matmilne

at approximately 1300 and 1401 respectively the storm cell over the north east of aberdeenshire formed 2 funnel clouds, including one which snaked across the sky. quite something to watch i can tell you! great weather day.

average winter sounds good to me. but last year was supposed to be a dry and warm winter and we had the worst snow fall in 50 years (though it did all fall in 2 weeks in march). if we could get a white christmass for a change that would be great. The main thing for us about elnin is that the jet should be pulled further south resulting in the polar air mass coming further south than it did last year bringing generally colder conditions to the uk at various points. When it's warm it may be warmer the you'd expect, when it's cold it could be much colder than you'd expect. But it really all depends on how the main elements develop. What effect an early start will have on enin's progress is the question.

NE scotland, ellon, current windspeed 35mph.

couple of cms of snow in the rural north east, snowing on and off in the last hour, ground frozen solid.

blizzard conditions here in tarves (13 mil north w aberdeen) at 100m since 11am

still snow and sleet showers here north of aberdeen at 100m. not lying on wet roads, lying on the grass though.

sleet turned to snow here at tarves (6 miles west of ellon, 13 miles north of aberdeen) at 12.10am wed 16th, still snowing heavily, visibility less than 20m at times, large flakes, snow accumulating (ie lying) at less than 100m above sea level!

since nobody bothered seeing as everywhere except the south will get bad weather this is the thread for the almost hurricane storm presently tearing up scotland and northern ireland. monday 7th november 2005 nw aberdeenshire: house floor shaking due to severe gales. lights flickering.

if any of you have looked at the gfs for november, ther's a storm with a cp of 940 about to walz its way through greenland

can anyone give us a similar year where the weather of the year up till today roughly matched ours for this year. and a similar decade. It would give us an idea of the most likely scenarios for winter this year.

there is a storm heading towards us with a pressure centre lower than that of wilma when she was still a category 2! and by the looks of things, ex wilma will be with us in about a week as well. We're just about to see our end of october storm season. oh and there are presently 3 trpcl waves heading in, keep watching i don't think this season's over yet.

prepare for the rain remnants of wilma this week. the outflow is being wound around the big low over northern canada which is due to crawl its way over here this week.

take a look at this, see the second system developing in the south east

with 4 tropical waves now waltzing in alpha is inevitable. as for wilma, just how much worse could this thing get, it was a cat 5 before it got anywhere near the warmest parts of the gulf, florida still looks likely with most tracks over it. what areas will that storm surge hit?

that's the second tropical wave, there are four. one formed wilma, the next one is coming in now, and the others are right behind what would be nasty is if the two interacted and we were left with 2 cat 5's dancing around one another.

technically it's a storm surge, tsunami's are cause by underwater vibrations and land movement, storm surges are caused by wind and low pressure. But if it does grow to typical tsunami size it'll be one of the if not thee largest strom surge on record. she was the most intense cat 5 making her the most intense hurricane on record so it's only logical that a massive storm surge which breaks most definitions of one, should occur as well. i have a feeling this will be a record breaking season in more than a few ways. It could make a good case for climate change as well.

is that second band of cloud to the north, much like a hurricane froming one, about to wrap itself around her?

the last recorded hurricane was in december wasn't it? that means the season might officially end in november but could go on until the end of december. incidentally even if it does just last until november the 30 that's 40 days, and at the rate this hurricane formed it only takes 5 days to go from td to cat 5! so plenty time for alpha beta and gamma (there are presently 3 tropical waves on a direct couse for the GOM) I hope that high slides quickly past florida or else it's a cat 5 for texas, lousianna and poor old new orleans, they should probably evacuate N.O now, the storm surge in that region could be massive. ( isn't it funny how the three greatest storms this year have been named after women even though the names alternate) I told you all things come in threes. she is incredibly impressive though, and gonna be a total nightmare for anyone in her path

hi all i just checked and had to check again, cat 5! this time yesterday it was cat 2. well it beats gilbert that's for sure. can she achieve cat 6 or will she drop back down again? who knows, keep watching. I hope this is the last hurricane of the season, nice to go out with a real bang.

yup, 100% of nature's beauty can be deadly to human beings. TSR now have her as a cat 4 between cuba and yuc, cat 5 is possible if that high weakens a little in the next 5 days.

I posted "hurricane within 6 hours" at 2 40pm and here she is. i reckon the keys are likely to be hit, southern florida stands a good chance of being hit, but if you are in the keys i'd get the heck out of there if that high pressure strengthens the storm'll have no where else to go.

According to TSR she should reach a category one within the next 6 hours

i just hope that if she does take the north track, that she turns sharply east past yuk otherwise new orleans gets a cat 4 smashing through it, again! I don't know if they'll escape unharmed even if it does veer east. Their flood defences are way overstretched and severely damaged as it is. And florida's in enough debt without another cat 3 screaming through or even past it.

looks like whatever's going to happen will happen very soon.

well here's wonderful willma. and can i just say it's been a pleasure partaking in this historic event with you all. looks like the yuk might get her, but there's a deffinite possibility of gom penetration also so we'll see what happens but whatever will happen will happen within the next 96 hours. keep yer eyes glued to the satelite feeds. On future developments alpha is a definite possibility this year. There's another 2 tropical waves out in the atlantic on their way in.