Ken Ring

I hope I have answered your question, Ed.

Ed, the SOI, from which El Nino was but a media-inspired offshoot, is a function of the lunar declination cycle. Basically, due to the earth's obliquity, the moon changes (earth) hemispheres on a 27.3 day cycle. This moves huge volumes of water back and forth and correspondingly the changing of barometric pressures. All weather comes from the ocean and most rain ascends from it, with most rain falling back into the sea. Most violent storms are never witnessed by humans. Deep currents produce swells which become surface waves, then SSTs, winds, then varying air pressures. Storms at sea do not come from far off - they originate under your boat. No one ever reported sailing on a calm sea whilst a violent storm raged down from the sky above. Currents are a lunar consequence, starting first with the transiting moon's daily jostling of the earth's inner core. This is the ball at the centre of the earth's geomagnetic electrical field, which sits at the earth's centre. The transiting moon becomes electrically charged as it passes through earth's outer electrical field. There are then two magnets attracting each other: the moon and the inner core. The moon releases pressure because it is perpetually transiting, but the inner core exerts pressure on adjacent earth and in the direction of the moon, resulting in the daily Land (or Earth) Tide. As a result, up to two thousand kms of vertical displacement of the earth rises and falls every day at every point of the earth's surface, the bulge following the transiting moon. Australia rises and falls 50cm, the equator by about 55cm and NZ and Ireland about 20cm. The Land tide governs what happens in the ocean, which only averages 2-3kms in depth if shared over the area of the oceans. The currents are a cyclic function of this land displacement, originating from the behaviour of the moon. Otherwise one would have to ask, knowing the existence of the Land Tide, and how the earth bulge follows the moon, how could this 'tide' in the surface of the crust not be traceable to lunar positions? knowing there is a land Tide, and the tiny amount of sea compared to depth of land beneath, how is the coastal tide not answerable to the land displacement?

I would like to join the congratulations for a well assembled winter report. I hope there is room on the forum for a second opinion. First let's look at the hype about this 2015/16 El Nino, and about it being the strongest ever in recorded history http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/283038/strongest-ever-el-nino-headed-for-nz which is an extremely bold claim, seeing that Peruvian recorded history of these events dates back 15,000 years http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/ancient/nino.htm But then some mets came out saying it is the strongest only since 1997 http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/farmers-forced-to-slaughter-cows-as-el-nino-leaves-no-room-for-passengers-20151023-gkgm2x.html and then even this got drastically modified http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bureau-of-meteorology-says-el-nino-on-its-way-out-widespread-rain-on-the-way-in/398164 So in going from strongest-ever to almost-gone within 2 months, I do think there is fair justification to challenge the process used to jump to these quickly changing conclusions. Firstly, because comprehensive satellite data goes back only to 1979, it would be impossible to call any El Nino the worst or strongest 'ever' in modern times. Secondly El Nino was only named as such in 1982-83, previously called the southern oscillation index (SOI) and then Humboldt Current, and most have forgotten 1965-66 which would be the most destructive El Nino-type condition so far, worldwide. Thirdly, El Nino only ever historically referred to Australia and the variance between SSTs between Tahiti and Darwin, which is how it is still monitored to this day. Solar connection factors 1. We have just come through solar cycle#24 which peaked at the end of 2014 and cycle#24 is now in decline. 2. El Ninos typically follow solar cycle peaks and minimums. There are roughly 2 El Ninos per decade. 3. The strength or weakness of the solar cycle just before El Nino determines the strength or weakness of the El Nino. 4. We have just come through a weak solar cycle - logical outcome: a weak El Nino. 5. Weak El Ninos after weak solar cycles have been 1976-78 and 2006-7. 6. Strong El Ninos after steep solar cycles have been 1957-58, 1965-66, 1982-83, and 1997-98. 7. El Ninos reduce cyclones. A weak El Nino will reduce number and strength of cyclones. El Nino-equivalent years also slow the Gulf Stream. A weak El Nino will slow it only a little. No such thing as an El Nino winter in the northern hemisphere Science is an exercise that uses language in an approach towards precision. Unfortunately weather is an inexact science, which means it hardly qualifies to be a science at all, and is closer to beinh just a set of informed opinions, which places it nearer to journalism. Neither is there any such thing as an El Nino summer in the southern hemisphere. Due to the solar and lunar cycle of seasons this coming southern hemisphere summer will be long and dry, but that is not what is meant by El Nino, which refers more to the Australian dry season between autumn and spring. El Nino is not a description that applies in summer. The 2015-16 El Nino will be chased away by a spring La Nina around next October and November for Australia. A 'northern hemisphere El Nino' is just a desire to get in on the media excitement. In these days of global warming/climate change hype, El Nino has been added as another fearmongering factor for climatologists to attract research funding from gullible governments and the even more gullible taxpaying public. Ireland winter As I have been saying all through this year through my website www.predictweather.com and in my Weather Almanac for Ireland for 2016, I estimate that the coming Ireland winter should be fairly mild, with a storm in the first week of January and snow mostly in January and March, with the last snow day likely in May. Winter is close to being typical for Ireland. Conditions will not be too severe, but with the usual occasional rain and snow. The windiest spell may be in the third week of February. The Sun determines the temperature cycle, not the El Ninos, which are part of a lunar cycle of changing ocean current directions. Sometimes in El Nino westerly winds strengthen and direct Atlantic storms on a northerly track across N Europe dragging the jetstream south and over eastern Europe which can mostly miss Ireland. Of course temperatures will drop in coming weeks, but that is the nature of seasonal change. Perhaps the hype about strong El Ninos bringing harsh winters to Ireland is also misinformed. 1982-83 and 1997-98 were strong El Nino years but there were no harsh UK winters then. Even if we allow this winter to be labelled El Nino-like, I would estimate it to be another weak El Nino year. The weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season. As forementioned, El Niños typically follow a solar maximum or minimum and we have just come through a weak solar cycle e.g. the weak El Nino of 2006-7 followed a weak solar cycle. Alternatively, strong El Ninos follow relatively steep solar cycles e.g. the El Ninos of 1957-58, 1965-66, 1982-83, and 1997-98. During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, winter across northern Europe, including Ireland was very cold mainly because there was a deep, long, solar minimum at the same time and basically the sun was asleep. The same happened during the extended solar minimum of 1962-62, still called one of the coldest winters Ireland has ever had. A further example was the extended solar minimum during 1932-35. What happened then? In 1932 the Niagara Falls froze over. In 1933 came the Great Blizzard of February 1933 which was the greatest weather event of the 1930s to struck Ireland, and at the time was reported as being the greatest weather event of the 20th century. Therefore El Ninos must be considered along with depth of the solar cycles they follow. Looking ahead, I would suggest that like November, December is again drier, sunnier and warmer than average. There may be fluctuating temperatures with rain in the first and third weeks and a temperature drop around 12-16 December. A frost is likely just before Xmas Day, then on 26 December come cold SE winds followed by wintry rain as temperatures barely climb above freezing. Therefore expect snow on or near 12 and 28 December. January is unsettled in the first half of the month but fairly mild, with stormy rain 9-19 January. On several occasions temperatures will climb to nearly 15C and this may feel warm and spring like. This has happened several times before so is not global warming, and even though daffodils may start to flower it is just in response to soil temperatures. Chances of snow come around 17 January. February is again interesting as regards daytime temperatures. After 12 February, winds from the south draw warm air up to possibly around 14-15C. Then it goes windy between 17-26 February and snow is a possibility around 17 February. The month is mostly cloudy. March is a month of mild temperatures, with about 2/3 of daytime maximums reaching to above 10C, only dipping below 2C on about three days. Conditions will be good for snow around 3, 10 and 14 March. April is much colder than the winter months in the last week, with possibility of snow around 18 and 23 April. In the last week in April comes the first decent spell of sunshine. I would say don't get your hopes too high - summer will be cool and unsettled overall, with some good dry intervals but no prolonged heat waves. Ken Ring

