patrickshere
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Everything posted by patrickshere
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Can confirm that's entirely wrong, we were in the snow section and have seen none at all, just rain, where as luton to the east seems to have done much better. -
Been pouring with rain here for a fair while, sucks. No snow down here for sure, had a flurry before the main band earlier... Not even close to sleet, just pure rain.
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Snow almost all day here in Aylesbury, light -> moderate at occasional times.. Hard to tell you how much fresh snow we've had today, but I'd wager about 5cm. The roads aren't fun, even the main ones - just had to pop out and it's very slippy. Presumably because it's a sunday night and no one's driving. Going to be rough for the people doing a 6am commute tomorrow with the forecasted temps.
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Westward makes no difference to you, the front extends far out into the north sea. It makes a huge difference to us though, as we are just on the lighter extremities at the moment. The snows coming, it'll be with you in no time.
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This was never meant to be much of an event for the extreme east, it was always a matter of how far east the front will get before dying, the further south / west you were without getting rain, the better more or less. Sunday looks good for the entire region though. Westward movement is good for everyone, because it brings colder air in and means that for those further east in the region any move east won't move you out of the frame. Also, IMO unlikely to be sleet/rain at least 10-15 miles inland from the coast, anyway. 10cm progged for eastern parts by the GFS. GFS: UKMO:
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Just over 10cm /4" here, small village on the outskirts of Aylesbury.
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Aylesbury/St Albans/High Wycombe is towards the back of the precipitation now, so not sure it'll pep up much more now for us, if it does I'd expect that to primarily be a bonus for Cambridge, Braintree, Colechester, Peterborough, etc. Love to be proven wrong though! Especially now I've left the office, and am warm back at home..
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Looks like the front is starting to fizzle out now, precipitation in Aylesbury has died down a fair bit. People in Colchester - expecting you to get hit within the next hour or so by the big london blob. I wouldn't expect too much though from looking at the radar. Sunday will be your day I think + should get some through this evening.
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People are so stupid, witnessed 2 bumper to bumper crashes so far out of my office window, there's not that much snow on the road, but people are just flying down at 30-40pm as usual and leaving no space, sigh. Edit: front is intensifying on the radar...
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Definitely, the light snow last night didn't stick here either, but it was ~2 degrees then. Today even the very light snow was sticking.. Snow has picked up even more here since my last post, not sure how long it'll be sticking around at this intensity, but wouldn't take long to get a fair accumulation at this rate. Sunday is also looking increasingly good for our region incidentally everyone, it wouldn't surprise me if we see more then than today.
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St Albans / Luton is looking good, about to get hit by the heavier precip.
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Snow has got a fair bit heavier now in Aylesbury.. After light snow since 9am, last 30 mins or so it's settling on main roads which have been gritted. If it keeps up for that much longer I'll be leaving the office early I think. edit: attached an image of conditions here at the moment
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Much the same problem, most intense precipitation is both north and south of us in terms of the front. We've probably had about a cm or so though since 8.30.
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Not meant to have any snow yet, wasn't forecasted to start in your area until probably 10-10.30am, we've only got flakes in Aylesbury right now, and we're 15-20 odd miles south west of you. Should mean more, just waiting for the 06z NAE to come out to see what that says (i.e. if there's much change from the 00z)... Although at this stage it's really down to watching the radar.
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Light snow started just outside Aylesbury.
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No snow yet, can see on the radar the front is about to start affecting us here. Doesn't look to be signs of it weakening yet either. Wasn't any snow projected here by the 00z NAE until after 9am, think it's slightly ahead of schedule. Heading into work, but will leave early if roads start looking too bad. Quite windy here incidentally, not gonna be fun driving/walking out there if there's any significant snowfall.
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Just realised it's my bad, the totals haven't dropped. I was looking at one of the charts wrong. Ignore my previous comment. It's just going to be luck as to whether you get 5cm or 15cm by the looks of things!
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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
patrickshere replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Laying snow will bring temps down though, and until snow is on the ground, models will struggle to accommodate for that. If there's 10cm of snow on the ground from Friday, I'm not sure I can see precipitation on Monday falling as anything but snow itself, unless somehow the Atlantic completely smashes through the block. -
How weird, still nothing here in Aylesbury.
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The precipitation over Aylesbury isn't giving any snow by the way, presumably it's because the cold continental air is so dry that it's not making it to the ground. I'd avoid getting too excited over the precipitation over our area + out to the west for now, it'll give a dusting at best, but most likely nothing. Tomorrow is when the real fun starts, with an upgrade in precipitation from both the latest NAE & GFS for our area... 10cm+ now possible for a wide chunk of our region IMO.
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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
patrickshere replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Accumulation of snow from the latest NAE. Slightly more favourable away from the SW than the 6Z was in terms of precipitation amounts. Bit of something for everyone minus the far SW + coastal areas far NW and parts of Scotland/Ireland. 5cm+ widely, with some lucky areas (likely be a matter of radar watching for heaviest precip in most cases) getting 10cm+, and 20-40cm looks possible in south wales + the mountains in north wales. -
Bit far east for the heaviest, but should get some snow, at least a few cm. Is a good graphic of the latest NAE run, which shows precipitation accumulation over the next 48 hours (so doesn't yet include Saturday's light snow).
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The "best" part for snow is South Wales. Although perhaps people will be wishing it wasn't the best, when they get 30+ cm of snow tomorrow and blizzard conditions. Lots of people are going to be left stranded in cars, and temperatures at night going into the weekend & next week with lying snow could approach -15 -> -20 the way things are forecasted, especially in the higher areas. For much of our area/region, the further south and west you are in it, the better. Most favoured I'd say are south bucks & south/west herts. Think High Wycombe, Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross, etc... I'd expect Berkshire to do very well indeed, but not covered by this thread. For me in Aylesbury, I'm expecting somewhere in the region of 4-10cm given the current charts by the end of Saturday, what actually happens will be mostly down to how fast the front moves across the country. For us, we want it to move slightly faster than progged.
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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
patrickshere replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'd wait until this event is done before predicting where will get snow and rain in the event on monday! Things can still change today, and if there's lying snow bringing temps down it can make a fair difference to how long the precipitation stays as snow / if it turns to rain at all. -
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.
patrickshere replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
pistolpetes11, Good post, about time someone put that stupid myth to rest.
