WelshSnowFan
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Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion
WelshSnowFan replied to Mapantz's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes we were.... From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians: However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this: From Watts up with that article here .....read for full info on claim... One of the longest running climate prediction blunders has disappeared from the Internet – Watts Up With That? WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM Readers of WUWT and millions of climate skeptics have read this article before, and in fact it is likely one of the most cited articles ever that illustrates the chutzpah and sheer hubris on displa… -
Never experienced storms before like those occurring in Swansea right now. Constant lightning. Constant thunder all merging into a continuous rumble....storm heading west over Llanelli now but another approaching from the east
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
WelshSnowFan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Saw this a couple of days ago from ECMWF........ Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts | ECMWF WWW.ECMWF.INT One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the... -
.....and back to sleet. No surprises there....only hope is wind has just picked up....hope this the easterly element to the front cutting in....
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Just turned to snow. Ground and surfaces wet so will need intensity to pick up to have any chance of it settling...,,
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Light sleet/rain in Ynysforgan. Not a good start but if I'm honest I didn't even expect to see sleet....
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Yep........it won't snow in Swansea (again)
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Looking at the radar,the Swansea snow shield is still fully functional. It will make an interesting research project for someone to explain how the snow missed Swansea. Its still doing it this morning. Ah well....always next year!!!!!!! WelshSnowFan
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Totally underwhelming at the moment. Knew the writing was on the wall with "That White Space" on the forecast precipitation charts a day or so ago. Never mind...some lucky areas in Wales are seeing a great event unfold. My brothers village in Hampshire has been cut off since early evening....so, everywhere but the snow shield supremo known as Swansea. Welsh(No)SnowFan
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No, that looks like its in Manselton, Swansea at the junction between Manor Road and Walter St. WelshSnowFan
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.....if that was crazy where you are....the epicentre was in Cwmllynfell approx 6-7 mile north of where I was sitting in my chair !!! Some reports locally of very minor damage ie cracks in ceilings....can't imagine what being in a big one feels like! WelshSnowFan
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Back to rain here now.... WelshSnowFan
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Yes, saw forecast for higher ground but not here! Still snowing here as well but I can see 2m temp creeping up slightly in last 10mins so its probably going to turn to sleet and then rain again soon. Nice surprise though WelshSnowFan
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Confirm that heavy rain turned to heavy snow in about 30 mins. Heavy snow now in Ynysforgan, Swansea but not sticking. Where did this come from...certainly not part of any forecast I have seen WelshSnowFan
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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15
WelshSnowFan replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I may be wrong but the chart Steve originally posted was "wind-chill" ? - have a look in top left corner. WelshSnowFan -
wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards
WelshSnowFan replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Lightening and Thunder in Swansea. Torrential rain in short bursts. -
Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z----->
WelshSnowFan replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Point is Sketty IS to the west of Manselton....so it should be here now. Dont you just hate selective snowfall. -
Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z----->
WelshSnowFan replied to A.J's topic in Regional
So... its snowing in Dunvant, snowing in Mumbles, snowing in Craig Cefn Parc, snowing in Sketty and probably snowing in tycoch (JackOne can you update please). .....even snowing in Bagan and Port talbot. I recon the council have spent all the monies building a snow shield from Morriston to Manselton. Bone dry here at the mo -
Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 22/01/13 16z----->
WelshSnowFan replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Dont worry....its not snowing in Manselton either ! -
Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013, 06z onwards
WelshSnowFan replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Looks like the front has finally stalled in a line from Blackpool- Manchester - Nottingham down to London. is it forecast to sink back south-west ? Stopped in Swansea now - melting already - temp 1 degree. Will it last until this evening ? -
Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards
WelshSnowFan replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Woken up at 2am by rain hammering on the bedroom window. Woke up again at 6am and looks like wet snow - no great depth Front does not look it will stall over South Wales?. Looks like it will clear in an hour or so looking at radar. -
Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards
WelshSnowFan replied to Coast's topic in Regional
All- I respect and value your input - but weather history (some very tortured) confirms to me that for Swansea at 75m above seal level EVERYTHING has to be perfect for snow to settle. This observation dissappears as soon as you go inland any distance ie Pontardawe upwards -
Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards
WelshSnowFan replied to Coast's topic in Regional
Looking at RainToday radar I get the same (horrible !!) feeling - looking at the radar it seems to be just off the Gower Coast - if this hits land in the next hour as likely then we will, with temps of +5 degrees only have rain. Should it turn to snow at 3am as stated elsewhere then I fear with 4+ hours of rain there is no way that snow will settle her. Hope I'm wrong big time but gut is telling me something is not correct. If the low dewpoints are on their way they are cutting it VERY fine to get here without missing the start of the party. -
Looking at a station within Blackpill foreshore a slightly higer rainfall total than at Tutt head Mumbles http://www.swansea.airqualitydata.com/cgi-bin/currentreadings.cgi?met&1009 We also have another station within Cwm Level Park within the Lower Swansea valley - shows the effect you mention - higher totals so far http://www.swansea.airqualitydata.com/cgi-bin/currentreadings.cgi?met&1006 WelshSnowFan
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I can remember GP saying yesterday I think in the Model Technical Discussion thread, to expect model uncertainty during the next couple of days. Is this tying in with GP's thoughts as he has been on the money with his thoughts for several weeks now. Just a thought, not straw clutching Just found it - GP's comments on the 8th Jan -"High chance that model performance will dip over the next few days." WelshSnowFan (Swansea)