A hot and dry UK summer is expected from my point of view, which is lunar longrange. My reason is the juxtapositioning of moon phase, declination and perigee cycles, and the similarity of this to past years. I expect potentials for heatwaves in India in the second half of June, Canada to be hot enough for forest fires by the end of June, heatwaves in the US Midwest and East in July, then heatwaves in France by the start of August and in the UK through August. Close perigeal southern declinating full moons, with their associated kingtides, set up dry hot intervals for July and August. A resurging second sunspot peak in cycle #24 may occur about September, which could add to the hot conditions. I'd say enjoy it while it lasts. The situation may not be as good next year. Ken Ring www.predictweather.com

No, I was expecting a response about the fog from The PIT, last post three weeks ago. In lieu of one I thought the thread might have been closed, so I put another message up and was very relieved to find I was still able to post..! Ken Ring

As I recall their usual practice is to say both a severe winter and a very mild one at different times, a bob each way, so they can always claim they said it first somewhere. Then when you try to nail them for a solid longrange prediction they say they can't go more than 3 days ahead. Late November eh? If you look at my UK report of last year you will see I projected ahead to this current season without wavering my view. From (still on my website) my report issued on 10 April 2006, "Next (UK) winter of 2006/7 should be rather mild compared with winters of the recent past..some areas may not get any snow until February 2007 and in some areas late season snowfalls may persist into May and June..winter may begin for the UK with a milder January..a coolish March-May, without breaking any winter cold records..the whole summer of 2007 won't be as hot as it has been in recent years...2008 may begin with a very mild winter and, mid year, a very mild summer." So of you're comparing me and the BBC I do think I said it first.. Ken Ring

Whatever. My report of 6 Dec said drier conditions 9-16 Jan, then the UK winter would begin about now and generally not let up until after 19 May, hail and sleet/snow even extending into June for some areas. In other words winter late in arriving and a cool spring. So far this has been the case so hard to say it was not picked up on. Ken Ring www.predictweather.com

Perhaps more convincing, from this, written last year 6 weeks ago. From my winter report http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39 .."in January's third week, rain again arrives mostly falling overnight. Some flooding is expected in low lying and coastal areas.." May I repeat that I am only using the moon for this. stay dry ken Ring www.predictweather.com

You might do a little experiment, seeing fog has been in the news most lately as a severe weather event. Fog comes at any time, but more commonly this side of the full moon, more between first quarter to full moon, and most often at waxing gibbous, which coming up is 29 Dec onwards. Just look up "fog waxing gibbous" on Google and see how many refs come up. Do the same with all other phases and there seem to be less reports. Perhaps places most susceptible to winter fog may get foggier after 29th. If so, you may be more convinced.

