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Michael Fishermans Friend

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Everything posted by Michael Fishermans Friend

  1. What is his forecast for the rest of the winter?, waiting for the LRF one...and then the amended version.
  2. Difficult to see us breaking out of this rut but I do expect to see a colder interlude around mid month probably dominated by high pressure so 5.5c for me please!
  3. I was thinking for some reason of Minsk being in Russia (not sure why), all the same my point for Moscow stands, hardly cold their either.
  4. Wasn't Minsk, Moscow the other day (for Xmas day) showing the barest of lying snow? looking at the above chart shouldn't that be green around those areas as well? - looking pretty poor at the moment.
  5. Yep to a degree I think your right, I've noticed this too over recent mild winters - a pattern of zonal Atlantic driven weather IS difficult to shift once set in, I can't remember too many recent winters after having continuous Atlantic stuff then to turn cold. Philip Eden went on record saying that the particularly warm SST's off the Eastern seaboard of the States aren't helping things if you wished for a cold winter in these parts and that coupled with the effects of La Nina. If nothing is showing on the models by late January I'd start to think of 'writing off' the winter as regards to hard/severe conditions, don't forget also if this weather pattern doesn't change the near continent and probably parts of Scandanavia will be snow free which will not help lets say come February if we do get some form of Scandanavia blocking and Easterlies (as per 2005) so would have to rely on an Arctic blast. Not looking good so far this winter.
  6. Isn't such a thing as 'balancing the books' in weather - but unfortunately looking at the GFS model outputs over the last month it is becoming very tedious viewing with a very positive NAO, as we've had 3 colder than average winters in a row I thought we'd be pushing it to have 4, something which I think wasn't experienced even in the 50's and 60's (I think). Fingers crossed though, we've got a lot of this winter to see out.
  7. Really? I read somewhere that the East/North Eastern States were forecast to have a severe winter - probably one of numerous forecasts.
  8. Hi Bill, well with the magnificent Volvo FM12 now out on the roads with Air suspension, double drive axle and limited slip diffierential at each wheel it's no wonder other lorries are shooting their loads then again it could be an isolated snowfall (hardly likely). As for The Sun 2012 outlook, as said just trying to get his name in lights (John Kettley that is). Happy christmasses to you!
  9. Very green United States bar Montana, Utah, Colorado etc, - Eastern seaboard experiencing very mild conditions at present, (forecast was to be for a severe winter) - time for things to change though.
  10. Yes I know, mabye after the next week or so of mild conditions - I think we'll have a positive anomoly CET wise
  11. Noticed how they talked about the huge snowfalls in the UK and North west Europe - but wasn't that in December last year, I then turned over...
  12. Fairly mild - I think Ian Brown gave a statistic the other day about few cold winter months followed after a relatively mild December (in recent times). Model watching at the moment isn't fantatstic.
  13. A complete lack of blocking so far this winter...I wonder if he is a coldie?
  14. It's more accurate as he updated it 3/4 days before the north had their first wintryish spell at the end of November, ok looks like he's going to be accurate regarding the xmas mildness but as for his LRF done a couple of months ago....
  15. Interesting nothing from the Express about a balmy xmas! hhmmm.... I wonder why?, look at my post on the last page.
  16. There was an article a week or so ago by the Express saying how a white christmas was a 'sure bet' - based on the weather at that time - again Pm incursions bringing wintryness mainly to the north and that a white xmas for places like Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle was almost guaranteed. Journalists at that paper must believe that the weather you experience then continues for weeks unabated, they obviously have very limited knowledge on the subject although they regularly have the weather as headline material. The guff they are producing on this supposed 'big freeze' is laughable, probably down to the headlines they were continually putting on their front covers a couple of months back about a freezing November and December, no doubt there have been areas of England and Scotland effected by snow and Ice but nothing unusual for the time of year and certainly nothing in comparison to the last couple of Decembers. Oh by the way watch out for the killer ice! and if you fancy getting rid of your hard earned cash this xmas put a bet on a white one, I'd rather get rid of it on football.
  17. I've got a funny feeling this will be as close to a snowfall that we might get this winter in these parts, the Atlantic looks very active compared to recent years. Also waiting for the first air frost here too! Quite amazing to think throughout autumn we had 'blocking' but the wrong kind with a continuation of warm/mild continental feed and so as the block was 'snapped' nothing but Atlantic stuff!
  18. My God it's the nutty professor, I can't help thinking his LRF for December has been based on the general GFS outputs over the last week, which tend to show Polar and Arctic incursions as low pressure moves eastwards to the north of Scotland with less colder air in these events to the south. So a warm New Years day...strange how he can be pinpointing a day from over a month away. Also agreed with Mr Holmes about his presentation skills...can he get any more laid back and not to the point!
  19. A majority of the FI runs on the GFS points towards High Pressure close to southern UK or even a bartlett High which will eventually bring us milder stuff after mid-month. The prevelance of heights to our south will continuel to tend to make these Pm incursions rather tame affairs towards the south of the country.
  20. Milder Tm spells with the odd Pm spell thrown in looks the order of the day, and maybe a Bartlett as well. So I'll plump for 6c and no repeat of the past 2 Decembers.
  21. Yep like others, thanks for the effort put in and the clear and concise way the forecast has been presented. Interesting too how it 'veers' away from some other forecasts that predict a mild winter for most of Europe and Scandanavia and coldest being SE Europe. Lets hope your not too far off the mark.
  22. They really need to fill their papers with any 'old pap' they can - big chill temps of 44.6f (strange) in the north and 50f in the south which will be fractionally above average for the time of year - well done Daily Express for trying to justify your previous headlines!!
  23. Daily Express in top corner said today 'Warmest November for 353 years but watch out December cold blast on it's way!'...after further reading the cold blast they were referring to came from the METO predicting early December temps would drop to near normal values of 45/46f but it would feel colder than of recent weeks. So once again Daily Express misinterpreting quotes, no mention at all of the Big November Freeze going missing either! Give me the Daily Star anytime.
  24. Euro High to be replaced by HP to the south or south east and this time mild Tm air in another week/10 days time.
  25. Daily Express has three types of headlines I've noticed over the last few months and it doesn't vary - 1. Health issues (and new scientific finds i.e. for cancer/lowering blood pressure etc. 2. Pensions/VAT/Tax 3. Extreme weather to effect the UK. and the headlines are larger than any other paper. I hope when this weather (Siberian Freeze) doesn't come off (probability says it won't) that they get lots of mail/letters reminding them of the countless headlines they've had over the last couple of months. We used to get this paper back in the 70's thank god we don't now.
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