the evening of the 30th - a whole 11mm as well - making this month not seem as spectacularly dry as it really was. This was a fitting way to lead into one of the most disgusting spring months of my lifetime, May 2021! I can't complain about the timing though. We had all the good weather in our last weeks of freedom, all the dross during exams then when we were let out for the summer on May 27th, the weather took a sharp upturn and led into what was a pretty decent summer here! Although it was never again quite as exceptionally sunny and dry as April was.

I believe it was present some of the time from mid May to early June last year - with the high to the west our flow was usually easterly or northeasterly. Telltale sign being that we had three weeks of unbroken sunshine while the east was generally quite dull!

Two days in a row, two sunny evenings in a row. It's felt amazing, like a part of me that's been hibernating for six months has been released. I feel the tide finally turning.

In Absence of True Seasons If mid April until December is anomalously sunny and dry, I think 2024 can still be considered a great year. Like 3% chance of that happening but it still could, like if we got a 2018 situation until July then a 2016 rest of the year. With a good summer this can still be considered a decent year, I value April - July over Jan - April tbh

This upcoming sunnier drier spell better last a while yet, we have some catching up to do. Here's the sunshine stats here for the first 3 and a half months of the year since 2018: 2018 - 293 hrs 2019 - 299 hrs 2020 - 313 hrs (this came before the sunniest May on record too) 2021 - 297 hrs 2022 - 293 hrs 2023 - 212 hrs (already dull) 2024 - 161 hrs (shocking!) * the only "recent" start to the year comparable to 2024 for dullness was 2013 which was infamously god awful, but even that managed 193 hours! No wonder it's barely felt like spring at all. If 2024 wants to be considered a good year it'll need a classic late spring and summer, otherwise another one for the bin!

I hope this month doesn't even sniff April 2011 or even 2020/2007 in the CET rankings. Most undeserving month ever. Wherever this "exceptionally mild" start to the month has hit, it hasn't been here! 17 hours of sunshine out of 12 days is not enough for this to be even considered anywhere near the same league. To think I thought May 2022 being near the top was undeserving. This is a whole new level!

TheOgre Difference being that March 2014 was genuinely lovely and very opposite of the March just gone. A lot of dry, sunny weather in 2014, with midmonth especially nice! While 2024 had nothing but 27 days of slate grey skies and torrential rain to offer, with odd springlike days scattered between.

In Absence of True Seasons Actually. At this point if we truly want to get balance after this past 18 months, we need a hot May that challenges or breaks the maximum temperature record (which is relatively not that extreme compared to other months around it), followed by a dry sunny summer (though it doesn't need to be record breakingly hot), a very sunny and anticyclonic autumn, and a winter more in the vein of 2022/23 (or 2009/10 since we are due some snow). Then a very sunny and warm March like 2012 or 2022, since we've had two of the worst in history on the trot, then a return to the dry sunny Aprils of the early 2020s

B87 Even worse here, 36.8mm of rainfall and a shocking 6.7 hours of sunshine. So glad I've been away this week as I don't think I've ever seen a statistically worse start to April here in my life, even if temperature wise it has (as ever) been average. But April still has a chance to save itself. Starting on Thursday (my birthday!) it looks predominantly dry for the foreseeable which can only be an improvement. I can see Apr 2024 ending up in the same leagues as 2023 or 2014 - a bit wetter and duller than normal but saved by some better spells too.

WYorksWeather To be honest that Newcastle mean keeps pressure above 1020 from day 9 onwards as well. I think the switch we've all been so desperately waiting for may finally be arriving

CoventryWeather Mixed is a lot better than the deluges of February and March!

Just caught up on today's GFS 06z. What a run! A strong high smack bang over the UK from day 10 right until the end. Just what we need after the wettest 18 months on record. The less said about the 12z the better

CryoraptorA303 I would be surprised if we had another hot September. However we are most definitely due a dry August and second half of the year as a whole - I'd go for drier than avg and warmer than avg September, notably dry and sunny October, and a drier than avg and cool November, followed by the driest December since 2016, also fairly cold - possibly more so than 2017 but not to the extent of 2022.

I think we deserve that after what we've been through since autumn 2022! Says a lot that it's been the wettest 18 months on record despite having two 6 week long very very dry spells in the middle.

GFS consistently showing some settled warmth and drier weather starting on April 10th! This is not a drill! We can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel, rejoice Been looking for this for the past two months and it's finally come just in time for my birthday. Appreciate it weather gods. (probably going to get a trough straight after but GFS keeps giving us highs in FI so things aren't looking as bad as they were a week ago)

GFS keeps on with this ridge to our south next week as it becomes more influential with every run. It seems there could be a way out of this rut as soon as day 7-8. Just in time for my birthday It could still be somewhat westerly (in the south at least) but ultimately it's high pressure so it would be dry and pretty warm, and with the LP to our west there's potential a day or two later for low twenties under southerly winds. Inevitably the low swings by afterwards but what's encouraging is that, for the first time in what seems like decades, GFS is repeatedly showing high pressure ridging in from the Azores in FI. The Greenland high is also completely gone by then which can only be a good thing. Don't want to say anything too early but I think there's signs of at least a less offensively wet pattern on the way! Just to add, the ensemble mean pressure has shot up to 1020 out of nowhere! A couple of days ago we were looking at 1010 all the way to the end and now we have relatively good agreement on a build of pressure from the 10th onwards. Huge progress.

Summer8906 Going off stats, the period from the 15th to the 24th was fairly damp and very dull but still warm. However from experience the final week of the month was nice and settled, sunny, mostly dry and warm (mid 20s), nothing extreme - a nice end to a great summer.

We actually beat March 2023 for rainfall here!! By an impressive 0.2mm. 146.0mm recorded last month. Great stuff 2024

CoventryWeather This ridge is our way out of this spell perhaps! ECM and GEM looking decidedly dry by day 10. First sign of anything other than a zonal trough fest on the models in weeks.

Some real good examples since this comment too! Oct 21 to Nov 21 heralding a drier period and then Feb 23 to Mar 23 which has since left us in the very wet regime we've been in since. Hopefully we get a switcharound soon.