Following gealach(moon) in Gaelic, one wonders, as Gala or Galata, was the original Moon-Mother of Gaelic and Gaulish tribes, whether "Gaelic" itself came from the word for Moon. Then there's the old British Metra, Menos meant "Moon" and "power" to the Greeks, and the root word for both "moon" and "mind" is the Indo-European manas, mana, or men. So I would assume that the Dutch probably followed the Latin/Germanic line. Also, just occurred to me, perhaps "gealach" and "gala" lead to 'gravity'. Does anybody know? Will have to look it up.

I don't think so. How many times has that doomsday voice been heard, from the time of Moses until now. We have been through the naughty idol-worshippers, population explosion, acid rain, the oil "shortage", the Y2K bug, the Sars Virus, Bird Flu, Aids..all were going to wipe us out, but we have come out the other side unscathed. Has it ever struck anyone that the "Ice Age" of the 1970s accompanied the Cold War, and talk of it ended when the Berlin Wall came down, and "Global Warming" today accompanies the Hot War that is occurring in the Middle East and Iraq. When are we going to learn that entrepeneurial political systems that exist for greed control the minds of their populace? If there was massive money to be made out of global cooling, do you not think we would be all hearing about it? Already one billion dollars has been given out by the NZ government to climate scientists for research into a nonexistent problem. We are a tiny country, General Motors has a bigger GDP. We have poor children not being fed, crime rampant because of not enough police resourcing, homeless sleeping under bridges, and elderly who can't get into poorly funded hospitals. yet our government chooses to gamble carbon chips in the new casino. We have already lost $800,000,000 in the Kyoto Protocol farce. This is the world as we know it. Goodbye to this would be very welcome.

Some very good points here, Crimsone. "..we observe that behavioral characteristics of certain animals can change according to the moons phase, and that it has a physical effect on tides. It seems we tend not to consider that it has any physical effect on the earths core or the atmosphere because we can't see or measure any change. Of course, that doesn't mean it doesn't happen, and logic suggests that it may indeed be the case, though to an unknown extent/effect as yet". Humans tend to see only what is in front of their nose, and trust the opinion of a "leader" rather than their own experience. The leader may be an entrepeneur and heartless slavetrader, but once identified as a special person he is still reverred. And if a silly scientist makes a silly statement, if he is famous enough even commonsense may not negate it. By any logic the moon must play a part in all of life, on the world outside our skins and our personal worlds inside. If it did not, then how are we so insulated from such huge gravitational and geoelectomagnetic effects? To only rely on "evidence" from instrumentation we have been thus far clever enough to invent, is only the tip of our world of gathered data. Instruments are only ever extensions of our 5 senses, so the senses themselves are still the best evidencers. We need to regard the moon outside of any religious/historical contention. Can we? That is the challenge of western climatologists. Frankly I don't see it possible.

Absolutely agreed. Once again, apologies to Lady P. I accept responsibility for reacting harshly. I hope others also always take responsibility for their posts. Now, can we get on with the discussion?

I can only repeat, sorry if I misunderstood you. If you decide to have a tantrum you must take responsibility for that. I am only trying to advance discussion here. This thread was a call to me to respond and I took up the offer. Messages do get misconstrued and I'd advise you to reapproach the subject if you felt misinterpreted. In my experience those who call themselves "religious" in the context of being anti to anything lunar are what I would call bigoted. Take it or leave it, but I didn't call anyone a bigot.

And maybe the ocean tide is pushed up by centrifugal forces and the moon's force is a finishing touch. And maybe the earth is warmed by cosmic rays and internal heat and the sun's effect is a finishing touch. And perhaps the rustling of the trees causes the wind and the earth's rotation+gravity+sun's heat+moon's direction are just finishing touches. Ple-ease..what would be so horribly wrong with the notion of a huge object between a quarter and a third the size of Earth(so close that it lights up the night sky enough to almost read by) affecting the air enough to alter the weather? And do you really think a tiny thing like a car's exhaust can alter weather/climate but a big thing like the moon cannot??? Oh, in case you haven't noticed, crabs, insects (like bees), birds, fish and cows obviously know more about astronomy than humans. They know when the moon is about to be full or new even though they often can't see it, and their behaviour, mating, migratory movement and feeding, alters accordingly. Now wouldn't it be good if one day we became smart like that. Ken Ring