Cheviot

-5.5c last night (in countryside near Alton, Hampshire). First proper frost since Winter 2014/15. Last year we had 2 frosts in total, this year we've already had 3 nights at or below 0c. Not bad for Autumn. Tonight may dip to -6c, all things being equal.

WIth signicant cold pooling to the East of Iceland, I suspect this will lead to increased likelihood of either Polar Maritime influx as we move into Winter months with occasional Easterlies as the Jet Rossby pattern build ridges of pressure into Siberia owing to pattern displacement. It looks like there will be a number of events. These basic patterns result from the mix of energy states in the Pacific (v. -'ve), the Atlantic (+'ve), the Arctic fresh water mix (large cold spot as mentioned) and the UK's location on the energy gradient between the Polar air mass and sub-tropical air mass. This may play out as a drought for much of China - so look out for this in the coming months. As an aside, from looking at the N.America synoptics, it looks like the NE region will have a hard Winter.

I have 2 experiences of driving in snow from recent years: 1. 22nd December 2009 when the Basinsgtoke area was blanked in 7 inches, unexpectedly. I was doing some Christmas shopping, parked outside on dry tarmac and went into the shopping mall. 2 hours later (I'm a slow shopper), I came out to find my car and all roads buried. Brilliant. I had to drive up the M3 to get home but it was no problem at all in my old Ford Ka. Almost all other vehicles slid off the roads - including big Range Rovers and Volvo XC90s. I was very proud of my little car, windscreen wipers nonchalently flicking snow in the faces of enormous 4x4s. No doubt, my skinny summer tyres and the light weight of the car gave me significant advantage over highly engineered behemoths. see the following for news accounts of this event: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8425718.stm http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/dec/22/snow-town-like-disaster-film 2. Another big snow event a couple of weeks later in my area (we had about 28cm lying with some accumulated spots up to 38cm. This time the only people trying to get out and about were 4x4s and me in my Ford Ka! I saw at least 3 Volvo XC90s abandoned, as they failed to get traction, but in my light car with skinny tyres it was no problem - just had to drive more carefully. No doubt the big cars weren't kitted out with winter tyres - you only have to go to the alps in the winter to see that the locals don't need 4x4 to live in snowy conditions - they just bung on some snow tyres (as legally obliged) and drive about in whatever cars they have. Here's a news article about a village near to me, at the time: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/06/snow-odiham-vicar-gary-keith I think if I were to buy the ultimate car for a snowy winter, I woud: 1. Get some Winter tyres (the ones with the Christmas tree symbol on) 2. Get a light weight car 3. Get 4x4 on the car the best car for this in recent years was the Fiat Punto 4x4. It could literally go places Land Rover fantantics can only dream about. As ther say in Italy, "Snow problem"

I prefer the last week of Jan and first week of Feb. Makes it memorable. Then any weather pattern other than prolonged drizzle that I grew up with on Exmoor! Never stopped raining - we called my local town (Bampton), Dampton, which was about right.

For the north downs in Hampshire, the area between Basingstoke and RAF Odiham probably gets the most consistent snow, if there is to be snow in the south. This is because anything south of the area is affected by coastal warming, West of the area won't benefit from Easterlies as much, north is lower or drier, east is affected more by proximity to coast, lower lying or London's heat island affect. As with much of the South and South East, the best snow comes from Easterlies aka "Thames Streamer" air flows. There has been snow every winter for the past 6 years at some point in the winter. The previous 3 years have seen dumps that have remained for at least 1 week, with 2010 seeing snow lying for roughly 4 weeks and piled snow lasting 10. In 2009/10 at one point we had a single dump of 37cm (deeper than my shovel length) on top of an existing 12cm - so 49cm lying, which was with us for just under 2 weeks. This was then topped up with further lighter falls. In comparison with other north downs od south downs areas, if the streamer is on, then it delivers more here, or at least haz done for the past 4 out of 6 years, owing to the peculiarity of its micro-climate. Each Winter when I get into work, most of the areas around have little or no snow, while this area can be snowed in if you don't have the right gear.

Steve - what inferences are you making? I can't connect..

What's a Bartlett??!

Prophet-like, he preaches the coming of weather that cold-rampers (like me) live to see. Potent predictions will only ever be met with derision unless they are true, at which point the forecaster would achieve Messianic-like reputation. He has yet to be statistically accurate. The likes of Corbyn should be pilloried because they choose to take a very public position on a technically challenging subject that is in its infancy, forecasting extremes that are high-unlikely, disruptive and threatening; scare-mongering. Why would someone take such a position? He seems to really believe his ambition to forecast long-range extreme events at a micro level. We can take pleasure if he is right, because with such skills he will allow world economists to stabilise world commodity prices through accurate Futures pricing and our bills payments will drop and stabilise. If he is wrong, then he can learn that Hubris and ego belong behind closed doors. So, 13 pages of thoughts on the topic seems light - if he is a weather guru, let us rejoice! Otherwise, let him have it!

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but with the anomaly chart, what do the red and blue colours denote? Thanks!

Come on BFTP! I for one have enjoyed your views - ignore the vocal minority!

second ground frost for me, though above 0c again. This morning is the coldest of the autumn at 1c with wide spread frost on the grass.

