Alex

Small steps but I definitely can see a trend for the jet stream to slowly relax north - unfortunately not enough next week to prevent influence but over time into week 2 this could allow a ridge across the far south /SE.

This summer started off wet and cool but July has been dry and mostly warm/sunny here in Essex bar Thursday and a Friday last week. Average max is 23c here currently for July. Moving onto this week, I still can’t understand why there is a reluctance for Met Office and BBC to discuss potential of some very high temps. Models now firming up on mid to upper 30s - yet both saying 33-34c, maybe they will be right but they have been burnt quite a few times in last few years - 1st July 2015 comes to mind! I understand they need to exercise a little caution. Then there is that EURO4 model that met office uses for automated temps - only 30c in Chelmsford according to met office whereas models (even GFS saying 36c for Thursday here!).

I visited a local boot sale this morning and bought what I thought was a bargain an unused Maplin N23DQ professional solar powered weather station. Unfortunately I came home to set up and everything works other than the display unit which makes the whole station a bit redundant. Therefore I would love to get it working, any ideas ? Also does anyone have a spare that is working that I could buy? Thanks Alex

I’ll go for 31.8c West London on Saturday.

Yes that would be right for more western districts but cloud cover in the southeast is looking less of a problem.

Interesting times ahead. The GFS 12z has backed a slightly different scenario to the ECM. If tonight’s GFS comes off it may actually end up warmer in some places even without the higher uppers as the air is sourced from a more southerly direction whereas modification would happen more with the ECM. The UKMO run looks more middle ground between the two. I still am a bit perplexed that the automated apps and national forecasts aren’t as buoyant about the really high temperatures.

My recent experience/knowledge of sunspot activity is that there is often a delayed response in the atmosphere so I would prob say this year is more akin to 2006/2007. Difference is though that this cycle is lower than the last so I would expect some colder winters to come in the next few years and with the summer as someone has said its a roll of the dice with a meandering jet that is difficult to shift!

When you say the east I assume that doesn’t include the southeast I.e. Essex and Kent as Summer 2018 here in Chelmsford will go down as a memorable one. We don’t often suffer from sea mist with the relatively short sea track to the continent. It started really in April, I ran the London Marathon in record breaking marathon temps for London and this was followed by up a record breaking May Bank holiday. Most of May was fine, dry and sunny here and the 2nd bank holiday was another hot sunny one. The first week of June was mostly dry and warm but we had a couple of cloudy days although I enjoyed a week in the Lake District which was also mostly fine, dry and warm. When I got back it was relentless all the way to mid August. Most days were above 25c and we had one week where everyday recorded 30c+ (recorded at the local weather station - Writtle) the last day of this spell had 34c. I do though concur that thunder was almost non existent. We had one maybe two weak thunderstorms. The second half of August was more mixed and a little disappointing compared to what we had just encountered! Most people were talking about installing air con as it was warm at night, I’m sure a cooler wetter summer will make people forget about that.

Having been in the background for a while, I feel it is time to post with this extraordinary spell upon us. Re the next 48hours, the GFS has been correcting itself each run, steadily coming into line with the other models in regards to the high uppers and stalling of the front to the west. My gut feel is that the July record is under threat but I doubt the August one is yet! With potentially thunderstorms breaking out and some cloud around, I expect 36c is most likely across East Anglia and the Southeast. Favoured spots must be places that have done well this week like Central Suffolk but also Essex and Kent could also be a challenger. Re this weekend, my thoughts are that it will get cooler but I expect temps to hold up to the mid 20s across the far SE, elsewhere early 20s with some showers around. Going forward, I expect some more heat plumes but also sense that August will be wetter than June and July as thunderstorms will likely become more apparant in a more unstable setup. Looking back at analogues, September could well also be interesting - further plumes and stalled lows look more likely than normal at first and when the Atlantic does break through we could see some very eventful weather!

This situation is actually much more common in the SE. Here in Chelmsford in Essex we have not even had 1mm in June, last measurable rain was in May. Normally here we get a very dry spell in the summer, during 2010 we went through a similar spell and then August was wet. I think it’s obviously much more unusual elsewhere and there probably is more panic than is necessary from the water companies.

I live in the Southeast and the weekend just gone was brilliant, three days of sunny warm weather so before I start discussing my own thoughts, not all eastern areas fare badly with an onshore wind. Essex does relatively well with the shorter sea track. Today wasn’t as good but that was more to do with residual cloud from the overnight rain/storms rather than low cloud. Moving onto my own observations, as Tamara and others have said earlier today the pattern looks like sustaining for a while longer, AAM looks like staying on a steady upward trend for the coming days which should sustain the current pattern for at least the next 10 days. The earlier GFS output looked far too progressive in eroding the heights to the NE. Going forward it’s all to play for, even a downward trend in AAM (as long as it’s not a sharp sudden drop) should allow for at least 2/3 days of heights being pushed to the east allowing potentially a plume of hot air before the Atlantic breaks through and any recovery in AAM could see heights recover. I notice the MJO moving into phase 4-5-6 which would enhance the potential of some real heat around ten days into June. Many of the best summers have come from when the ENSO is in a neutral state and this year we have the right ingredients for some good weather at least! Let’s hope it continues.

As most have said winter and early spring weren’t particularly dry and in fact quite wet! It was only a few weeks ago that the fields were crying out for some prolonged dry weather. The current dry spell although is affecting the whole of the country is very common in the southeast and we get away from droughts most years these days. Unless there is a very hot summer I don’t expect restrictions to come into force or anything.

