crimsone

IMG_4141.MOV I’d quite like to sleep now. West Auckland isn’t fun right now.

Well, this sucks. Northland's munted, the coromandel is munted, parts of the Waikato are a ~little bit~ munted... ... and auckland? ... we're getting by, somehow... and frequently without power at that, https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/news/2023/02/auckland-emergency-management-orders-evacuation-of-mt-eden-residences-to-ensure-safety/

Well, it's got to category 3. Rather hoping that blocking high moving to the other side of NZ gets the hell out of the way a bit.

Gabrielle was named a few hours ago. Even as of yesterday, before it sprang to life, modelling was showing considerable agreement on it having significant impacts on the north of New Zealand's North Island. This could get tasty... or not. Some are jumping to Cyclone Bola (1988) comparisons. If my roof survives I might let you know how it went. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

VEI is measured according to the mount of material erupted rather than the force at which it's erupted. There is, of course, a general correlation, which is why the metric is used.

The 50 foot thing is likely the run-up height, not the wave height.

News report from NZ on the Tonga situation from an hour ago. A web tool tells me it's not geoblocked (unlike the website), so fingers crossed.

Another issue is that Tonga doesn't have Covid. It may or may not want boots on the ground at the moment. "But the government has also stressed the need to retain its virtually Covid-free status. Tonga was one of the last countries in the world to record a case of Covid-19 after a traveller from New Zealand tested positive while in quarantine in October, triggering a national lockdown. It remains the only confirmed case in the country. The government has held talks with Australian and New Zealand officials regarding the imposition of strict protocols for humanitarian workers. It is expected to waive the 21-day quarantine period for aid workers." Subscribe to read | Financial Times WWW.FT.COM News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication Or, given the paywall, an alternative source... "Tonga's deputy head of mission in Australia, Curtis Tu'ihalangingie, said Tonga was concerned about the risk of aid deliveries spreading COVID-19 to the island, which is COVID-free. "We don't want to bring in another wave - a tsunami of COVID-19," Tu'ihalangingie told Reuters by telephone. "When people see such a huge explosion they want to help," he said, but added Tonga diplomats were also concerned by some private fundraising efforts and urged the public to wait until a disaster relief fund was announced." Distress signal prompts U.N. concern after Tonga volcanic eruption WWW.REUTERS.COM A distress signal has been detected in an isolated, low-lying group of islands in the Tonga archipelago following Saturday's massive volcanic eruption and tsunami, the United Nations said, prompting particular...

Tonga eruption: Satellite images show island covered in ash from Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano NEWS.SKY.COM A plume of ash can be seen rising from Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano in images taken before the eruption, with the volcanic island appearing to have all but disappeared afterwards.

Not sure if this (or my previous link) is geoblocked? If memory serves, at least one of them is?

Tonga tsunami: Two deaths confirmed, MFAT says | Stuff.co.nz WWW.STUFF.CO.NZ NZ Government has confirmed two people have died following an eruption and tsunami that devastated the island nation. There is, of course, lso the matter of that distress signal, and then the fact that the comms cable is still out. Read a report earlier that 200 people were brushing ash from the runway at Nuku'alofa to allow an Aussie aid aircraft to land

I watched the video with skepticism until at 1:42 he said that it's hard to find satellite confirmation because it's quite dark. Yeh, nah. I'll wait for a trusted source to say something. If something is out there NZ or Fiji will pick it up in short order (NZ monitors islands out towards that direction), and it's well into the morning here (Tonga is on the same time zone) .

For those of you using google chrome (or another browser that'll translate), this article was very recently posted by Dr Janine Krippner - La grande eruzione del vulcano Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha’apai - INGVvulcani INGVVULCANI.COM Una nube simile a un fungo atomico, detonazioni fino a migliaia di chilometri, tsunami. E' l' eruzione del vulcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai

Not a damn thing! I'm in Auckland, but at the time I was either barreling down the 16 from Ponsonby, or in Countdown desperate to get home with some kai.

In a show of just how shakey our ability to predict these things really is (or put another way, just how little warning we might sometimes get), here's a facebook post from Jan 11th declaring the eruptive period over and the volcano dormant.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai has a major eruption cycle every 1000 years or so. We know this from sediments. Also from sediments, we know that the last one was about 1000 years ago, and that a major eruption cycle can have multiple eruptions, both little and large. What we don't know, is whether this was THE big bang, or whether it was one of multiple big bangs. We don't even know how big it was... but we do know that it was phreatomagmatic, such that the bang might have been bigger than the VEI (yet to be measured) would suggest. There are a range of scenarios, and nobody knows for sure right now. We do know that the internet is out in Tonga, their water supply is contaminated, and in lieu of full comms and the ability to fly, Aotearoa NZ currently has a P3 Orion flying over to assess the damage.

People have actually heard it here in NZ. That's one Biiiiiig phreatomagmatic explosion. The cloud it produced must be 400km across. You can see NZ on this sattelite image...

This was bad one. I mean, it was a supertyphoon with a pinhole eye at landfall, so not unexpected in a sense, but damn... Philippines Super Typhoon Rai death toll surges WWW.BBC.COM The number of fatalities rises rapidly to at least 375, as the Red Cross appeals for urgent aid. It's been a thing for years now ? The links ought to be neither here or there as they're just thumbnails. The tweets are what they are - I can't think of a better way to share content without stealing it.

No, no damage... but I heard every creak. The lows in the area, having been souped-up from drawing power and moisture from the cyclone, did flood parts of the South Island a little though.

Aftermath on Siargao Island

Some damaging weather out there, obviously... And some incredible waves breaking on the coast...

It's made its second landfall in the Philippines, and now marches on for its third while still being a hell of a storm. It might be a while before we find out what's been left in its wake so far, but based on the last Cat 5 we saw hitting a small island head on, I wouldn't expect it to be pretty.

Prognostic reasoning at 0300Z - https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2821prog.txt Apparently, I've missed a data source too. 915 hPa, it seems. - Digital Typhoon: Typhoon 202122 (RAI) - General Information (Pressure and Track Charts) AGORA.EX.NII.AC.JP