AmericanIceman

Sometime between tomorrow morning and mid-day.

None that I know of. I've got a webcam which I could set up and stream, but I'm too lazy and I wouldn't be able to set it up anywhere to get any good shots. Actually, I know know of one site with cam's set up along the beachs of the Panhandle and Big Bend, but they only update every 10 minutes, soo. http://www.beachview.com

The closer it gets to Tallahassee the closer it gets to me. I'm 30 minutes to the Northeast of Tallahassee. w00t. =D

Is that the eye trying to take shape in this shot?

Nah, Didn't join. I'm already on sooo many forums. LoL

Dark clouds rolling into southern Georgia.

Okay, if this thing comes ashore as a min. Cat 1 hurricane what kind of winds can I exect here at my house? Here's a link to about where I live... http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=Bo...7,5.361328&om=1

Not much has changed... 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121155 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 700 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 ...ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALBERTO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$

The next update on the storm should be out in 15-20 minutes. Can't wait to see if it's strengthened any! I'm hoping for a minimal hurricane.

Where exactly is the eye. I thougth the center of the storm was to the left of the huge blob of convection?

Georgia doesn't have a shoreline on the Gulf. ;-) They've issued flood watches for the counties to my south in the Florida big bend. Expecting flooding, even with a minimal storm surge in Apalachie Bay area.

Are 19 ft waves normal for a storm this small?

Woooo! Here comes Alberto! With every advisory release, the forecast track brings the eye closer and to my area. If this things continues to get stronger me may see some gusty winds!

000 ABNT20 KNHC 092116 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECASTER AVILA

The lastest GFDL model run takes this storm to hurricane status and sends it into Taylor & Dixie county Florida. If both intensity and track hold up then I might see some pretty gusty Tropical Storm force winds at my house. I marked where I live with a little squiggly.

000 ABNT20 KNHC 091524 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$

oOoOo! This will be one for me to watch out for. If it heads for the panhandle and into Georgia, we could get a lot of rain. We need the rain though, so. Looking at the IR Loop, things do certainly look more "together". http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html The second one took quite a while to load for some reason, so I took a screen cap of it. THEN: NOW:

Welp, just checked out the GFDL model and it seems to forecast something developing in the Pacific and crosses Mexico, holding together and reforming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This could get interesting!

Hmm, One model seems to want something to form in the Carrib. sea and then sends it into the Florida panhandle and on up into Georgia. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation I'm not really up on how these models and stuff work, but what's the chance of that being correct? I live in southwestern Georgia, so this could prove interesting.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION... WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT. HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT $$ NNNN ------ What is so dreadful about a pinhole eye?

000 WTNT34 KNHC 190231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$

That photo of Hurricane Gilbert is so..so...AHH! That thing looks so freaking awesome.

Hmm, How safe is the Panhandle & Big Bend region with this one?

Still A Depression.... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161435 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005 THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT... BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.