Interesting model watching for the London marathon runners on Sunday. Interestingly the models have slowly been revising the pattern more east. Earlier in the week a ridge was expected to be sitting over the south and now it’s quite far East. I wonder if this continues whether the cooler air will reach all areas earlier than thought and give some welcome relief to us runners.

For me living in the southeast, I probably do expect more. I holiday most years in the Lake District and a good day up there would probably be a disappointing one down in Essex so it is subjective. Saying all that last summer started really well, although 2nd half was poor. 2016, 2015 and 2014 were all ok summers with hot spells and some decent thunderstorms. 2013 was very good especially July. June was a little cool but dry from memory. 2012 was poor but August was satisfactory with a local hot spell on V weekend (32c on both Sat/Sunday from memory). 2011 was also poor. 2010 was mostly good other than August. I remember a long period of dry sunny weather for 3-4 weeks in June into July during the World Cup and beyond. Best summers from memory though have to be 94/95/96/03/06/2013. 2005 wasn’t bad either. Worst summer is reserved for 2007 although even then there was some better spells of weather at times and we had that fantastic April!

Yes I do remember well the first half of summer 2010. Most of it was the pronounced NW-SE split. Most days my local station was the hotspot (Writtle) and one of the days had an outrageous split where I was driving back from the Lake District and it was 18c and when I got home 31c in Chelmsford. It steadily went downhill from the end of July rather than any marked change overnight and by August it was very different - often wet and rather cool. Yes reminds me of this year a bit so far, although I am sure some of the days in 2010 around mid June although dry were a little cool before it warmed up around the 20th significantly.

Terrible terminology Knocker. Hail is not a wintry shower! I won't go into the science of it I'll let you read it up yourself. It could be 50c and still hail! Anyway onto models and it does appear that a crumb of comfort is appearing with the jet slightly more north from the weekend onwards although the tilt means there will more of a NW flow which unfortunately means it will feel rather cool for the time of the year with showers as the slack flow allows. Over time it appears that we could end up with the flow becoming more westerly again and the jet that little bit more north which suggests a NW-SE split establishing. No sign of hot weather reappearing at the moment.

Although I haven't researched any records, it has been very dry since last July here in Essex. We had a very warm July, August and September. Winter was generally mild and dry with little rain and the spring has also been dry so far. I am sure nature will have its way and we will probably have a wet summer. But if this carries on surely there will be restrictions?

Interesting day I suppose, one thing I have noticed though is that I think the Met Office have gone backwards not forwards over the last 5 years. This of course is personal opinion but, 1) I don't believe some of the TV presenters are fully qualified meteorologists. I am not a big fan of Carol Kirkwood for example, I know some of you are - and she does comes across as a good presenter but her skills relating to weather/geography seem basic. I personally miss the fully qualified staff like Michael Fish and John Kettley. 2) I think the automated output has been worst since the Met Office started using there own models. Most of the summer has seen temperatures forecast too low during the day and too high at night, wind speeds are often breezier than predicted too. The new model deals dreadfully with Spanish Plumes (for example the forecast high for the 1st July was 29c in London two days before, it actually hit 35c! 3) The forecasts have been becoming too basic, It's like the Met Office don't want Joe Public to have any knowledge of what a high pressure system is for example. Too much glamour, I'm sitting in a zoo stroking animals (BBC Breakfast) rather than why it is raining/staying sunny today. Just my opinion and I hope the Met Office win the contract back, but I think they need a hard look at what things they could change. Maybe they became too comfortable?

Looks like a continuation of a NW/SE split in medium term which has been the story of the summer. Apart from last Friday and Sunday - where I live in Essex has been mostly settled and I can't remember any days with frontal rainfall other than them ones mentioned.

Just adding to the people who say the ground isn't dry enough for v high temps. Well they are in Essex. The ground is rock solid! I can't speak for the rest of the country but it's very very dry here.

I know it's not the met office thread but I wonder what there own model shows as it often under predicts plumes as it did in 2011, 2012 and 2013 here in Essex. Onto the models and no one has mentioned the GEM which has been fairly consistent for heat. Interested to see the ECM overnight ensembles to see if the op was a complete outlier or onto the signal that the trough will be further west with a more dominant ridge to our east.

Living in the southeast (Chelmsford), I must confess that thunderstorms have reduced although last year saw some absolute crackers, we had three days that followed a hot spell (can't remember dates but sometime in early July). One was on Thursday and the second followed on Friday night and also we had a memorable storm on the Sunday after and all them days had high temperatures (Friday was 32c for example). We ideally need an intense plume with an Atlantic trough (similar to what the GEM model suggest tonight) to get widespread severe storms. I do agree though that there has been a reduction even here in the southeast!

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. A UK high could well force the NAO to negative. How many more times do members have to say? The NAO is literally the difference in pressure in the North Atlantic between Iceland and the Azores. Yes of course a negative NAO may indicate troughing in the wrong area for us but it may also indicate favourable blocking too.

Forget the NAO, it is merely a signal for the pressure difference in the North Atlantic and therefore has no bearing on the weather here. I would be looking at other teleconnections for ideas of developing trends like the MJO and AAM. Hope that helps.

Anyone seen the GFS 06z ensembles? All over the place!!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I will await the ECM tonight as once again the 12z looks different.