fujita5

I look to be in a good position here in Clacton. I need to be up relatively early in the morning but can feel an all-nighter coming on. May try and grab a bit of sleep early this evening and get up about 11 to see what's happening

BBC forecast on News 24 just now mentioned temperatures "close to 40C"....

I work in breakdown insurance. I'm concerned about the number of drivers who will be flocking to beaches etc. It only takes one major accident on a motorway and you have thousands of vehicles stuck and at risk of overheating. Then if their cars can't run, air con stops working and you have people stuck in boiling hot cars. If recovery operators can't get to them in a timely fashion, it could be pretty serious for some. Again, not expecting thousands of such incidents but it's a possibility that drivers need to allow for. Cars should be checked, ice boxes packed with drinks and breakdown insurance documents checked to make sure it's still valid!

Strikes detected north of London

Sitting on Clacton sea front watching very distant lightning between W and SW.

This isn't an issue for tonight's potential activity, it's forecast to develop from an elevated mixed layer a couple of thousand feet up.

Very intense snow shower has left a slight covering on grass, cars and roofs here in Clacton. Very impressive for April!

Still too much uncertainty. 18Z GFS has no more than 65mph inland. Terrible inter-model consistency.

The system is developing an elongated centre, the southern centre develops first then the northern becomes dominant by midday tomorrow.... Probably. Still a lot could happen between now and then. So yeah it might be marginally further north but it's hard to say due to the complex structure. Fascinating stuff.

Trouble is, there's been huge uncertainty. Some models lessened the wind by 10-15 mph on the 12z runs, now ICON 18Z has seriously upped the ante for the capital. Had they issued widespread red and the winds been 60mph they would've got so much stick for it.... But the same goes if they don't issue a red and London gets hammered. Tough call. Anyway if the ICON verifies it's gonna be mayhem, the most populated areas getting hit like that in the daytime is a real problem.

Reading experts' posts on another forum, it seems some of the models indicate the northern low centre over Scotland is going to deepen more than expected, and drain some of Eunice's energy away, reducing the intensity a little. Still uncertain but this would explain them holding off issuing wider red warnings. Lots of uncertainty, even at this late stage.

Yep and in the next frame the weakening sting jet pays me a visit in Clacton. As much as I love severe weather that's not something I ever want to see in my lifetime again having seen the devastation in '87.

If more models come on board with the idea of the sting jet not developing until the storm reaches the Midlands, that's when the TV forecasts take a more serious tone. 100+mph winds in the middle of the country during daylight hours are extremely rare and could catch a lot of people off guard.

Yeah it was scary in Clacton. The gusts aren't "normal" in a sting jet, they're like explosions going off with sudden rhythmic blasts of wind caused by the high-momentum jet stream winds bouncing off the top of the stable boundary layer. Coupled with a weird milky blue sky it was eerie. Obviously nothing compared to '87 but I slept through the worst of that

I was out in the garden in Clacton-on-Sea putting my rubbish out and I saw it.