Some interesting views on cavity insulation and the problems that can arise from filling the cavity space with material: http://www.askjeff.co.uk/cavity.html

6 inches on hils near Basingstoke on top of the 2 inches that were left. Brilliant conditions now. About -1c and sun is shining. Last time it was like this around here was in the early 80s. :winky:

Yes - not sure on figure, but quite a bit higher. I do know that the Lake District and Glencoe were substantially higher. Scafell and the surrounding mountains are small remnants of an ancient super-volcano. The area around Glencoe also holds the remnants of a super-volcano. Super-volcanos emit enormous amounts of rock over their active life. The Scafell and Glencoe volcanos had an estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index of 8 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index for further description). This is termed a "mega-collasal" eruptive volcano, and compares with the likes of Yellowstone and Taupo in New Zealand. These are climate controlling volcanoes that can cause global havoc to life. To give some indicator of their size, Mount St Helen's in 1980 erupted 1000 times less material than either of these. Krakatoa and Pinotubo erupted about 40 times less material. These truelly are giants of nature. Estimating the height of super-volcanoes is difficult because they come in different forms. However, it is likely that 3000-4000m asl was possible. I recall reading somewhere that the mountains of the Caledonian range (of which the Lake District is geologically part of) were Himilayan in size about 450 million years ago. I'm afaid I'm not old enough to qualify this!

This time of year always leads to 'heating contention' in my house. My wife feels the cold easily and turns blue, whereas I am a hot person and am happiest when I can feel the chill of Autumn. I heard the soft click of the heating coming on last night for the first time. My house is very old and damp, which makes every degree fall in temperature feel like a step closer to permafrost. Because the walls of the house are solid lime, flint and lathe and the celings low, it heats up quickly but once you pull the plug on the heating, it's like sitting in a Siberian ice house. The most difficult thing is deciding when to change duvets from Summer (0-4.5 tog) to Autumn (9 tog) to Winter (15 tog). My wife would love the Winter duvet year round, but I find it so heavy that it pins my legs to the bed and I wake from dreams of my local lido as another wave of sweat hits me. We had a new condenser boiler installed 2 years ago - it has made a huge difference to our bills (lower) and to the heating effectiveness. The old boiler would struggle in mid-Winter to heat the water to 30c (cold showers were the norm.) whereas now, we have scorching water on tap. Magnificent! Mid-Winter, the night time temperatures in the bedrooms usually hover around 12c, Mid-Summer they are about 19c. One boon of having a damp house and a powerful heating system is that Winter evenings with the heating on can feel more like a steam room - our peak temperature last Winter was 28c in our sitting room where there is a log burning stove and central heating! All other rooms in the house at the time peaked at a modest 18c.

We had about 6 inches overnight. It stopped snowing at 10am, but it's snowing again now. I'm based in the hills just outside Odiham at 140m asl.

looks tricky on the ice!

Many thanks all. I've just tried the freezer trick with no success. I'll try it again... Failing that, I'll try swinging it about my head like the proverbial cat.

Hi all, I have an alcohol Brannan min max thermometer which I love - it has the old school feel about it when reading the temperatures in a driving blizzard. Alas, the min and max needles have dropped into the alcohol column and I am at a loss as to how I can get the needles back on top of the column. Any ideas? I'm averse to buying a new one, but don't want to shake the thermometer too hard for fear of breaking it. Typical that just when we get some good cold weather, my guage breaks!

This is a camel spider: http://www.camelspiders.net/large-camel-spider-picture.htm Enough to give you all the fear!

That's a huge amount of snow. What do places like Twizel do when the snows come in?

The winter will bring a long hard cold period with frequent snow events. The snow will accumulate on higher ground and lead to alpine conditions in wind-exposed areas. Farmers will struggle to feed their animals and wild creatures will perish or come to shelter by our homes. Northern upland roads will spend much of the Winter impassable and Southerly upland areas (Dartmoor particularly) will be subjected to heavy snows, interspersed with the more normal Atlantic rains. This will be a Winter of harsh Siberian winds and polar maritime air masses interspersed with continental and atlantic air. The British Isles will be the battle ground between these air masses. As the ferocious cyclonic weather systems pile in, we will be longing for soft mild wet weather.

Looks like honeysuckle

Many of the inaccuracies seem to have occurred since the BBC have tried to show localised weather patterns with their roaving weather review. Before anyone pretended they could forecast such a detailed picture of the weather, the forecasts seemed to be more reliable. Now they actually show cloud pooling and precipitation events at so high a resolution that either they have childish faith in their simulation algorithms or they think the public are dull-witted enough to enjoy the theatrical real-time feeling forecasts, inspite of the obvioius limitations to their predictive powers. That said, I think they get away with it because the zooming nature of the roaving weather review means you've got less than 5 seconds to absorb your region's weather before the virtual camera wheels off to another corner of the country. In both cases, the wrong sort of reliance on technology that creates theatre but degrades the meteorlogist's standing by over-refining a complex set of assumptions. Bring back stick on weather symbols, side-burns and beige suits!

A number of things worth noting: 1.Temperate rainforests, whilst rare and interesting turn over less C02 than their tropical cousins. 2.There is evidence that planting some tree species in temperate zones actually increase C02 output and may just break even. 3.Planting trees in the UK for carbon credit is politically motivated and has almost no reality in mitigating the vast volumes of greenhouse gases we produce 4.The tropical rainforests have been known for many years to be the principle global climate controlling ecosystem. Planting Scottish hillsides with trees is about as useful as a chocolate teapot