Just Before Dawn

I’m down in Surrey and East Sussex over the weekend doing endangered plant surveys on the Surrey Heaths and South Downs. Normally I’m pretty good in hot weather but I’m not gonna lie, I’m not particularly looking forward to it if it gets up to 32 or 33. Not much shade on Thursley Heath.

The shipping forecast is an eye-opener this morning - it’s not often we get a phenomenal sea state forecast for British and Irish waters, but there’s one for Shannon in the current 24 hour forecast. That’s 40 foot+ waves!

reef Yep, our winters are getting warmer and wetter - much wetter today given the serious and deteriorating flooding situation in Lincolnshire right now.

Summer8906 It’s worth noting that the North Sea is warming up - between 0.3c and 0.4c a decade, so compared to the 80s it’s on average up to 1.5c warmer now. I don’t know what impacts that’s likely to have on Synoptics but at the very least, it means that eastern coastal areas are finding themselves on the wrong side of marginal more often than they used to.

Tim Goffer what it does show pretty vividly is the influence of a warming North Sea on the weather in the far east of the region.

Cal to give the Met their due, most of Lincs is excluded from the amber warning - it’s only really the NW part (which you’re in to be fair) that’s included. Fingers crossed for you that it comes off. As usual for us in east Lincs, the sea temps have scuppered us.

stewfox When I arrived on site first thing this morning it was calm and it did feel warmer than it should but since the wind has picked up and come round to the NNW, well those halcyon hours are well and truly in the past. Also the drizzle has turned to rain. Fortunately it's so quiet at Donna Nook today, I've been given the afternoon off!

East_England_Stormchaser91 it's already come round to the NNW here on the Lincs coast and it's starting to pick up a bit now. I imagine later this afternoon is going to be pretty raw.

Wind at Donna Nook has picked up a bit and is now coming round from the NW so the unseasonal warmth is gone, to be replaced by thick drizzle. It's going to feel nippy here this afternoon. Wind at Donna Nook has picked up a bit and is now coming round from the NW so the unseasonal warmth is gone, to be replaced by thick drizzle. It's going to feel nippy here this afternoon.

Here on the Lincs coast it's calm, dry and unseasonably warm. That said the forecast has clearly put a lot of potential seal colony visitors off as this weekend is usually heaving and it's very quiet today. Currently the worst of it here is forecast for after dark tonight.

Beverley Lass I'm a volunteer at Donna Nook and I'm on tomorrow - ours will be fine as the tides are fairly benign at the moment and we very rarely have any surge issues with a straight Northerly as it's running parallel to the shore. I'll say hi to them for you though!

Hurricane Andrew We moved here from Manchester in early Jan 1979, which was interesting, given that it was in the middle of an absolutely brutal winter which made for a culture shock of all culture shocks.

Thundery wintry showers I’ve been in Lincolnshire since 1979 and other than 2010 this is the best November snowfall since 1996.

PXL_20241118_221723780~2.mp4 Go pro footage from the top of the Wolds between Caistor and Ludford earlier tonight.

I should have put the bins out earlier.